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So what's the scenario, Hillary fans
Obama said some true things but said them in a very clumsy fashion, and it's hurting him. In the end I think he'll probably pull out of it, but it will probably cost him a bit. The Hillary supporters have little else to cling to, so they're whooping it up, of course.
But when was the last time you heard a Hillary supporter suggest a scenario in which Hillary could win? Other than some sort of huge scandal and total meltdown of the Obama campaign, I mean. Obviously that's a scenario, however unlikely, in which Hillary (or perhaps even someone like Gore chosen to try to unify the party) could win.
When was the last time you heard a Hillary supporter suggest any other scenario, and back it up with numbers?
The numbers are the catch. Here's some analysis to get them started:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/archive/2008/04/11/the-deal-with-add-ons.aspx
if the two candidates hypothetically split the remaining pledged delegates 50-50, then, given the likely allocation of add-ons, Clinton would need to win a whopping 90 percent of the remaining 230 or so superdelegates to get the nomination.
The "add-ons" haven't gotten much attention, but that's part of the math.
Hand-waving about the popular vote won't get her the nomination. Ultimately, like it or not, it's a race for delegates. So let's see the math, Hillary fans. State-by-state, pledged delegates and superdelegates and add-ons.
Does she get 90% of the remaining 230 superdelegates? Is that your scenario? Keep in mind that since Feb 5 Hillary has had a net loss of superdelegates, while Obama has gained more than 70.
If not that, then what? With numbers, please, showing a scenario (other than a major Obama meltdown) in which she comes up with enough delegates.
On the other hand, if you realize that the remaining primaries and the add-ons and so on don't add up to a Hillary victory UNLESS Obama has a major setback far worse than the Wright thing, then fine. Just say so.
Comments (19)
I think the remaining contests are important for no other reason then to get Dems "fired up" and registered to vote in the General.
It's got to be pretty cool to think you've got some say so at this late date. They do, too, actually. It's unlikely they will change the scenario, but they could.
That said, I'm worried about the concern trolls among us sowing hatred for one candidate or the other. That will undo all the good the contentious and emotionally exhausting primary has accomplished.
As for Hillary's chances? I think not. Barring anything other than Obama is found to be a cannibal, (highly unlikely), it's his to lose.
I don't see that happening as long as he sticks to his guns, and keeps telling it like it is. He'll need all the help he can get, which is why I object so strenuously to the Clinton trashing.
April 12, 2008 3:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the super delegates. How would you like to be a super delegate from a rural, church-going community today? Particularly one who had already come out in support of Obama.
Think about what he's done to Casey.
How badly is he hurt? Let's see what Pennsylvania and Indiana look like. That should tell the tale.
April 12, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good lord. I think this was a mistake, but "what he's done to Casey"?
Take a breath. We don't even know how much this is going to register.
(Okay, above the text box is the message "Hello BlueinColorado". I type my post and hit "send", I have to re-enter my username and password. I do. I hit "send". I'm told I have entered the wrong username and password. I hit "send" again, without changing anything, and it goes through. I am very bitter about this folderol).
April 12, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe I'm wrong. Doesn't Casey actually have to run as a "pro-life" candidate? Maybe I have him mixed up with someone else.
April 12, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's pro-life, yeah. But I don't see the connection to this; and he just got in last round, he won't be running again till 2012.
April 12, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the super delegates. How would you like to be a super delegate from a rural, church-going community today?
But are 90% of the superdelegates from rural, church-going communities?
No.
Where does she come up with the delegates she needs to win? Between the pledged delegates and the add-ons she's got a large gap to close. Waving your hands about rural, church-going communities isn't going to make it happen.
April 13, 2008 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just repeating myself for the millionth time. This thing does not end before the convention. The Supers that are left can decide it one way or another without risking political suicide. It goes to the convention. First ballot the Supers have to stay out as well because of aforementioned suicide........From the second ballot on....Everyone is on their own. My bet is that among actual Democrats. She will win it.
April 12, 2008 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
My bet is that among actual Democrats. She will win it.
My favorite Clintonite meme: "actual Democrats". The highest estimates of self-identified Democrats is about 43%. Hard to win a general election with that number.
April 12, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't get your nighty in a knot. Would you agree that there have been a lot of Independents and Republicans voting in the Dem primaries? Yes. Would there then be nothing but ACTUAL democrats in Denver yes. Simple truth.
