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The State-by-State Argument for Obama
The Wall Street Journal has an Obama camp memo to superdelegates detailing Obama's strengths against McCain in the general election. It goes through the big states and the swing states.
The part I like is about the new states:
Making new states competitive
• Colorado: Obama up 3, Clinton down 14. (Rasmussen, 4/19) A February poll showed up Obama up 9 and Clinton down 6. (SurveyUSA, 2/28)
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 13. (Rasmussen, 3/17)
• North Dakota: Obama up 4, Clinton down 19. (SurveyUSA, 2/28)
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 29. (Survey USA, 2/28)
• Virginia: Obama down 8, Clinton down 16. (SurveyUSA, 4/17)
Among Independents: Obama up 10, Clinton down 8. (SurveyUSA, 3/16)
• Montana: Obama down 5, Clinton down 18 (Rasmussen, 4/6)
Obama down 2, Clinton down 12 (Rasmussen, 4/6)
• Texas: Obama down only 1, Clinton down 7 (SurveyUSA, 2/28)
Colorado is my state, and I think the polls are quite right. There are Obama bumper stickers and yard signs all over the place, none for any other candidate.
(Okay, that's not entirely true. There are a lot of Ron Paul bumper stickers, too. And there was a guy down the way who used to have Ron Paul's name spelled out in Christmas lights on his deck. I have yet to see Obama's name spelled out in Christmas lights.)
Comments (5)
I think there's a very strong chance that Obama will take Colorado if he's the Dem. nominee. I'm a Colorado native (as a military spouse who has lived in 7 different places in 12 years, my husband and I still answer "Colorado" when someone asks where we're from).
Nearly everyone I know under 50 in Colorado is an Obama supporter. And that's saying a lot, my brother-in-law is a fundamentalist Southern Baptist from Colorado Springs who told me in January that Coloradans would never vote for a black guy. That opinion lasted until right after the Feb. 5 caucus, and now even he's going to vote for him.
April 29, 2008 2:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
What helps Obama here is that he faces less competition. The right just isn't crazy about McCain, and they won't generate excitement for him. The most hard right folks I know still aren't sold on Obama, but when asked if they're going to vote for McCain, they just sort of sigh and say "probably" in the most unenthused way possible.
April 29, 2008 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nice. Texas may be in play?
April 29, 2008 7:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
O Phoebe - bless you! Obama only down 1 in Texas.
WoooooooooooooHoooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
April 29, 2008 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Having Texas in play would be amazing! And even if he can't take it, he can force McCain to give it a lot of resources. The Obama fundraising power is going to hurt McCain in a whole lot of ways.
April 29, 2008 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
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