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Signals, Noise and Polling

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The week started off in classic campaign form: a report of remarks made by Obama percolated through the media and came to dominate the news cycle. In typically circular fashion, the exhaustive coverage came to provide its own justification, as journalists covered the controversy that they had largely created.

The Oracle of Lancaster, G. Terry Madonna, took to the airwaves to proclaim that "unless [Obama] figures out a way to explain it in manner that makes more sense, I think this is probably going to damage his campaign in this state," and compared the remarks to gaffes that had sunk prior Pennsylvania campaigns, writing that they were "likely to do serious damage to his campaign in Pennsylvania." And he was among the more moderate critics. One thing that almost all of the reports shared was their focus on perception, rather than substance - the remarks were generally held to be newsworthy because they were likely to damage Obama politically, and so represented a turning point in the race.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the forum in Philadelphia. It turns out that despite the fuss, the remarks have had no discernable impact on the levels of support enjoyed by either candidate. We've had seven Pennsylvania polls released over the past two days, and not one shows a statistically significant gain for Hillary. The Quinnipiac poll spanned the weekend, but the pollsters found "no noticeable difference" in the responses after the news broke. And the national polls found no movement towards Hillary, either. Gallup dove back into its tracking poll data, breaking out voters by race, income, education, religion, and financial concerns - but whichever way it sliced the data, it reached the same conclusion:

It certainly appears that, as of April 14 interviewing, Obama's remarks have not hurt him -- either among the Democratic electorate as a whole or among the Democratic constituencies Obama was referring to....Gallup's general-election tracking data -- like that for the Democratic nomination -- have so far shown no deterioration in Obama's standing versus presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.
The lessons of this affair extend beyond the particular incident. Let's imagine, for a moment, that a few of these polls had shown Hillary picking up support, even by statistically insignificant margins. That's not an improbable scenario - the race seems to have held steady this week, and random variation alone might produce such results. Alternatively, Hillary could have made gains in the polls for reasons unrelated to the controversy. If, for example, most undecided voters are leaning her way (and there's evidence to support that), it'd be unsurprising to see her numbers rise in the final days before the election. In either case, though, those polling results would have been seized upon as conclusive proof that the controversy had damaged Obama, and fanned the flames. In fact, it's quite likely that this will still happen. In that same release, Gallup hedged that "Wednesday night's debate may shine a spotlight on those comments and make them known to a wider audience, so the possibility remains that Obama has not completely weathered the storm."

That's the danger of this sort of analysis, which focuses on transient controversies and then turns to volatile measures of public opinion to substantiate their significance. If you wait long enough, you'll get a poll that tells you what you want to hear. In fact, there are rarely this many polls in the field during a campaign, and the fewer polls, the greater the chance that random variation will seem to support the narrative. The only thing that seems able to prevent this conflation of correlation with causation is the eruption of another controversy, to which the apparent shifts can instead be ascribed.

It's a problem endemic to real-time coverage of campaigns. Many things become clear only in retrospect. When the longue durée is measured in days, not centuries, we often mistake signal noise for significance. Think, if you will, of the coverage of the stock market - you can get updates every 30 minutes, explaining in detail why the market is moving as it does, even though expected levels of volatility alone can explain most of these movements. I can tell you with a high level of confidence why the market moved as it did over a decade, a year, or in many cases even a quarter, but only a fool would claim to know why it moves as it does every half hour. These reports tend to focus on whatever economic indicator or earnings report has just been released as the causal explanation for broad movements. In a similar fashion, shifts in opinion polling tend to be ascribed to the stories that are dominating a given news cycle, and those stories receive much of the attention they do because they are presumed to be capable of shifting opinion. But the laws of probability tell us that some of those apparent shifts are bound to be illusory. Others may be the result of grass-roots organizing or social networking. And some will simply stem from voters becoming better acquainted with the candidates. Sorting the wheat from the chaff is no mean feat, but that humbling truth doesn't seem to impact coverage.

I don't mean to suggest that gaffes or controversies never change the minds of voters. Certainly, they do. And on occasion, after we've had several days to take stock of the data, the polling can even help us spot these crucial episodes. But all too often, the relentless focus on controversy serves to reinforce a superficial narrative that obscures the underlying forces and concerns that actually drive voter behavior. And that's a shame.

