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Polls show Hillary losing everywhere but Kentucky
So here's the thing. Hillary needs to win all states by, what, 75 or 80%? How's she doing? I know everyone wants to cite this poll, they're tied, this poll, she's ahead by 2, he's ahead by eight.
Whatever. When you can show me the polls that put her ahead of Obama with 75% of the vote in NC or Indiana, then we're talking.
Right now, all she's proving that she was always the better positioned to run for President, the most well-known and therefore, the clear favorite. And that this is why Obama was once the underdog by twenty-five points nationally. A perfect storm--her horrible campaign (Penn and co.) and Obama's brilliant 50 state strategy--lead us to this point. Unfortunately, you can't redo February and that's all the difference.
Obama is 288 delegates from the nomination. All the polls in America can't change that.
But the voters can. And if they can overturn the will of the pledged delegates in place by voting in devastating numbers for Hillary, then she'll be the nominee.
Until then, the only poll that matters to me is people I know who support Obama, and that's at about 80% easy.
I'm working on the other twenty.













Comments (17)
You left something out of the title!
'Polls [in my head] show Hillary losing everywhere but Kentucky'.
There we go! Much more accurate.
April 29, 2008 5:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wooosh.
April 29, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm...latest Indiana polls show Clinton up 8 and 9 points.
Latest Kentucky polls show Clinton up 30+ points.
Latest North Carolina poll shows Clinton down to single digits (down by 5 pts in the very latest).
So ya, you're totally right. Clinton has no chance. I'm sure if she wins IN, comes close to getting NC, then wins KY and WV, the supers will all flock to Obama.
April 29, 2008 5:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wooosh.
April 29, 2008 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not to mention her gargantuan lead in WV... and her 13 point lead in the only PR poll, despite conventional wisdom saying it's as much as 20%...
Or the fact that she is gaining in Oregon.
April 29, 2008 5:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'd say she should just give up now. Since she's within 5 pts of the only remaining state custom-made for Obama, she obviously has lost the support of the people.
April 29, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wooosh.
April 29, 2008 5:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
I second all the wooshes in this comment section. Looks like some people just didn't get it.
Think about it.
April 29, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
wow, like flies to....
April 29, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm collecting Hillary supporters. All I need is four more for the complete TPM set.
April 29, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
LOL!!!!!!!!!!
that's frackin brilliant, that is.
April 29, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're rare. Very valuable. But my owner no longer has my box.
April 29, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Senator Clinton needs 71% of pledged delegates to win the pledged.
Numbers:
3,253 pledged delegates total, so 1,627 is a majority. 409 have not yet been awarded.
1,334 are now pledged to her.
1,627 -1,334 = 265 needed.
265 needed /409 available = 71%.
April 29, 2008 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Duly noted. I was over by four to nine percentage points in my estimate.
And hey, she's already there in Kentucky and maybe WV.
All she's gotta do now is get that NC number up about twenty five points and the Indians number up about twenty and she's got this thing.
April 29, 2008 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me explain: Your argument rests on the assumption that the math will remain as it has. If Obama continues to suffer under criticism and then goes on to lose the majority of the remaining contests, he is going to have problems. Whether the "people" (and by people I mean the distorted delegate system used by the DNC) will it or not, the superdelegates are not going to nominate someone that they feel will lose in November.
One other point that has not been noted enough: If Clinton does gain momentum and Obama has problems, and if this does go to the convention, it is very possible that a nominee will not be determined on the first ballot. Then what happens? Free for all, and Clinton has a real shot.
April 29, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
A few things to consider:
1. Do you seriously expect Hillary to win all remaining contests by an average of 71%? Given that even with the favorable demographics in PA she couldn't even crack 55%?
Seriously?
2. If Clinton wins the nomination even though Obama got a majority of pledged delegates, how will she go about she persuade the AA voters to come out for her on election day?
3. Is it possible for a Democrat to win without the AA vote?
4. Will Clinton's negatives have an effect with respect to independents and disillusioned GOP crossing over?
April 29, 2008 7:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
she go about she persuade = she go about persuading
April 29, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
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