“To me, it's important to understand that Clinton's argument that Obama can't win the big blue states is disingenuous. Obama's performance relative to Clinton in PA, NY, CA, etc. simply cannot be used as evidence that McCain can beat Obama in those states. It's far more complicated than the Clinton campaign would suggest, and the numbers vis a vis McCain will change dramatically once we have an actual nominee.”

Sigh I think you’re only seeing what you want to see. Crucially, what will the superdelegates see? Currently McCain poll trounces Obama in Florida 53-38, where Clinton beats him 45-44 (Rasmussen). In Ohio, Clinton polls 53 to McCain’s 42, whereas McCain beats Obama 47-45. (SUSA) In Missouri, Clinton’s on a statistical tie with McCain, (beats him 47-46) while McCain beats Obama 50-42. (SUSA) In Massachusetts, Clinton pummels McCain 56-41 - 15 points - whereas Obama’s on a statistical tie with him 48-46. (SUSA) Clinton’s even managed to get it to a statistical tie in Kentucky before general campaigning’s started, where McCain trounces Obama, 63-29. (SUSA)
On top of all that, a Democratic nominee is going to have terrible trouble getting the prerequisite electoral votes if he/she can’t win the catholic and the blue collar vote in Philadelphia, where a horrendous number of people who’d voted for Clinton said in the exit voting they wouldn’t vote for Obama.
The SD’s aren’t going to be looking just at Clinton-v-Obama so far. Theyr’e going to be looking at both of them –v- McCain.
This isn’t to argue that Obama couldn’t by any stretch of the imagination possibly win the general once he had the entire Democratic establishment campaigning for him and tearing into McCain’s image and policies.
What it does demonstrate is that the superdelegates who don’t have a powerful bias to either candidate must by now be losing confidence in him as a viable candidate cf Clinton. They must be having nightmares about what his candidacy would be like imagining the Wright, Ayers, elitist swiftboating day after day. Obama may well be looking to them like the high risk factor candidate.
I’d imagine the one thing that could boost him with them now would be if his campaign could come up with internal polling that shows the SD’s that her high unfavourable ratings are extant in enough crucial states that matter – aren’t hugely skewed by safe red states.
One of the most tragic things about all this for me is thinking about how marvellous African-Americans must have felt after Iowa – a purely white state voting so strongly for a black man. How uplifting that must have been…. And now how brought down they must feel seeing just how virulent & enduring the race factor still is. So sad.