So I have a suggestion for reporters. The next time a controversy breaks, take a deep breath. Write it up, by all means, and put it on page A-3. And then give it a few days. If it's having an impact on voters, if it's altering the behavior of candidates on the stump, that'll become clear soon enough. When it does, you can run the sort of thoughtful, engaging piece of journalism that takes several days to prepare. And if it doesn't? Then you can focus on more significant stories. Either way, your coverage will improve. Isn't it at least worth a try?


Comments (55)

"Conflation of correlation with causation" is such lovely alliteration and would apply also to the grammatical construction at the center of the flap. If one substitutes "hold fast" for "cling" one gets "and so they hold fast to ...".

If there is a preexisting condition how can later inputs cause it?

Huh. This seems derivative to me. Cf Barthes, theory of destiny: "the mainspring of narrative is precisely the confusion of consecution and consequence". He describes this false assumption as "a logical fallacy denounced by Scholasticism in the formula 'Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc'"

HA! Plagiarism! Unless, of course, Roland Barthes happens to be your national co-chair, and told you to use it. If not: that's not analysis you can believe in, it's analysis you can xerox.

Of course I derive---I'm not a professional sematicist or philospher. Is it OK if I point out the obvious? I leave the subtlety to you.

Not being from academia, I will simply say I would not characterize narrative as in need of logical fallacies to drive it. Human experience is enough, and is outside of logic (except the evolutionary sort).

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Excellent advice. Think any reporters will take you up on it?

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Oh, I rather doubt it. For one thing, I'd be surprised if any reporters were reading this.

But more generally, reporters assigned to cover candidates are in a bind. They move with the candidates from event to event, in a ceaseless and exhausting race. They're expected to file daily stories, and these days, often blog updates or web stories, too. So they're facing an elevated demand for content with less time than most of their peers have to generate it. Throw in the fact that the entire media sector is suffering these days, and that the pressures of competition are increasingly elevated. Controversies may not often change votes, but they can lure viewers or sell papers, so assignment editors want their reporters in the field to cover these issues as they arise, at least in part to defray the exorbitant costs of keeping a reporter or team on the campaign trail. On top of all those pressures, many reporters genuinely feel that these controversies are important, a sense that's only fed by their total immersion in the campaign vortex, in which these things are deemed to be of earth-shattering importance. And remember that every journalist hates to be the last to a story.

So I'm not blind to the forces that demand this sort of coverage. But I do hope that a sense of humility might temper the temptation to proclaim particular events or controversies significant, at least a little. That much, at least, seems reasonable to ask.

Hey Fly,

Josh just put you on the front page!

Glad to see you're back. We were getting pretty bored here without you, and with no primaries to argue about. We started to re-run the 1908 presidential campaign, as you may have noticed.

There you go again, flaunting your cross of gold.

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WHO is behind the Barack Obama for President
"moo-vement"?

........ GE ....and a gaggle of other corporate elitists.

Are a lot of working class Americans Bitter?

Well, they SHOULD be: Another GE candidate for President (SOLD to the public by the Corporate-Controlled "Mainstream MEDIA)...Ronald Reagan...began the MASSIVE Robbery of the American people that has continued to this day.

About every day the TV Talking heads say: "The Rich are getting richer and everybody else is getting poorer"

...& You'd Think...after nearly 30 years they would FINALLY ASK: (& Answer) WHY?

The answer is simple: Reagan cut the top tax rate down from the 70%'s to the low 30%'s.

(If you made $100 million & your tax rate was 70% you would pay $70 million to Uncle Sam & keep $30 million...earning interest, or dividends THE NEXT YEAR on that $30 million. If, instead, you paid $30 million in taxes and KEPT $70 million-You'd make a lot MORE money the next year on that $70 million)

Simple: tax the rich a lot less AND they damn sure WILL get a whole lot richer a whole lot faster. There was 2 PARTS to Reaganomics tho. The second part was: "The Two-Tier Wage Structure"

i.e. Pay the Top level "executives" a Whole LOT MORE; Pay everybody else a Whole LOT LESS. (Newspapers & TV in the early 80's had articles & coverage of the "Two-Tier Wage Structure" that CORPORATE America trotted out IN CONCERT with Reagan's election & tax cuts.)

IF its CORPORATE POLICY to PAY Everybody else a WHOLE LOT LESS-everybody else is going to get-a whole lot poorer...huh?

a. It was deliberate. b. Its been going on for nearly 30 years.

