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PRESIDENCY IS BARACK'S TO LOSE
I am one of Obama's biggest supporters...not just because I really like him, but also because I believe in his messages and his politics. Sometimes, when the Clinton's or the press' negativity becomes too much, I simply turn to another channel.
That said, I sincerely believe that the primary and, indeed, the general election in November is Obama's to lose. Why do I say that? We live in a wired world and also an oppinionated one too...very few people are on the fence...notably, a fraction of democratic white working men in the primaries and a large fraction of the white female voters in the general election (I know that some of you will disagree with me).
Once the primaries are over, I believe the democrats will come together and Obama will get almost 90% of Clinton's supporters (they form the base of the democratic party and I don't see them voting any other way, except those that simply won't vote for him based on his race).
In the general election, I think there will be a large fraction of white female voters who are still undecided between Obama and McCain. I believe that Obama's victory lies in him convincing them to vote for him.
At this point, a lot of things break Obama's way except for when his patriotism is question and that can be a pretty effective strategy as seen in 2004.
This is why I said the races are Obama's to lose as shown during the debate on Wednesday.
If you decide over 6 months ago not to wear a flag lapel pin (as inconsequencial as that seem), you should have come up with a pretty good reason as to why you refuse to wear one. This is politics...you know it's going to come up again, brainstorm and come up with a good reason. If you can't, then wear one. I saw his rambling response and I was mad as hell because I expected him to have come up with a better answer in the 6 months.
Other questions that came up on Wednesday (and they will surely come up again) are Rev Wright and his bitter comments.
As a 200% Obama supporter, I will advise him to come up with excellent responses because if he gives the mangled responses he gave on Wednesday, a lot of the white female supporters will flock to McCain. Right now, I believe, they are just looking for an excuse.
A lot of McCabes (who simply despises Obama, according to McClatchy, because of "his meteoric rise") will surface in the next few months. It will be a shame for Obama to lose an election because he does not have good answers to questions we all know will recycle itself.
Comments (9)
these 'responses' you think obama should be spending all his time preparing are nothing but the political hoop-jumping and distraction-oriented gotcha games which Obama calls the politics of the past.
rather than defensively explaining this or that rationale for the latest vapid, inane, petty personality smear emanating from the bowels of the republican machine, which allows the republicans to frame him effectively according to the plane of political discourse on which they have an advantage, obama should continually and forcefully redirect focus on all the other political planes, the ones on which the republicans have shown themselves to be bottomlessly corrupt and incompetent.
this aggressive strategy strikes to the heart of republican efforts to frame obama as a weak, effeminate, defensive elitist loser who has to spend all his time responding to their petty attacks. by forcefully and aggressively highlighting the republican failure to effectively approach any of the issues which actually matter to Americans, obama puts the lie to the claim that he is weak and ineffectual. if he devotes himself to slavishly rationalising his way out of the artificial 'controversies' the republicans concoct (if he wore a flag lapel religiously over the past 6 months, do you think the $250 billion republican smear campaign would just pack up their bags and go home? they'll find something else, its their job) he will prove the Republicans right.
obama has the fire, he has the eloquence, he has the breadth of knowledge and intellect, he has the strategy. he's gonna take this one all the way.
April 18, 2008 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well said.
I agree. I have been a supporter since the 2004 DNC and Obama does need to become far more articulate on the flag and Wright responses.
I know he does not like giving canned answers but Wright demands such.
I also want him to just wear the friggin flag pin.
End of story.
He has the perfect reason given that a vet gave him one to wear the other day...he needs to just keep it on!
April 18, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
why don't we have him dress him up as Uncle Sam.
surely to make any less of a conspicuous display would speak poorly of his patriotic impulses.
...must patriotism be worn on one's sleeve? would a flag pin lapel improve george w bush's patriotic standing at all?
April 18, 2008 11:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Another earnest Obama hit job masquerading as bold truth-telling and concern!
Exactly how many morons can dance on the the head of a flag pin?
April 18, 2008 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey downunderland, I understand your point. But remember, quite a number of americans are fickle minded...that's why you have these kind of games in politics. It works most times...and as long as it does, people will keep trying. I believe these are just hypocrites and desperate people trying to cling to power, but, like it or not, a lot will be made of his responses to these questions in the coming months.
