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PA Primary Predictions
Don't expect the results to come in right away. All 67 counties have different methods for vote counting (Yeah, I know, it's a Florida 2000 waiting to happen!), so it will take a while for any kind of pattern to develop. The first results will be from the two big cities - Philadelphia and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh). The rest of the state - the "Alabama in the middle" - will be long in coming. The area around Scranton could be a bellwhether for reasons too numerous to mention here.
So, the envelopes please...
1. Expect the results slow in coming (see above). Don't take results from Philly to be the be-all, end-all. My call is that the results won't be known until after midnight eastern time.
2. It's Obama by a nose. Or Hillary, but also by a nose. Neither will get the knock-out they need.
So it'll be on to Indiana and North Carolina...
Comments (17)
Iam going to guess anywhere between +5 to +12 for Clinton, thus giving her minor amount of delegates and her last firewall state will be done, then on to my state were we will finally put the last nail in the coffin.
April 21, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am going to respectfully disagree with your prediction. Obama has no chance of winning, even "by a nose." Clinton, too, is likely not only going to win, but win substantially. The slew of latest polls shows movement towards her, especially in the case of last-minute undecideds, so I'm going to stand by my prediction but be a little more bold and say that she'll win by 10-14 pts. The media coverage of Obama is just insanely negative in these last few weeks (as it once was of Hillary) which makes me more certain that they are trying to drag this race out and keep the public's interest.
April 21, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't under-estimate the Daily Show "bump" that Obama is going to get tonight! (How's that for timing?)
I suppose one shouldn't over-estimate it, either. :P
April 21, 2008 10:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Also, don't overestimate the "Alabama in the middle's" TV viewing habits, which is where almost all of the negative, silly press is coming from. They don't sit in front of the cable nets, hanging onto every word like we in here do. I've scoured the newspaper blogs from my old PA hometown (in the Alabama middle) and believe me, these folks aren't watching CNN or MSNBC. They watch their local news, which compared to the cable nets, still resembles real news.
April 21, 2008 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Polls in PA have a long history of being inaccurate, more so than the rest of the country. Witness the wide spread between them. I am basing my call on the crowds (which were not aggressively recruited by the Obama campaign, anyway) and by talking to folks on the ground here. Not "scientific", but more on my experience with PA politics.
April 21, 2008 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary wins by 12 -15 pt.
The polls show it like an avg of 48-41, but add that up, you don't get to 100. That means roughyl 10% undecided in these polls. 2/3 of the late deciders will break for Hillary, the safe known quantity.
That means 55 -40 or so.
My guess: 15pt. or if he's lucky 12 pt.
April 21, 2008 9:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
and 55+40 adds to 100?
April 21, 2008 10:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton or her supporters were good at math, do you think she'd still be in it?
April 21, 2008 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton by 8, and not much progress on her part re delegates (maybe a net 5 or so).
April 21, 2008 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
My prediction is that it's going to be somewhere between a 5 point win for Obama and a 20 point win for Clinton. You can quote me on that!
April 21, 2008 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Gravel by 7.
April 21, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Depends on turnout and the competence of local election boards (always an issue, especially with these awful electronic voting machines with no paper trail or audit trail. From what I'm hearing, I wouldn't expect a smooth night, or early returns. After midnight, certainly.).
Clinton by 2-5 if turnout is light. Obama by 1-4 if turnout is heavier in Philly, the Northeast, and Centre County than is expected based on past experience.
April 21, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
One of the things I've found in the 20+ years I've lived here and 17 years of covering news here is that voters in PA are a pretty nuanced group. In a lot of ways, they are, like the saying, pretty conservative and old-fashioned. In other ways, they're pretty progressive at the same time. Just take a look at Senators Spector and Casey and Governor Rendell. You can't pigeon-hole these voters easily.
Traditional marketing and polling techniques don't work well here.
April 21, 2008 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton wins PA by single digits.
Obama maintains his fundraising dominance.
Clinton supporters trot out the "He can't seal the deal" nonsense.
Obama wins NC big and Indiana by a margin which erases her PA delegate haul.
Clinton keeps talking about being in it until Denver.
SuperDs keep trickling toward Obama.
Dean keeps the pressure up for them to declare.
Obama starts thumping on McCain more and more.
Clinton keeps smearing Obama and talking about how awesome she will be in the GE because the whole country already knows her and knows she has no shame.
SuperDs put Obama over the top after Puerto Rico.
Clinton reiterates that she's staying in the race until Denver and is willing to fight for MI and FL.
TPM Regulars create a drinking game in which you have to take one shot, regardless of where you are, for every time that someone makes mentions HUSSEIN or Obama/Osama/Obomber/etc.
Certain trolls maniupulate this fact to get us all to develop drinking problems so out of control that voter turnout is suppressed in November.
Obama still wins the GE because the vast majority of Americans do not want a President who is wearing an onion on his belt.
How's that? I know it's more comprehensive than you requested, but I figured I would get on the record now.
April 21, 2008 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton will win Pennsylvania by 13-15 points. And I''d be much more surprised if it was less than if it was slightly more. I think the vast majority of the undecided voters will vote Clinton because the feeling will be then that the election will go on, whereas if they voted Obama then it could end sooner than later. I mean if your undecided this late in the game, you probably want somebody else to make the decision for you - so let Indiana, NC, Guam, S.Dakota, Oregon, Puerto Rico, West Virginia and the rest decide.
April 21, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, either one by a nose is a knockout for Obama.
April 21, 2008 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Enjoy your election day, Navy Gray!
Cheers!
April 21, 2008 10:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
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