Next Question: Is Obama likely to fix it?
Answer: Hell No. Because THE SAME PEOPLE are running him for President - The SAME WAY they got Reagan/ Bush1 / Bush2 elected: MEDIA PROPAGANDA.

GE owns MSNBC & NBC. AOL Time Warner owns CNN. Westinghouse owns CBS. (GE is the 2nd largest corporation on the planet). They have interlocking directorships. THEY ARE the Corporate-Controllers of the Corporate-Controlled Media.

MSNBC/NBC have become the CHIEF propaganda mouthpieces of the Obama Pushers (BOPN-Barack Obama Propaganda Networks)-just like FOX has been the the Bush Propaganda Network all these years.

There are no more Journalists, no more NEWS People. They have all become court jesters & clowns doing their bit to please their corporate masters..Top Level..PAID A WHOLE LOT MORE---Media whores.

Here's a glimpse of ONE of the $Billions of Dollar TAXPAYER-RIPOFF-Reasons GE wants to "elect" Obama President: GE & Westinghouse are in the business of building nuclear power plants.

The Cheney Energy Bill passed in 2005 - made it possible for the nuclear industry to begin planning to build 29 new nuclear power plants (licensing hearings are already scheduled for the first few of them).

No new nuke plants were built for 30 years because the banks wouldn't loan the money - too risky. The Cheney Energy Bill solved that problem by Guaranteeing TAXPAYER PAYBACK of any of the nuke loans that default (The Congressional Budget Office rated the risk of default at 50% or greater)

Obama voted FOR the Cheney Energy Bill. Clinton voted against. Clinton says her Energy plan does not include nuclear & if they want to be considered they will have to FIRST Make it Cheaper and find a safe way to dispose of the nuke waste.

McCain, this week on the Campaign trail said...we just have to face it we need to start building new, "CLEAN", nuclear power plants. i.e. The Corporate Elitists are running OBAMA AND McCain for President.
("Getting off coal to go to nuclear is like giving up cigarettes to take up smoking crack".)

Crazy much?

Zzzzzz.... ZZZZ! Zzzz...

OK, any proof that they own obama? Most of what you say is true except the part about them owning BHO? I believe nuclear can be part of the solution. I believe he could possibly be influenced by a lobby, but I also believe that as a co2 emissions reducer that BHO believes it is necessary.
Where is your proof, all the other connections and coincidences and documents and stories about how GE owns BHO?

This POST makes JUST as much SENSE! if you ONLY read THE capitalized...WORDS.

Crazyamazacrazy.

But it's seemed that it's not the campaign reporters who have made such a big deal out of this episode. Bittergate appears to exist almost exclusively in the minds of the DC-based punditry. Since there was no compelling video, it was up to the talkers on TV and radio to keep this one alive. Hillary and McCain did their best to help, but unlike Rev. Wright, this one never really caught on. Could it be that American just doesn't buy a bunch of millionaires calling someone else elitist? Or the fact none of these people know bupkus about small towns? I could be very wrong, but I think we'll be able to look back on this week as providing compelling evidence of just how much the game has changed in politics since 2004. It could be that Obama is just made of teflon. But I suspect Americans have caught on to the fact the media elite are out-of-touch blowhards.

Wonder if this "gaffe" by Hillary will have any effect:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/16/hillary-clinton-on-workin_n_97017.html

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Also, instead of assuming that the gaffe matters, why not call a few people who might be knowledgeable (like, say blue collar workers) and see what they're reaction is? That's what gets to me: the assumption that so many of these people make that they just know it's going to be received negatively. I have seen some journalists who have tried to go out and speak to people, but not many pundits.

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Doing man-on-the-street interviews carries its own risks. For one thing, any small sample is likely to produce unrepresentative results. Plus, there's the temptation to use the most outrageous quote, or the one that best encapsulates the views you expect to find. There're also the risks of selection bias, of response bias, and of rigging the sample to ensure that all views are represented. And even asking the question can distort the results, by focusing voters' attention on an issue they might not otherwise have singled out. Consider, if you will, Rasmussen's classic of the genre:

Senators Clinton and McCain said Obama’s comments showed he was out of touch with hardworking Americans. Do Obama’s comments reflect an elitist view of small-town America?


