Hillary is a strong candidate. Pennsylvania is not a Democratic stronghold, nor a Republican stronghold.

Well, most of us think he has already made it look silly for her to stay in. He has not, of course, hit that "magic number" yet, even including unpledged delegates. Look for that to happen in June.

So, why hasn't he? I suppose it's because she's won almost as many delegates as he has. By this metric, she's done arguably almost as good a job as he has at campaigning. When you have two strong candidates in a race, I don't think it says anything about the winning candidate that he's not winning even more than he already is.

Conversely, "is it too much to expect that [she] would have dispatched of [Obama] by now or at least made it look silly for [him] stay in?" Surely, it's better to be the front-runner in a close race than to come in second, right?

I know some people (superdelegates, especially) are concerned that Obama lacks the power to deliver a knock-out punch, but I'm not worried at all. In fact, I'm absolutely certain he will have more than enough fighter in him to go toe to toe in the general.

But this is a contest for the Democratic nomination, and he's got to be concerned that after all this, we will need to be able to get over our hurt feelings and unite for the real fight. I'm sure he's also thinking he needs to be careful not to get too ugly with Hillary, which would inevitably end up giving her more sympathy votes (especially among women). He also can't risk driving up his negatives and alienating blue collar Dems and independents who might hold it against him now and in November.

I have no doubt that when the time comes, he'll have more than enough fight in him for John McCain. I'm sure he'll be much less restrained when it comes to holding John McCain and the Republicans accountable for what they've done.

I think it's inertia. Hillary was just very, very firmly established as a leading candidate in 2008, years and years in advance. (Remember "Die Hard 3", where Bruce Willis says that Hillary Clinton is the 43rd president? I came out in 1995, and even then everybody already knew that she will eventually run. Most people guessed 2004 or 2008.)

So it's very hard for Obama to undo the years and years of those expectations in the span of just a couple of months. I mean now, she's down, and we've all used to that, but I think it would be quite a shock if she actually dropped out.

In short, there is a qualitative difference between being barely alive and stone cold dead, and for all the Hillary-hating, many people are just reluctant to see her campaign dead.

For the same reason Arnold Schwarzenegar was able to become governor by calling himself the governator and quoting lines from his films. When offered a scenario so farsical, we collectively shift our perceptions to make the most unlikely outcome possible. For the same reason people stop to look at a deadly car accident. People don't just want to see Hillary's demise in the dignified predictable way that you would see a candidate like John Edwards or Bill Richardson exit the race. They want to see as much blood, guts, drama and humiliation as possible. On the other side of the coin, the serial killer instinct in people want to see ahero struggle and fall, Obama as oddyseus. Whenever he seems like he's on his way back to Ithaca, the gods throw the kitchen sink at him. For the same reason George Bush decided to wear a flight suit and hop out of a harrier jet. He liked a movie as ridiculous as independence day as much as the rest of us. Because we're assholes. And as assholes, we collectively desire and make this freak show possible.

To begin, Obama can't seal the deal because of the proportional allocation of delegates. It makes it impossible for Hillary to catch up. It also makes it impossible for Obama to seal the deal.

Well, you say, "Why don't the superdelegates just back him if he's won?" In a word, fear. Example number one: Bill Richardson.

Some superdelegates are careerists - they want to go with the winner when they're absolutely sure who that is. But they can't be absolutely sure because of the proportional allocation and Hillary keeps insisting she's in it until the convention, hinting she has a sure-fire way to destroy Obama. Many superdelegates are terrified of retribution if they go with Obama and then Hillary does get hold of the nomination. The Clintons made an example of Bill Richardson. So superdelegates are afraid Hillary's Rovian maneuvers will succeed, and then there will be hell to pay. Because that's how Hillary is.

Some of the conscientious superdelegates are trying to play this in a way that leaves a functioning Democratic Party in being. If the superdelegates did go with Obama now and "seal the deal," Hillary and her followers would scream bloody murder and walk away in November. The superdelegates aren't jumping because they want to preserve a hope of uniting the party and winning this formerly sure-thing election.

Hillary has already been screaming bloody murder. She's said Obama wants to deprive Democrats of the opportunity to vote. "He should have let the people vote. He should have seated my legitimately elected Michigan delegates." She's fomenting division as hard as she can. He's trying to prevent division.

So Obama is damned if the superdelegates back him now and he seals the deal because of how Hillary will behave. And he's damned if he doesn't seal the deal because Hillary and her followers say he can't seal the deal.

