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Rendell v Casey - What influence will they have?
This is my first blog ever...... just thought I'd share that.
I have been trying to figure out the influence Ed Rendell and Bob Casey will have on the Pennsylvania Primary.
I was speaking with my in-laws who live in Rural Valley, PA. They are Obama supporters and have never favored Rendell. They don't feel he deserved the democratic nomination for governor.
If we rewind to 2002 when Rendell and Casey were competing for the Democratic Nomination for Governor, Rendell won the nomination by winning only 10 out of 67 counties: Philadelphia and its suburbs: Bucks, Chester, Lancaster Montgomery and Delaware, its Lehigh Valley exurbs: Berks, Lehigh and Northampton, and Centre County, the home of Penn State University.
So we have Ed Rendell (Hillary Supporter) winning 10 counties. Philly and it's suburbs.
Philly just had the largest Obama ralley ever attracting 35,000 people. Philly population is very diverse and Centre County, home of Penn State, has a large "young voter" population, which Obama has been successful with both.
Then we have Bob Casey (Obama Supporter) who won 57 counties and lost the nomination for Governor.
He later went on to win the Senate Primary with 85% of the vote and 59% in the GE, which was the highest margin of victory ever for a Democrat running for the United States Senate in Pennsylvania.
With him on the campaign trail with Obama, trekking through the back hills of PA on board a train, I feel his influence will be pretty significant.. We also can't forget the "Casey Democrats", but that might be a stretch.
Guess who was born and raised in Scranton? Yep...Bob Casey along with his 7 siblings. His father was the 44th Governor of PA. The Casey's roots run deep.
I'm just gonna throw it out there....I think Obama will win Pennsylvania! Yep, I said it. Now I will cringe at the thought of the comments I will receive. lol
Seriously though, am I way off or does it make sense?
I have been trying to figure out the influence Ed Rendell and Bob Casey will have on the Pennsylvania Primary.
I was speaking with my in-laws who live in Rural Valley, PA. They are Obama supporters and have never favored Rendell. They don't feel he deserved the democratic nomination for governor.
If we rewind to 2002 when Rendell and Casey were competing for the Democratic Nomination for Governor, Rendell won the nomination by winning only 10 out of 67 counties: Philadelphia and its suburbs: Bucks, Chester, Lancaster Montgomery and Delaware, its Lehigh Valley exurbs: Berks, Lehigh and Northampton, and Centre County, the home of Penn State University.
So we have Ed Rendell (Hillary Supporter) winning 10 counties. Philly and it's suburbs.
Philly just had the largest Obama ralley ever attracting 35,000 people. Philly population is very diverse and Centre County, home of Penn State, has a large "young voter" population, which Obama has been successful with both.
Then we have Bob Casey (Obama Supporter) who won 57 counties and lost the nomination for Governor.
He later went on to win the Senate Primary with 85% of the vote and 59% in the GE, which was the highest margin of victory ever for a Democrat running for the United States Senate in Pennsylvania.
With him on the campaign trail with Obama, trekking through the back hills of PA on board a train, I feel his influence will be pretty significant.. We also can't forget the "Casey Democrats", but that might be a stretch.
Guess who was born and raised in Scranton? Yep...Bob Casey along with his 7 siblings. His father was the 44th Governor of PA. The Casey's roots run deep.
I'm just gonna throw it out there....I think Obama will win Pennsylvania! Yep, I said it. Now I will cringe at the thought of the comments I will receive. lol
Seriously though, am I way off or does it make sense?
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Comments (11)
And maybe someone can tell me why my quotes didn't get on the brown part! Sorry y'all!...I'll learn.
April 21, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well Candice,
We will find out tomorrow if Senator Casey has coattails. If he can give a significant boost in his strongholds, that should really help Senator Obama in the November election. I expect that Senator Obama will run stronger than Hillary in Rendell's home turf, despite the fact that the Mayor of Philadelphia is backing Hillary also.
April 21, 2008 4:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good first blog and I think that given the information that you provided I'd have to go with Casey! I don't know that any endorsements really matter a lot but they matter a bit and it sounds like Casey might resonate in the areas of the state that Obama needs most and Rendell's strong influence in Philly might not have much impact given Obama's good numbers there.
Should be interesting to say the least!
John
April 21, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Smerconish said the same thing last Friday. You are not alone.
April 21, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
W00T!!! Teh suburbs!! XD Okay, on with my point. 1) While that strategy worked in a governor's race, I feel it's unlikely to in a presidential race, especially one with such high turnout. Rendell is popular and well-known. His influence is probably pretty good among undecideds. Casey would have more influence if he wasn't so new. Sorry, but no matter how I look at this, I can't see Obama winning. I'm counting on a single-digit victory.
April 21, 2008 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I'm not really sure how much either matters, but I know not as many people like Rendell as the press makes out. Casey's father was very well-liked.
Rendell's not always the best spokesperson. He has that pesky habit of blurting out what he actually thinks, which don't always match up with whatever current talking points are.
April 21, 2008 5:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in the Philly suburbs. Rendell gets a lot of national attention, but he's most known in PA for pandering to sports fans. Ed did a good job as Mayor of Philadelphia, but he's lost his luster as Governor of Pennsylvania. Considering his history with the Clintons I don't think his endorsement was much of a suprise.
Casey carries on his father's tradition, but for me he will always be famous for finally ridding us of Santorum. His endorsement of Obama was a suprise to many and might have therefore had a bit more impact on people. If it were early in the campaign it might not have meant much. But, with Obama's success throughout and most PA papers endorsing him I think more people who might have gone on name are looking at the two more closely. I don't think the bitter comments will have much impact.
Look forward to your next post...
April 21, 2008 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Really? Which county? I'm in Chester.
April 21, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Grew up in Montgomery, living in Berks.
April 21, 2008 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I have a friend from there! ^o^ That one's a little more hospitable to Dems.
April 21, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
When it comes to low-information voters (those most likely to be influenced by endorsements), is that a good thing or a bad thing?
April 21, 2008 10:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
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