There are a variety of ways to gauge public sentiment, and blending them together helps to offset their individual drawbacks. But probably the safest approach is simply to abandon the effort to gauge public sentiment on each and every narrow issue. Occasionally, reporters may sense from their interactions with the public, from polling data, or from other sources that a particular issue has proven to be uncommonly resonant. On those occasions, trying to convey that to their readers or viewers is important. But it's my sense that the media has lately come to cover every incident and issue in the same fashion. The imperative to always gauge the impact has driven journalists to offer quotes, anecdotes, or data that purport to do that even when they don't. And that's lamentable.

Elme, you're not working for Lyndon LaRouche, are you?

LaRouche points.

FlyOnTneWall - Great post and congrats on making the TPM front page with the Marshall seal of approval!

Unless of course it is Senator Clinton. Then it goes directly to the front page and have a bevy of bloggers with the vapors.

hah.

Thanks for the post.

G. Terry Madonna, The Oracle of Lancaster meet FlyOnTneWall, Oracle of the Longue Durée.

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Unlike most pundits, I grew up firmly working class (if not outright poor - I ate an awful lot of government cheese). Most of my family is still blue-collar. My question: since when do working-class people consider it bad to be angry, bitter, and pissed-off? Among the well-off, anger is considered bad form. But where I come from, being angry just shows that you're paying attention. I think the chatterers and the professional politicians, with zero experience of working-class life, have seriously misjudged this one. I said from the beginning that this wouldn't hurt Obama in the least, and it sure looks like I was right.

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Also, I have to think there's some wish-fulfillment going on, too. The last thing Howard Wolfson, Hillary Clinton, and Karl Rove want is a working class that's pissed off and proud of it.

This is a clever analysis, McFly, a bit too clever. In fact, much too clever. Where did you go, Harvard, you elite snob? The good people of PA are indeed very angry with Barack H. Obama. (Not bitter, mind you.) But we're clever too. You think that we tell those elitist pollsters what we really think? LOLOLOLOL!!!! We're just blowing smoke up their bungholes. Just wait 'til Tuesday. We're going to come out of the hills like the armies of God and kick some "statistically significant" Obama butt.

Spot-on parody. Good work.

blah blah blah
red phone
blah blah blah
3 AM
blah blah blah
shot and a beer
blah blah blah
unpatriotic
blah blah blah
elitist
blah blah blah
bitter
blah blah blah
huntin ducks

I have a suggestion for reporters. The next time a controversy breaks, take a deep breath. Write it up, by all means, and put it on page A-3. And then give it a few days. If it's having an impact on voters, if it's altering the behavior of candidates on the stump, that'll become clear soon enough. When it does, you can run the sort of thoughtful, engaging piece of journalism that takes several days to prepare. And if it doesn't? Then you can focus on more significant stories. Either way, your coverage will improve. Isn't it at least worth a try?

Excellent! Thank you for writing this. I wish reporters would take it to heart.

And bloggers

Great recommendations. Unfortunately, such reasonable restraint will never happen, at least with the big, commercial news networks.

Such controversies are products that are carefully packaged to be sold. Each little event, regardless how inane, gets immediately branded with a titillating catchphrase -- throw in a few of dramatic sound bites and an out-of-proportion level of hype -- and it's InstaControversy!

It's really no different from the music business. They just keep throwing out whatever junk they can get hoping for the one occasional hit that will sell big for them.

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One more important thing is that the whole context of the "outrage" was rightwing in tone.

I'm a liberal and I wouldn't mind if a Democratic politician criticized the wedge issues of gods, guns, gays, abortion. In fact, I think the GOP is wrong on all of those issues.

Why does the MSM automatically decide that the GOP positions are untouchable and that the working class voters are all in agreement with the Right?

FYI, PA voted against Bush twice. So it's not that conservative. Why the kneejerk assumption by Washington and New York media/news people that "oh, those redneck blue collar voters are gonna be angry about this one -- he said "guns"!!!" "Oh no, San Fran?? The horror!!" "Criticize xenophobia??? How dare he!"

The media narrative on this has been from a purely rightwing perspective. I find the assumptions here shockingly partisan.

But it's seemed that it's not the campaign reporters who have made such a big deal out of this episode. Bittergate appears to exist almost exclusively in the minds of the DC-based punditry.

That's what makes this so delicious, and with a little time and perspective, I think it will dawn on a lot of people just who it was accusing Obama of being elitist - Kristol? Are you fucking kidding me? That's very definition of irony.

In a few weeks, this is going to look like one of the funniest things that happened in this campaign - all the outraged "men of the people" - furious over the elitism of someone who never had the kind of east coast upper class lives they themselves have always had. It's deliciously funny on that level.

