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Obama: The anti-expectation setter
In the long run, I doubt the pre-election expectation setting has a significant impact. You can only spin reality so much. But it is odd how the Obama campaign is playing the game in reverse.
Aren't you supposed to exaggerate your expectations to fundraisers in private meetings and then lower your expectations in the press to magnify your victories and mitigate your losses?
Instead, Obama lowers expectations to his fundraisers in private ("anything better than a 10-pt. loss will be good for us") and raises expectations in public (his comment that "the race will be closer than what people think" and the campaign spokesman saying tonight the exit polls are "significantly better" than Ohio).
I don't know what to make of it. Is this just inexperience, wanting to encourage their young supporters, or something else?
Comments (4)
I believe the general consensus in a previous thread was that it was a strong GOTV push in order to eke out a few more extra votes and keep the margin slim for the super-delegates. In terms of fundraisers, he has more funds than he knows what to do with, so I bet he is just being straight with them.
April 22, 2008 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wonder if he is trying to GOTV.
Saying you will lose big might hurt motivation. Maybe he is willing to lose the spin game but keep the vote closer, knowing that the overall delegate count will decide it. You know, think longterm, and not worry about what Joe Scarborough thinks on Wednesday.
April 22, 2008 9:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
But aren't most people aware by this point that the margin of the win matters almost as much as the win? I don't see many people staying at home because he can't win the state, and he gives up a little bit of post-election expectation setting by doing this.
April 22, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keeping Hillary in a single digit win is managing expectations on both counts: Significant movement from 33 points down. But saying that given PA's demographics, Obama versus Clinton (well-known, machine support, etc.) anything under under 10 is doing far better than expected.
Plus you know he is always saying to fundraisers: SHE'S BROKE. The behind the scenes strategy is to BANKRUPT HER. (Think Monopoly).
April 22, 2008 10:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
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