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The beginning of the end?
I have been confidently predicting for weeks now that Indiana would go
for Obama. I thought that even before I made the trip to canvas
there a few weeks back, but getting out and knocking on doors in
Indianapolis only made me even more convinced of the claim. As
such, I was pleased but not surprised to see that Survey USA
has just released a poll showing the state flipping over to an Obama
lead. My track records as a prophet is rather spotty, but I am
going on record now to say that this will be the new trend in IN polls
and that Obama will go on to win Indiana on May 6, albeit only by
single digits.











Comments (35)
I hope you're right, Greg.
April 18, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're right as well, but I fear the wrath of mouth-breathing troglodyte Republicans and their efforts to pollute the election.
April 18, 2008 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
we'll see, greg... it's going to be an interesting 2 weeks between PA and IN/NC... the polling in IN has been kinda spotty, so we'll have to see how it goes. also, i'm no expert on IN, but i would expect that the the urban centers will be more obama territory (where you got that strong feeling) and the suburbs and more rural areas will favor hillary. i've been canvassing for hillary in the philly suburbs for the last 3 weekends and based on that i don't see how obama can get within 20 pts of hillary... of course, if i had been canvassing in philly proper, then i'm sure that i'd be saying that obama was going to win in a landslide... glad to hear that you're out there stumping for your candidate in IN... i hope that you are enjoying it as much as i have in PA.
April 18, 2008 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
In addtion to the urban centers of Indiana, the northwest corner of the state is essentially a suburb of Chicago. I'm not sure how that will affect the demographics (or even what percentage of the state it makes up) but it seems to be an X factor when comparing Indiana to the other states this cycle.
April 18, 2008 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
As you said, we will see. Meanwhile, I did have a good time canvassing in IN and I am glad to hear that you have enjoyed your time in PA.
April 18, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Incidentally, my predictions about Indiana have less to do with my canvassing experience than with my thoughts about Indiana demographics. It is a red state, and Obama does (on average) better than Clinton in red states. Among those few democrats that can be found in IN, the largest single concentration of them are living in the northwest corner of the state in an area that might as well be part of IL as far as the residents there are concerned, so he will enjoy something not unlike a home-field advantage in that part of the state. Meanwhile, the democratic electorate in IN is disproportionately young, and Sen Obama does better (on average) than Sen Clinton among younger voters. These advantages will not add up to a landslide, but they will add up to a victory (or so I predict) for Obama.
April 18, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kensdad, I an not sure what part of the Philly 'burbs you have been canvassing in but over in my neck o' the woods in Delaware County, PA there seems to be a very strong bent for Obama. I guess we will just have to see what happens on Tuesday.
April 18, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
the last two polls showed obama leading by 11 in philly burbs, and then only by 2 after bitter but before the debate.
April 19, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's hope!
April 18, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The end began weeks ago, but I nevertheless certainly welcome the excellent news, especially coming from SUSA.
April 18, 2008 3:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point. Perhaps I should have called this thread "the tail end of the beginning of the end."
April 18, 2008 3:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or, "The beginning of the middle of the end."
April 19, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, this town isn't big enough for two Bullwinkles!
April 19, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
It has been brought to my attention that, while this SUSA poll is the icing on the cake, as it were, the last three polls Indiana have all shown Obama ahead, so evidently the news is even better than I had originally implied on this post. See also the Downs Center and LA Times polls.
April 18, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
They may well go for Obama, but knocking on doors in Indianapolis is a hell of a lot different than knocking on doors in Evansville or Lawrenceburg.
April 18, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that by the time November rolls around, the muslim, Wright, flag pen, barrage will be staler than whole wheat bread at a Wendy's restaurant, and people will ignore all of that and focus on McCain's Bushwacked policies and how much trouble the Republicans have gotten us into.
My firm belief is that Obama will win handedly once he gets Clinton off of his back. I think she is much more dangerous in her attacks than the Republicans will be. This is a Democratic year, and Obama will be the next president!
Wanakee Hill
April 18, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's supporters have proven their ability to gather new supporters, not only from the ranks of their opponents, but also from the ranks of the disinterested, disenfranchised and disenchanted.
"Hope" has a way of curing all three of those anti-democracy ailments.
And, once the nominee is determined, most of the trash-talkers and hardbloggers in the Democratic party who are now desperately defending Hillary by offending Barack will turn their ire and their very-poison-pens against McCain.
And considering stories that the media has softballed, like his "Songbird" POW label, his notorious hair-trigger temper, and more contemporary matters like refusing to reveal his wife's taxes, when those bloggers turn on McCain, it will make the anti-Kerry swiftboaters look like pre-school playground bullies.
Anyone who thinks "the blogs" aren't that powerful, just remember "macaca." George Allen was at one time the presumptive Republican frontrunner in this presidential race, now he's political cosmic dust.
McCain and his handlers have no idea just how angry he's going to get, when his anti-American audio tapes from N Viet Nam get exhaustively extrapolated by the truth hunters among us. It won't be pretty, but then, neither is McCain.
Viva la Blogs!
April 19, 2008 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Indiana, in some ways, is demographically similar to PA. But Indiana is consistently Republican. Not a lot of city population, and not particularly industrial at that. PA has been devastated by a number of heavy industries going bust (coal, steel), so there is a bit more of a Dem sentiment there. Indiana is largely similar to non-urban Ohio and Southern Indiana feeds right into that Northern KY/Southern Ohio problem.