It's a bunch of people standing around at a cocktail party in the Hamptons getting outraged at Obama daring to speak to the problems of small town America.

I take umbrage with your characterization of the venerable Mr. Kristol! Umbrage! William Kristol is the very definition of the common man! Harrumph! Umbrage!

I really don't understand how Bill Kristol keeps from dying from sheer smugness.

It's rather like the way I felt that if there was a Jehovah up there, He surely would have struck down George Bush in the 4th debate when he said he thought he was a "good steward of the environment."


I wish Billy would ooze off into the wings soonest.

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Now that I know a little about Kristol (and his dad) the more I think he's one of the group that really needs to be locked up:

http://www.archive.org/details/ThePowerOfNightmares

(Y'all are going to get tired of seeing this link but it's stuff we all need to know!)

O yeah - he's a big chief neo-con.

I really hate his guts.

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Nice post. It's great to see something so thoughtful in a blogosphere (and MSM) drowning in transient controversy.

I wonder if this analysis could be checked retrospectively, maybe by comparing the extent, duration and timing of Google popularity (or any other metric you like for media attention) for a given gaffe, with the rise and fall of candidate poll rankings.

Was there a real wave hitting Obama post-Rev Wright? Over what time period? Was it tested for in any time more than a week or two after the race speech? Before-and-after the speech?

Did the Bosnia-fibs really have anything to do with the collapse in public opinion about HRC trustworthiness, as reported in, e.g., today's WaPo poll? Sheesh. Where did those negatives come from, anyhow?

The longue duree seems to say that BO's fandom is trending slowly but surely upward, while HRC's is flat (40%, say), or maybe slightly down. Both perhaps notwithstanding momentary blips like bittergate and WRC's mouth.

I like the longue duree analysis. Ambinder at The Atlantic seems to be going that way too.

Say wha'? Where does this stuff come from?

Inquiring minds want to know.

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Is there not a certain arrogance by the MSM to conclude that polls are driven by what they choose to report on and repeat over and over again?

Are they overestimating their own influence?

Great post on how much trouble our journalists have discerning cause from correlation. One thing I'm curious about though, wouldn't this be the more polls, the more likely one will support a given narrative?


If you wait long enough, you'll get a poll that tells you what you want to hear. In fact, there are rarely this many polls in the field during a campaign, and the fewer polls, the greater the chance that random variation will seem to support the narrative.


I assumed you're talking about the problem of linking a highly granular sample (the poll) to a trend too large to be driven by what's being measured. It would seem to me that fewer polls would smooth out less significant variations, but maybe I have it wrong.

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If you've got one poll, and it ticks marginally upward or downward, you've got a certifiable, reportable trend. If you have seven polls, and some are up while others are down, you have statistical noise.

But yes, the broader point is that many of the actual determinants of voters' decisions rarely register in opinion polling.

I'd like to know when it was that all "working class" and "blue collar" voters became white? That seems to be the working assumption for a lot of people in the media and it perplexes me.

Of course, this also stay a story because the candidates themselves are pushing it.

Clinton and McCain say one thing.

Obama comes back and says something else.

Clinton responds.

Etc.

Not saying the media shouldn't take a break, but it would help if the candidates stopped fanning the flames.

(actually, as an Obama supporter, I think "bittergate" actually helps him, as the more Hillary and McCain talk, the more out-of-touch and elitist they sound).

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Outstanding post as always, FlyOnTheWall, and also some interesting and thoughtful comments. I appreciate Josh's link, or I might've missed it.

You've all put into words something that's been bugging me, too, but I was a bit slower on the uptake. I think it was in Newsweek, or maybe Time, couple weeks ago--Joe Klein, maybe? or Jonathan Alter?--about how the media is not really biased against one candidate or another, or one gender or another, or one race or another--what they are biased toward and addicted to is CONTROVERSY. And if they're not gettin' any, so to speak, they will INVENT some.

From all I've read, and what I know from small-town living, the people most outraged by the remarks do not themselves live in small towns and are not themselves "working class."

Every time Hillary refers to her childhood lakehouse as a "cottage," I look at the photo shown with the remarks, and think, "Wow, it's got two stories and a nice big front porch. It's bigger than my 100-year old farmhouse. Some COTTAGE.")

Obama has a tendency to speak truth, get hammered over it, and then be proved right.