April 12, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, rather than predicting 90% or more of the remaining super-delegates will vote for Hillary, you're simply predicting that 90% or more of the remaining super-delegates will either sit out the first round or vote for Hillary?
This is a sincere question, although I assume you can tell that if that's what you're saying, I think it's highly unlikely.
April 12, 2008 4:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Appreciate the question Ben. Yes, most of the supers are going to sit out the game now. If they don't and its their votes that settle this one way or another, can you imagine the blowback from either Hillary or Obama supporters? No, they can't risk that. Those odds get higer if she wins PA. As well, they can't get involved in the first votes or else you have the same scenario.
I can't imagine a worse GE scenario if the Supers decide this one way or another either before the convention or on the first vote. Each side of the battle will feel betrayed. The amount of people either staying home or jumping will be larger. Its really not about the GE for President but the knockon effect down the ticket. The party has boxed itself into a very very difficult corner. Throw in the Michigan/Florida fiasco....and viola.....what a f- uped mess.
April 12, 2008 4:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm…
I feel a wager coming on. If it's decided on or before the first vote, you have to change your display name to Louisville I love Obama 1975, and if not (whether it ultimately goes to Obama or Clinton), I'll change mine to a name of your choosing. What say you?
(To reduce the pain, we could agree on a one-month period before you're allowed to change your name back.)
April 12, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ben,
Late to that one but if you want a bet like that I am up for it. You have to decide though if you want "I Love Obama 1975" to be slagging Obama. Your choice.
April 12, 2008 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
You've got a point. Maybe it should be "Louisville I underestimated Obama 1975". A) It'd be more accurate (assuming you lost the bet, of course), and B) It doesn't have the advocate slogging Obama drawback. What would be my name if I lost?
April 12, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ben, You have aged before my eyes! But in a good way! We really have to meet at some point on the downtown mall. I missed First Friday in April, due to taking my son for college visits, but maybe May? It would be great.
I went to the Festival of the Book thing at the Paramont with Mike Farell, and now I am helping organize parents/citizens to donate books to the Quest Bookstore for prisons. They especially want books about math and computer self-educating programs.
I also have lots of books for young males that I am trying to get to detention facilities. The Free Clinic has a library for girls as well. Truth is, I just de-cluttered one room in my house, and my biggest job is deciding where to take all of it!
April 12, 2008 10:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the Victor French beard, isn't it?
Sure. It'd be nice to know someone on this blog IRL.
Well, about 1/4 my library is dedicated to books on math or computers. Maybe I can pare it down somewhat (although I pared it down for a similar cause a year or two ago). I don't think any of those books are geared towards youth, however. Since my wife and I have never had any children, we have no kids' books.
April 12, 2008 11:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know rabbit hussein smorgasbord. It seems that we have gone over these scenarios over and over again. This Clinton supporter does cling onto things such as the possibility of a meltdown or something close to it. Why not. Obama hasn't closed the deal and if Clinton can cut significantly into Obama's lead, I think she will have a good case at the convention - even without over taking him because it will put the votes from FL and MI into the spotlight.
Obviously she has to do well in the upcoming primaries to have a chance. If Obama continues to make "bitter" mistakes, his image will erode. And as far as I'm concerned, image is all he's got.
April 12, 2008 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can understanding still hoping she will win and helping her to do so, but do you think it's likely?
April 12, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems that we have gone over these scenarios over and over again. This Clinton supporter does cling onto things such as the possibility of a meltdown or something close to it.
The possibility of a meltdown is one way Clinton could win. Although I'll point out again that in that event, the party may get to the convention in such chaotic shape that Hillary's theme of "delegates can vote for anyone they want" may not go the way she hopes, and a unifier like Gore could end up getting the nod. But we're talking very unlikely scenarios here.
You say "we have gone over these scenarios over and over again." But the point is that we haven't, other than the meltdown scenario. Hillary supporters simply don't address how she could close the gap in pledged delegates and add-ons, not when she needs (as in the analysis linked above) around 90% of the supers to close the deal.
You say "Clinton can cut significantly into Obama's lead". Yes, but so what? The numbers are against her. All that means is that she loses by a smaller margin.
You say "I think she will have a good case at the convention." But what do you mean by that. A good enough case to get 90% of the remaining supers?
April 13, 2008 12:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
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