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Obama's ceiling in PA about 42%
Looking at RCP's PA polling numbers, one thing I've noticed is that Obama doesn't break 42% in almost all of the polls.
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread(This is probably garbled in the formatting so look here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html)
RCP Average 04/17 - 04/20 - 48.8 43.5 Clinton +5.3
Zogby Tracking 04/19 - 04/20 602 LV 48 42 Clinton +6.0
Suffolk 04/19 - 04/20 600 LV 52 42 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D) 04/19 - 04/20 2338 LV 46 49 Obama +3.0
Strategic Vision (R) 04/18 - 04/20 LV 48 41 Clinton +7.0
Quinnipiac 04/18 - 04/20 1027 LV 51 44 Clinton +7.0
Mason-Dixon 04/17 - 04/18 625 LV 48 43 Clinton +5.0
Also, the numbers never add up to 100%, which means we have late deciders, who will probably break for the known quantity (Hillary).
If we use this ceiling as a benchmark, 100 - 42 = 58, we get 58% for Hillary and a 16 pt spread.
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Comments (14)
Hillarys ceiling nationally is around 40-45.
April 21, 2008 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
hmm . . . you list 7 polls. in 2, obama is at 42 percent; in one, he is at 41. in the other 4, the number ranges from 43 to 49. so i'm not sure how that translates into "doesn't break 42% in almost all the polls" . . .
i agree, late deciders will probably break for hillary. but there's a decent chance obama will do better than 42%--based simply on the polls you present.
April 21, 2008 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
49 is an outlier.
Yes, there are a few 44s there, so perhaps the avg. ceiling is about 43 pts.
100 - 43 = 57 for a 14pt spread.
He's having a bad week, and the late deciders are likely for Hillary. They broke for her in Ohio, and PA is Ohio on steroids. Plus his bad week and ABC's attack.
My guess: abotu 15 pt?
April 21, 2008 11:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
If he has a bad day, it could go as high as 20%, with say a Bradley effect.
PA could be a blood bath. Personally, I don't think I'll even bother watching TV that night. Either way, he's guaranteed a loss and it could very well be ugly. Then we get treated to Hillary's obnoxious gloating arrogance and the media narrativizing.
April 21, 2008 11:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
i'll predict clinton +12
i'll take your 42% with 8% undecided
and have them break 3-1
yielding 56-44
April 21, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Younger voters are under represented in the polls. Many of them only have cell phones.
I see Hillary winning by 5-6 points
April 21, 2008 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it'll be an 8 pt spread... 54-46 in favor Clinton.
She'll gain around 8 delegates and the calls for her to drop out with skyrocket.
Obama will win NC by 15 and IN by 5.
She'll drop out the next day.
April 21, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
By the same reasoning, Clinton's ceiling is at 52. She doesn't break that number in any of the polls. Therefore, she can't possibly get more tomorrow. So, 100 - 52 = 48. My prediction: Clinton 52, Obama 48.
Of course, both my prediction and your prediction are based upon logical fallacies.
April 21, 2008 11:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who the hell are they polling. None of the dems in my household. As a PA DEM with an emotional investment in Obama, I find the average white male reluctant to admit it, but when coaxed spews forth his support for Barack. Not the elite mind you, but steelworkers, printers, electricians, all sick o0f the status quo. And if he doesn't do what we want, in 4 years someone else gets the job. America does not want Bill wandering around the White House with nothing to do and plenty of interns to do it with. I predict an upset for the people of short memory when the polls close Tuesday nite. Don't get me wrong, I liked Bill Clinton, but she is no Bill Clinton.
April 21, 2008 12:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's called wishful thinking. I had the same hopes for Texas, but people are afraid of change and easily swayed by bullshit.
I wish I was wrong, but I'm just hoping it is not a bloodbath.
April 21, 2008 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
"By the same reasoning, Clinton's ceiling is at 52. She doesn't break that number in any of the polls. Therefore, she can't possibly get more tomorrow. So, 100 - 52 = 48. My prediction: Clinton 52, Obama 48."
Did you miss my bit about the undecideds not being counted in these polls? Sure, her ceilign was 52, but with the undecideds breaking for her like in Ohio, she'll get something between 55 and 60, meaning approx. 15 pt spread.
April 21, 2008 12:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
But you give NONE of the undecided to Obama. Is that realistic?
April 21, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
This penguin is still standing on his prediction of a 55-45 split.
April 21, 2008 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought the "ceiling" idea was interesting but Allsburg is busting my chops over it so to revise it a little bit:
RCP Avg (excluding the PPP outlier):
Clinton: 49.7
Obama: 42.8
Decideds: 92.5
Undecideds: 7.5
In Ohio, Hillary won undecideds by 20%.
Thus, Hillary gets 4.5 of those to Obama's 3.
Final results:
Clinton: 54.2
Obama: 45.8
Spread: 8.4
Round it and you get around 54 - 46, wih 8 pt spread. So he gets a little higher than the "ceiling" in previous polls.
If true, this would be great. Anything under 10 pts is a moral victory, especially in light of his terrible week.
April 21, 2008 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
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