People in small towns tend to live there all their lives; often, they go to the same elementary school that their moms and dads went to. If they go to college, it's usually within a hundred-mile radius; they tend to come home every weekend, and they usually return home to raise their kids and teach or work in the local industries.

So when major factories or industries shut down for whatever reason, not only do hundreds lose their jobs, but the whole town starts to dry up. Businesses close, schools are consolidated and closed. And it's real easy to say, well, why don't they just move to where the jobs are? Because it's HOME and they don't want to, or are afraid to, leave. Or they do, and are utterly miserable in strange towns among strangers. Homesick and helpless.

This dying out of small towns and their populations is a terrible problem in rural areas where industry has dried up, and the devastation can be felt for generations.

There is absolutely nothing "elitist" about stating that simple truth, and anyone who thinks so has not had the experiences these people have had. It is very, very sad, and the repurcussions--divorce, alcoholism, family violence, are real.

The truth is that the only hope Hillary's campaign had was that Obama would make some sort of terrible mis-step that they could grind on and maybe cost him the election. They thought this was it. So did the punditocracy. Yay! A new controversy to exploit!

But I'd like to see one of those commentators try to support a family on ten bucks an hour, worrying that their kid's high school is going to close down, wondering if they ought to move to find a better job but knowing that they can't really afford to right now, watching their marriage disintegrate, feeling trapped and angry, and then go on-camera and see if they can mouth about "elitism," or even care what the hell the word means.

Great and well-communicated insights and point.

Many thanks.

Obama has a tendency to speak truth, get hammered over it, and then be proved right.

Yes - that's exactly what he's done every time.

You and SCMadden both are right about that.

I think that is what keeps getting through to people - or I hope so anyway. That hit me early on.

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If there is anybody outraged at this they weren't going to vote for Obama (or Clinton) anyway. Hell John McCain might be too liberal for them.

NRA members who really think Dems want to take their hunting rifles from their cold dead hands and religious whackos who think we must never use soon to be discarded fertility clinic embryos for scientific research and ought to recriminalize abortion are gonna hear these comments and say they don't care if he's right or wrong about how they came to hold their opinion on these issues, they'll never vote for him because his opinion on these issues differs from theirs.

These are the hardest of hardcore Repubs. If they don't go third party or stay home on election day because of "Juan" McCain's immigration policy or his pledge to continue the Iraq occupation or to continue destroying the dollar they'll make up a big part of the 35% of the vote he gets in Nov.

The media morons ought to know better. It's about as important as any Repub saying Dems are "defeatocrats" because we don't like the War in Iraq.

Let's conduct a brief thought-experiment:

Supposing you WERE feeling bitter & alienated by politics. Who do you listen to, 1) Hillary Clinton telling you're not, or 2) Barack Obama talking about why you're feeling bitter, and what will change things?

For most people, the answer depends on how you feel about Obama. If you think he's an outsider, or that he's merely pandering, your pride gets stung and you say "I most certainly am NOT!" ~ that's the crowd Hillary's playing for. Her problem is that everyone knows she's also pandering while she says it, so even if that's your reaction it doesn't make you any more likely to trust Hillary.

If, on the other hand, you think that Barack Obama comes from inside your tribe (however you define tribe) or that he's genuine, then you have a very different reaction: you think "Right on!"

What Obama has been proving over and over this primary season is that he's much better at being accepted as an insider than the bulk of the punditocracy will acknowlege. Yes, there are people for whom he'll never get the insider license to talk about painful subjects. That's clear. Are these enough to lose an election? Maybe not.

Obama's great strength is sincerity. He's genuine. When he says what he thinks, people can believe that he really thinks it and despite ideology, he's acting in good faith. So far, this is the ace that has enabled him to provoke more type 2) than 1) reactions.

Is there not a certain arrogance by the MSM to conclude that polls are driven by what they choose to report on and repeat over and over again?

Are they overestimating their own influence?

Where ya been, cuz? They have been at the center of all their stories for years now - the entire press is busy reporting on themselves most of the time - how they approached the subject, what they learned, what they think.

It's meta to the max-a

As yet.

