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On "Closing the Deal"

So the Clinton camp and many of tonight's pundits are wondering why Barack Obama can't "close the deal."  This is a flawed argument for at least five reasons:

1) Assumes that earlier primaries/caucuses are less important than later ones.  Given the traditional emphasis on Iowa and New Hampshire, along with the gambits of Florida and Michigan, this is an ironic assumption, indeed.  Obama has closed plenty of deals in previous elections.  There are more than 50 contests spread over time.  The primary rules give a role for each of these contests, and to suggest that later contests are somehow more important is to impune the structure of the primary system itself.  The Clinton folks don't seem to appreciate the real relevance of Obama's claim that "a loss is a loss."  Clinton's past losses still count.

2) Fails to appreciate Clinton's strengths.  The idea that many Democrats in the remaining states still prefer Clinton indicates something that everyone has always known: Clinton is a strong candidate.  It is not reasonable to believe that Clinton will suddenly become a weak candidate simply because it is late in the process.

3) This primary was Clinton's deal to close from the beginning.  All of the polls and expectations were on her side.  She had/has the Democratic establishment on her side.  Not only did she not close the deal, she went from presumptive winner to runner up.

4) Divided companies never close deals, their competitors do.  Since this is a business analogy, let's stick with it.  Even if there is division in a company in debating whether or not to go for a deal, once a decision has been made to go for it, successful companies present a unified front.  If they appear divided, the buyers go somewhere else.  Hillary Clinton has not only tried to say that she is the better Democratic candidate, she has argued that Obama is a bad Democratic candidate.  Her strategy is no longer just to build on her strengths, but rather to break Obama's down.  Obama just has not gone nearly as negative against Clinton as she has against him, and it is no surprise that Obama is having difficulty creating a clear Democratic mandate in such an environment.

5) Assumes that primaries end in knockout punches rather than contests decided by the judges.  Let's switch from business to boxing.  If there is no knockout, the boxing match is determined by how each round is scored by the judges.  Failing to score well in some later rounds does nullify scoring well in many early rounds.  Barack Obama neither needs to knock Hillary Clinton out, nor, do I think he wants to.

Now, having argued all of this, I will risk one final claim that may nullify any conversation about the above because so many people will disagree with this one final point: I am among those who are really beginning to wonder if Obama can close the deal in November without Clinton on his ticket.  Yes, she has huge negatives.  Yes, former President Clinton will be a dicey third wheel.  But Clinton's negatives may not compare with the negatives produced within the Democratic party created by this primary.  Obama needs to decide which batch of negatives he wants to deal with.  Yes, having Bill Clinton around will be novel, but not impossible.  The novelty of such a situation may not be inappropriate in what is clearly a novel Democratic primary.


Comments (6)

Excellent post until the last paragraph. I recommended it anyway.

The GOP would *love* to have HRC on the ticket. Double the mud slinging for 1/2 the price. At one point that might have even been plausible. Today it is not.

All the GOP has to do is rerun HRC's swipes at Obama, couple that with her Bosnia story, and tell the voters that the Dems are the party of nutcases and cranks who will do and say anything to get into office.

Obama/Clinton is indeed a dream ticket -- for the GOP.

Should the unlikely occur and HRC win the nomination *and* choose Obama as VP, then the same thing will happen... again by focusing on HRC's swipes.

Hillary knows this. Wants to always be able to set up an argument to Party Elders that Obama shouldn't ever be on her ticket.

She is one clever, sleazy politician, that is for sure.

One other consideration on the last point:

An Obama/Clinton ticket would not be a president/vice-president ticket. It would be a co-president/co-president/co-president ticket.

This means that they can attack the ticket from every conceivable angle and on every conceivable issue. They can fully exploit and profit from the weaknesses of all three (including, as said above, their own previous attacks against one another).

Usually, the vice presidential part of the ticket is not that big of liability. This "dream ticket" presents three major targets for the Republican opponent, rather than one major and one very minor target.

I'm not saying the split in the party isn't a huge problem; I really believe it is at this point. But I think the combined ticket would create bigger problems than it would solve.

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1) Obama has had the "momentum" three times thus far (Iowa-New Hampshire, leading up to Super Tuesday, leading up to Ohio-Texas). In each case, he could have "closed the deal" (i.e. sealed the nomination up in most party member's eyes) had he won. He lost NH despite the polls showing him with a lead, he lost CA despite polls showing a tie, and he lost TX and OH (and OH by a decent margin!) despite the polls showing him near even in both. The fact is, closing the deals refers to the minds of the voters. For some reason, Obama cannot close the deal with voters. Even when 2/3 of voters say Obama will be the NOMINEE! he's going to lose PA by 8-12 pts. That's the point. This talk of early contests mattering less than the most recent contests shows that you are missing the point of the argument.

2) This adds on to 1. If Obama is practically the party's nominee, it doesn't matter if Clinton is still strong. He's leading in most national polls by 10 pts. Why can't he finish it for real?

3) This is irrelevant to the fact that Obama cannot close the deal. Clinton couldn't close the deal. And? That's widely accepted, since she's been with her back against the wall since Iowa. Why has Obama never been able to finish it?

4) I agree with this point. But it's not only Clinton that believes that she's the better candidate and that she truly NEEDS to go up against McCain. Most of her supporters (including the 55% of PA primary voters) feel that not only is Clinton stronger, but Obama is lacking. We appreciate the fact that Clinton is exposing Obama's weaknesses before it's too late.

At this point, I don't think Clinton will need to be Obama's running mate. I think we're seeing a very interesting progression here. Clinton is now ahead in the popular vote according to one metric. If she wins IN (which is very possible) and limits the fallout in NC, then follows it with convincing wins in KY and WV (which are very likely 2-1 Clinton territory), she will go into Puerto Rico and truly grab hold of the popular vote by the metric that includes only FL (which I think is the one's superdels are going to use).

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Both candidates have accomplished something rather unique: What seems most clear at this time is that the Democratic candidate will not be a white male. (I'd like to believe that race and gender are not factors in our politics but...)

Both are running in uncharted territory and so are voters. It does not seem surprising that neither can "close the deal." Isn't it the voters that can't close the deal?

Nicely put.

Last thoughts before I call it a night. I think Obama could have closed this out long ago if he really went negative on Clinton. She is a sitting duck in this regard. I think he has avoided it out of principle, but this system is not (yet) rewarding this decisively.

Regarding the double whammy vs. dream ticket issue, I think it is not a dream ticket, but it might be the best ticket. Look, I think the voters think you have to be a bit nutty to run for president in the first place. They will certainly discover a whole lot of McCain nuttiness in the months ahead. The nuttiness will wash. Obama/Clinton would win on issues and anti-Republican sentiment. Good night.

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