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SurveyUSA Questions?
I keep seeing SurveyUSA held up as the most reliable pollster this go round since they were spot on in California and Ohio. I'm just wondering if anyone knows what their track record is in the other 30-some states that have voted.
Also, how's there track record in the state's Obama has won? Did they correctly forecast any of his blowout wins?
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Comments (7)
I just looked at their South Carolina forecast and they hit HRC's number spot on but underestimated BHO's number by 12.
April 9, 2008 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, yeah, but there's a bit of a difference between SC and PA. How they did in Ohio and Wisconsin would be better measures.
April 9, 2008 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
SUSA blew it in MO. Their 2/2-2/3 poll had HRC 54 BHO 43 +11HRC and we all know how that one turned out.
Check out Real Clear Politics, go to polls, click on "More States" in the side bar and then click any state you want. They have final results and every major poll that was taken. Great resource.
To go beyond the facts and figures: A friend of mine and I took a look at all the races where HRC seriously outperformed (at least some of) the polls. This was a while ago, so we were mainly looking at Super Tuesday results.
One trend we noted was...early voting. CA had it, MO didn't. TN had it, NJ had it. So did IL and GA though.
The theory is that many of these states didn't "move" as much post Iowa when compared to non-early voting states. And in some instances CA and MO a couple pollsters blew it big time. Zogby in CA and SUSA in MO.
Food for thougt.
April 9, 2008 12:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey Wolf1739, that would make for a great Diary. Let us know what you find.
April 9, 2008 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
They nailed Ohio and weren't polling in WI
April 9, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
They also nailed MD, but underestimated BHO and overestimated HRC by 2 or 3 each in VA.
April 9, 2008 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
M Miller has a post up today regarding this exact question.
It's broken down by every state that SurveyUSA polled and then compares to actual results.
Great minds, I guess.
Here's the url:
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/04/surveyusa-track-record.php
April 9, 2008 12:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
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