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The Inevitable Media Fatigue
Wright. Bitter. Tuzla. Blue-Collar. Pennsylvania. Superdelegates. Wright. Bill Clinton. Gaffe #1. Flag-Pin. Gaffe #2. And did I mention Wright?
One thing that we're finding hard to see is that ALL of the above will be entirely washed away once Obama is the nominee. I don't mean for a minute to say that they won't come back: many of them will. But things will change. Hugely.
The media is right now facing an inevitable fatigue in the Democratic Nomination. This hasn't always been the case: they liked the continued fighting through March, and the Ohio and Texas showdown was gold for them. But they're getting bored. You can see it in the speed of the media cycles. This "resurgence" of the Wright issue was over by midday. Drudge was running (still is) the piece on Obama having the lead from Senators. Then the poll came out saying that CLINTON polls better among independents - which is unheard of.
What is happening is that the campaign, and the media coverage of it, is becoming erratic. The campaigns, the blogs, the MSM pundits, the news editors: we're all becoming so obsessively introspective (and I'm guilty of this too) with our own family fight, that we just can't see how BIG a story it will be when Obama - finally, and for good - slays Goliath. It will be huge news. Imagine something that is so enormous that when you're right up close to it, you can't see it. With a build-up that has gone on four times as long as it should have, this will be an event so seismic, so tectonic, that it will completely change the game.
Here's how. First of all, Wright, Flag Pins, Bitter, Superdelegates & co will be shelved, at least for a few months. The media will realize that they've been pretty bored with the whole Obama-Clinton farrago over the last five or six months, and they'll suddenly see that there's a whole new contest for them to cover: Obama-McCain. And since Obama has faced much of the heat recently, even the McCain-ass-licking McSame-lovin' MSM will *finally* get around to changing their focus - if only because a different face on their screens will boost ratings and keep the goldfish-like attention span of their viewers hanging on for just a few more cycles.
Aside from the media change, the polls will change. Any General Election poll right now is meaningless, and we all know why. My instinct, and most will probably agree, is that Obama will shoot up by 5 to 10 points against McCain with Clinton out of the picture.
So the moral is this: don't worry about Wright. In fact, embrace his cock-ups. We're in a beautiful situation right now - 99% sure that Obama is the nominee, but still acting like we're competing for the nomination. What this means is that we can talk ad infinitum about our "weak spots", since it will all be long-forgotten as soon as the game-changing, monumental, big-as-the-earth-itself news breaks that Clinton has been defeated.











Comments (10)
Concur 100%. I posted my bit ~3 minutes after you with similar sentiments.
April 28, 2008 8:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
His chances of getting the nomination are dwindling even faster than I thought.
But even if he gets the nomination, you are forgetting one thing. The media loves McCain more than they love Obama. McCain proved to be a comeback kid. And if Obama gets the nod, he will have take everything the press gives him, just like Clinton has had to do.
And he won't get away with "like answering 3 questions" so he can go back to eat his waffle.
April 28, 2008 8:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
"media loves McCain more than they love Obama"
-I understand the sentiment here, and it's common knowledge around these parts that McCain is the biggest media darling there is.... but honestly, I don't think we've really had an objective chance to assess whether he's a *bigger* darling than Obama, since they've not yet been in comparable circumstances.
Our current understanding of the media's interest in McCain is based on either a) his time as a Senator, b) his Primary campaign, which was over very quickly, and c) his campaign as Nominee, which doesn't count because the Dem contest isn't over yet - none of which we can really compare to Obama as the almost-nominee.
Don't get me wrong - he's a serial fare-evader when it comes to getting a free ride, but I just don't think we can draw comparisons to media treatment at this point, since there have never been comparable situations.
April 28, 2008 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes you make all the great points. But in the end it's going to be the battle of American Hero versus Wright The Guide. Throw in POW status versus a deflated "what happened to the Movement" campaign. Despite all the good arguments you raise, it's hard to see how it would realistically work out any other way.
April 28, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, maybe. You just know that the media will be obsessing over whether Wright not proving fatal to Obama in the Dem. primaries means that Wright won't prove fatal to Obama in the GE.
April 28, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Quoting truth.
Old scandals never die, they just get pushed to a slow-news day. Hillary's still trying to explain shit that happened in 1993. Obama's going to have to live with Wright and flag pins for the rest of his political career.
April 28, 2008 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't this exactly the point? Most people at TPM seem to be acting as though Wright is going to define this campaign. My point is merely this: if you thought that Wright was a media tsunami in terms of coverage, just wait to see the tidal wave when the status quo of the Presidential Election is turned on its head by - shock horror - having only two candidates!
Wright will linger, but it won't define.
April 28, 2008 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
It won't define the campaign (except for putting it on permanent defense). But it already defined the candidate.
April 28, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hate to rain on the premature parade, but I'nm not at all convinced that Sen. Obama IS going to be nominated (And, yes, I'm pretty well up on the delegate math).
I don't think you have to be a Clinton die-hard to believe that Obama is taking on water, and is still pretty far from shore.
As it happens, I AM a strong Clinton supporter, but one who tends toward realism. If I were absolutely convinced it was over, I sure wouldn't be wasting my time in here.
HOW can she win? By the Slate Magazine definitions, I'm a "Momentucrat". If Sen. Obama doesn't get back on a convincing winning track very soon, SD's are likely to take a hard 2nd look. Not easy at this point to tell how that might go.
April 28, 2008 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that it's a rough patch for Obama, and I agree that if he doesn't "get back on a convincing winning track very soon, SD's are likely to take a hard 2nd look".
But I think, ultimately, it's pretty easy to see how that 2nd look will - eventually - go: they'll be faced with the prospect overturning or approving the results of the contest. It would take an utter implosion of the Obama campaign from now-on for them to be convinced to take the former route - and even then, my sense is that SDs would wait around and force us into a convention floor-fight, as if that would somehow make their (in)decision seem more 'democratic'.
April 28, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
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