The only solution is for Hillary, who has lost, to withdraw gracefully. She's the only person in the party who can seal the deal for the sake of getting a Democrat in the White House without dividing the party worse than at any time since the Dixiecrats. Howard Dean can't do it. Al Gore can't. Ted Kennedy can't. Hillary flatly refuses.

Hence the problem.

Thanks for the responses. I actually wanted to hear what everyone thought. Honest.

Why can't Barack seal the deal on this thing?

The answers are pretty obvious.

The structure of the primaries. Superdelegates comprise about one fifth of the delegates. In a contested primary, in order for a candidate to win without superdelegates, that candidate has to secure about five eighths (62.5%) of the elected delegates (or equivalently a majority of four fifths). Ignore for the moment those strange superdelegates selected after the primary. Anyway,with the proportional system the party uses, with 75% of the delegates coming from local districts by rule, getting that many elected delegates is practically impossible in a contested primary.

The structure of the current campaign. To further confound the issue, the apparent front runner received many superdelegate pledges before the race really started. When that front runner (Clinton) turned out not be the front runner after Iowa, that made the job of the more popular candidate just that much more difficult. The front runner in the primaries was not the front runner in delegate counts because of the early move by over one hundred superdelegates.

The psychology of being denied what's rightfully yours. In most election years, superdelegates don't matter. One candidate establishes his or her lead and the steamroller or momentum effect takes place. Other candidates bow out after a few primaries (as happened this year with all the candidates but one) and the nominee is decided before the superdelegates have to act. That didn't happen with Clinton because she did not act the way the other candidates did, she acted as if the nomination were hers, and she was given a pass because she had lots of superdelegates, hence delegates, hence credibility.

Negative campaigning works with suspicious voters. Despite losing eleven primaries (actually twelve with Vermont), Clinton looked to states whose voters were suspicious of a candidate like Obama. Race was certainly one factor, as Rendell noted. Religion was a second. Patriotism was a third. Insecurity was a fourth. Negative doubts with suspicious voters allowed Clinton to pick up popular vote wins in Ohio, texas, Rhode Island, and probably Pennsylvania. This feeds the previous factor.

A united party. Obama is bending over backwards to avoid antagonizing Clinton supporters, whereas Clinton is not acting in similar fashion. Occasionally Obama makes a mistake due to his unconscious and early-formed biases. We all have those and they affect us unconsciously so that we act in racist, sexist, ageist fashions without meaning to. So "Hillary, you're likable enough," periodic crankiness, baking cookies, etc. are the kinds of mistakes I'm talking about. But on the whole, he wants Clinton voters in the general election.

These factors are obvious. There may be other factors to answer "Why can't Barack seal the deal on this thing?"

Hillary has been one of the Top 10 most famous people on the planet since 1992. You can't just dispatch someone like that. So I'd say Barack is doing pretty damn good so far accomplishing the unimaginable.

Obama cannot seal the deal because he is not The Chosen One despite Oprah and Farrakhan's suggestion otherwise. Instead, he is increasingly be exposed as a boorish politician that whines and acts like a 6-year old when faced with questions about his words, actions, and associations. Well, maybe a bit older than a 6-year old as most youngsters wouldn't resort to flipping off someone. Boorish loser is what Obama is.

Matthew
http://www.TheProblemWithObama.com

At least no one said if "it was eating at me" to just shutup and let it eat the rest of me. :)

This is indeed a trolling question.

Here is the simple truth.

THE SUPERDELEGATES DON'T HAVE THE POLITICAL POWER TO SELECT HILLARY CLINTON IF BARACK OBAMA HAS ONE MORE PLEDGED DELEGATE.

If the superdelegates flip the delegate count away from Obama to give someone else the nomination they will divorce African-Americans from the Democratic party and give Republicans a 60% majority for 25 or 30 years.

It is really that simple.

Obama has already won nomination. Hillary failed to break Obama on February 5. Obama succeeded in breaking Hillary during his 11 contest winning streak in the February contests after Feb. 5. The so-called Obama "road win" that everybody has been looking for was Wisconsin.

Now in order to take the delegate lead from Obama Hillary has to win every state by about 64%-36%. In a few days, her 15 to 20 point win in Pennsylvania will make it HARDER FOR HER TO WIN. Yes, you read that right, 20 point victories make it harder for her to win.