April 19, 2008 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
dayo, i think we are in agreement that these vapid, issue-free personality smears have played an all-too significant role in recent presidential elections, and that the chief obstacle a democratic nominee faces in reaching the white house is having to deal with this inevitable line of attack.
kerry and gore pretty much tried ignoring it, and the chattering TV heads whipped it up into a firestorm, a death of a thousand smears as i saw their fates described.
stop me if im wrong, but you believe that the best bet for our presumptive nominee in dealing with the character smears the republicans will base their campaign on is to make a list of everything that could conceivably be distorted, manipulated or otherwise used as a brush with which to tar our guy. then step two, assemble denunciations and explanations ahead of time for every point on the list. then step three, continue to update the list as near instantaneously as you can to encompass every last soundbite or ad-libbed fundraiser moment that could conceivably be added to the list. then step four, hope and pray that the media will provide our candidate with a platform on which he can effectively convey his prepared remarks.
gee, that seems like a whole lot of work, doesn't it? and then where is obama left? at the middle of a web of character smears which he has validated on the level of engaging with them. that is a defensive position, and a position from which obama will have necessarily ceded the narrative of the campaign to the republicans: is this guy american/patriotic/christian/tough/this/that enough for this Serious Job? or should we put Mr John Serious McCain in there?
not a strong position.
far better for obama to adopt the offensive position, to seize the narrative and wage war upon the entire conceptual framework within which the smears against him emanate. to declare same to be the 'politics of the past', an irrelevance to be swatted off his shoulders as he leads America where it wants to go.
far better to attack the republicans where they are weakest, on the issuse; and to refuse to engage them where they are strongest, in the realm of petty personality politics, where you are damned if you do and damned if you don't.
ever read the Art of War? or any of bruce lee's philosophy of martial arts?
April 19, 2008 1:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why would a guy not wear a lapel pin with the flag on it? Well during the last eight years America's most prominent pin wearer has stood for a foreign policy that rejected any notion of cooperation with allies or former allies. I think it's fair to say that the lapel pin wearing crowd has changed the meaning of this little accessory. When they put it on, it stopped representing an uncomplicated love of America and it's ideals, and morphed into a symbol of American un-restrained power and unilateralism. If I were a guy who wanted to represent change, I might keep the pin in the drawer, as a subtle way to suggest that my approach to foreign relations will be different. My approach will seek opportunities for us to cooperate with our allies, negotiate respectfully with our enemies and seek to make progress through good faith diplomacy. In other words, I don't wear a lapel pin because George Bush does and I want to look different from him. I want America to seem less arrogant and snarling and more reasonable and practical to allies and enemies alike and sometimes if you want people to believe you are different, you have to look different.
Change, after all, requires not doing what has been done in the past.
April 19, 2008 12:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
In order for Obama's supporters to successfully transform Clinton's supporters, we need to understand what makes them uncomfortable with Obama. I don't think flag pins and Wright are the real problem. I think it has more to do with feeling he's not experienced enough.
I don't share those concerns. I am more concerned that my leader is capable of make good decisions based on the facts at hand, not that s/he has an answer today for problems that will arise next week.
My real point is, after the primary is over, we need to spend a lot of time trying to understand the other side and then providing the information to overcome their objections. Because the republican attacks will be brutal and ugly and we will need all the rational, honest people we can get to win, even if they voted for Hillary.
April 19, 2008 1:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I dont think we have to transform Clinton's supporters. Most of them know that Obama's policies and Clinton's are quite similar. Obama's policies are tweaked in a way that will, at least, get republicans to consider passing them. Take health care for example, Edwards and Clinton can beat Obama about his proposal, but the republicans WILL never pass the Clinton/Edward plan. They will consider Obama's. The republicans passed something similar in massachusetts. Besides, he is more believeable, trustworthy and honest than Clinton will ever be.
That said, three questions will recycle between now and november - Ayers, bitter and Rev Wright. I don't expect him to research thousands of likely attack points, but he should be able to answer these three convincingly and believeably.
April 19, 2008 1:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
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