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Hey, this is another B.S. brouhaha cooked up by the HClinton Campaign and magnified by the Media. Hillary has learned her lesson well from Rove, alas. She seizes on something that can be construed in a thousand different ways, and frames it, turns it into a "condescending" comment by Barack. This, unfortunately, has begun turning me off Hillary, when I felt positive about her before. It is also the game the Media plays because they have nothing of substance to write about, and they love to see feuds and infighting among all the candidates because it generates reams of copy for which they get paid and then they can consider it all a horse race and speculate about winners and losers. A game is all it is. The pot (Hillary) is calling the Kettle (Obama) black (no sarcasm implied although it may be misconstrued as such [chuckle]). And all of you join in the game of wagging about it, magnifying it, minimizing the importance of the real issues and whether they are being addressed. Hillary is elitist, Obama is elitist, McCain is elitist, FDR was a patrician elitist, but good ole George Bush successfully pretended he wasn't rich, didn't go to an Ivy League school, was a Texan, and was just a simple working frat buddy, and see how much of a populist he is. What a load of crap! Write, please, about important things.

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Oh you dreamer, Flyonthewall!

The media not jump right away?

The Media actually listen to people whether they think something is important rather than pontificating?

You are a dreamer!

Of all the gaffes and scandels of the 2008 primary, I think the Bosnia sniper story will go down as the most memorable and the one that "stuck" wth voters.

From the Washington Post today:

Clinton is viewed as "honest and trustworthy" by just 39 percent of Americans, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, compared with 52 percent in May 2006. Nearly six in 10 said in the new poll that she is not honest and trustworthy. And now, compared with Obama, Clinton has a deep trust deficit among Democrats, trailing him by 23 points as the more honest, an area on which she once led both Obama and John Edwards. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/15/AR2008041502883.html

You can see this phenomenon in its purity by watching John Madden call a football game. John Smith makes a tackle.


Madden: "John Smith is a guy who just loves the game. I was talking with him yesterday, and he said 'John, I just want to play hard.' And that's what he does, play hard, doesn't take plays off."


Next play, John Smith blows a coverage, and Dave Johnson gains 15 yards.


Madden: "Dave Johnson is a guy who can just flat out make plays. He just out hustles his opponent-- he just wanted it more."


And after every. single. play. the cause of its success is ascribed to the personal narrative of whichever player was involved. Which is ridiculous, as you say, because the game is made up of many plays, there is strategy involved, etc.


Now, the point you are making: the Madden phenomenon is due to the demands of media as a business. I would like to make a subtle, but I think important, disagreement: the Madden phenomenon is due to the demands of media as an unregulated business. And we know that "unregulated" is a euphemism for "lawless." And we know that "lawless" is a synonym for "corrupt." You cannot hope to reform the media, shame the journalists, or disprove their methods when, in the end, it is a lawless institution governed only by money.

Just to quickly complete the analogy, in case it is unclear. If, say, NFL coverage were somehow regulated-- strictly regulated by some sort of governing body. Then, there would be laws against former players and coaches becoming broadcasters, or at least safeguards put in place. It makes sense because there is a clear conflict of interest: former players and coaches have interests in protecting their reputation, their legacy, other players, other organizations, etc. There would be requirements before rising to a certain level of influence: education, years of service, etc. There would be guidelines for good and ethical coverage, best practices, etc. So now, in case it was unclear, it is easy to make the analogy to our unregulated (and, by definition, corrupt) press.

I don't know if anyone else saw what I saw tonight. As Josh said, Obama was not at the top of his form. He seemed a little overwhelmed and uncomfortable at times, though he never folded under the pressure. Perhaps exasperated would be a better word, tired of the same old nonsense repeated once again, as if that was REALLY what the voters were asking about.

On the other hand, to me, Hillary seemed relieved and even upbeat, in a subdued way. She was very smooth, and extremely honest, and I think I know why. I think in her mind, she has accepted it is over. Although not ready to make a public announcement ahead of the PA primary, I think she is preparing the foundation now.

I believe we are already seeing the backlash from this ABC hack job, and frankly it did nothing but create sympathy for Obama. It's like continuing to punch someone after the bell. The studio audience was in rebellion by the end of the telecast - they knew what was happening.

There is a good chance that this will swing votes in Obama's direction, which will make it even easier on Hillary. She said Obama CAN win against McCain - she said it three times for emphasis. She said she is ready to heal the rift in the party. She said she will do anything she can to help put a democrat in the White House.

She is no longer burning bridges. If she somehow receives the gift of an overwhelming win in PA, I think she will continue. But if she gets a marginal victory it will end here. She has already prepared the way for concession.

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