What problem? Someone has to explain to me what rational reason was there for West Virginia to go to Bush. I can understand KY and TN--not that they have particularly rational reasons (unless you count being a bigoted ass a rational reason to vote Republican--and there is plenty of that in Indiana). But not WV. And, as the mining safety record has shown, much of it was voting against self- --and national--interest. Southern Ohio is in the same tank--stubbornly conservative and interminably stupid. These people are below the poverty line--and they are not even in small towns. There is absolutely no logical reason--however twisted--that these people should be voting Republican. Southern Indiana is just as bad.
As for the rest of Indiana, it's been the most fertile ground for KKK breeding in several stretches of American history. Lucky for Obama, most of these bums really are Republican (and would not vote for HRC even if they wanted to play spoiler).
So the difference between PA and IN is that in PA the conservatives are often Dems. In IN, they are usually Republican. And HRC has been getting the more conservative Dems all along.
BTW, unlike Obama, I don't mind being elitist--I am not running for office.
April 18, 2008 7:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
Winnie the Churchill
April 18, 2008 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or play the game existence to the end
Of the beginning, of the beginning...
John Lennon
April 18, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the boots on the ground, Greg! I think you are right, if things continue as they are, and it certainly seems that the snowball is accelerating....
I would love for our May 20 Oregon primary not to count....
April 19, 2008 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree . But part of me doesn't want to see the remaining Oregon super delegates get out of endorsing Obama now. I'll be opposing them in every upcoming primary for the rest of their careers.
April 19, 2008 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been predicting Obama in Indiana right along with you, though I haven't been knocking on doors. First, it's primarily farm belt, not rust belt, and Obama hasn't lost any states in the farm belt. Second, it borders his home state of IL. Third, the polls, while highly variable, have been relatively close even before Obama has had his pre-primary growth spurt. I expect that growth to put him over the top.
April 19, 2008 2:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Canvassers tend to engage with people who agtee with them, once the body language and verbal posturing has determined agreement.
So it is always likely that someone will think they find more support for their own candidate, because they avoid prolonged exposure to hostility or negativity and at the same time gravitate towards approval.
Human nature can really mess up objectivity.
April 19, 2008 8:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're certainly right. But here in Oregon, at least, I've noticed that the younger Obama canvassers are turned on trying to convince Clintonites.
April 19, 2008 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sure, sure, no argument there. One way or the other, however, I am still confidently predicting that IN goes for Obama.
April 19, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're right. But doesn't Indiana have large segments of voters that fit Hillary's demographic?
April 19, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
All states have a large segment of voters who fit Clinton's demographics. No state has yet gone 100% for either candidate (although I suppose that Hawaii came pretty darn close). My point is not that Sen Clinton has no support in IN, but rather that Obama has more. That said, I expect it to be a narrow victory, not a lopsided 20 pt spread or suchlike.
April 19, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Greg, You've been predicting "The End" for a long while now. I think your putting some wishful thoughts in here.
April 19, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fair enough, although I hope you can appreciate the irony of you challenging the wishful thinking of another man's posts. Given the repeated iterations of the "he will shortly implode" warning, I can only read your reply as halfwise in earnest. I am sure that the other half must be meant in jest.
Still and all, I guess that in a few weeks we will see who is right and who is merely hopeful.
April 19, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Glad to hear you're there on the ground.
Short of some sort of astonishing blow-out victory by Clinton in PA, and an improbable win in North Carolina, and some superdelegates flipping, the end is definitely near.
While I hate to deny Oregon voters the circus the primaries have been, I devoutly hope that primary doesn't matter, either.
April 19, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an Oregon voter, I'm on the fence about whether I'd like her to stick in through our primary or not. Having both campaigns focus on Oregon would be a nice chance to bring national attention to some of the major energy and environmental issues here- especially our current fight to return state rights to siting LNG terminals. (A right taken away by Bush & Co.)And Oregon would provide a great background for discussing green energy programs and tying them to the economy. Bringing both candidates to the state would increase attention on these types of issues, which haven't had much discussion yet in the campaign.
Also, vigorous campaigning in the primary usually builds voter turnout in a state, and it really helps down ballot candidates.
On the other hand, it's frustrating to sit on the sidelines through all the trashy campaign rhetoric dished out by the Clintons. Some say that all the trumped up issues will then be stale news by the general election because the Clintons are running with them ad nauseum. But just as likely, the Clinton camp is simply doing the work of setting the stage for the Repug's 527 groups.
I'm furious with the MSM for giving validity to a lot of the trash that's circulating on the blogs, and I hope there's some sort of public backlash against the sort of insulting coverage we've been given.
Best scenario I can think of right now is Barack coming really close in Penn, and taking both NC and IA. Then Clinton stays in through Oregon (Yes, selfish, I admit.) but is forced to drop the negativity because she's looking for a more graceful exit.
Well, one can hope!
(An Oregon Grandma for Obama on the left coast)
April 19, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hoosier daddy, Hillary?
April 19, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
A fight to the finish. It is between The blogging world & the MSM. May we be as successfull as we think we are.
April 19, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hats off to you for your on the ground work for the campaign. I admire people who drive to other states for this cause very deeply. I had predicted IN for Obama by 1, and then felt like she was trending toward a plus 5 or so. While the state polls have bounced around, they are bouncing better for Obama now. His performance in the debate was not his best, but I think the key metric is the poll showing him doing slightly better against McCain than does Hillary. Though it's narrow, that's the one that gives me the most heart, not only because it's corroborative of other pro-O polls, but because other states in which that's true have typically tipped O > C.
But you da man for making it happen.
April 19, 2008 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
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