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Obama Super Delegate Appeal
One measure of Obama's appeal to SDs is a comparison of Obama states
with limited Clinton SDs, and Clinton states with limited Obama SDs.
Let's look at how this comparison works for the
candidates earning either 0 or 1 super delegates in their opponent's
states/contests.
For Clinton states:
0 SDs for Obama - 2(AR, GU)
1 SD for Obama - 1 (NY)
For Obama states
0 SDs for Clinton - 8 (MT, SD, WY, NE, ND, ID, IL, MS)
1 SD for Clinton - 9 (UT, AK, NC, OR, KS, ME, CT, VT, DA)
Clinton won 1 delegate or less in 17 Obama states, Obama in only 3 Clinton states. I see that as a pretty powerful metric of super delegate appeal.
And Guam is an anomaly. First, the election is this week, so there is a good are reason for supers to hold up. Second, there are only 5 supers and only 1 has endorsed Clinton. And, of the remaining 4, there are two vacancies.
Comments (3)
I haven't been paying attention to Guam—is it a foregone conclusion that it's a "Clinton state"?
April 29, 2008 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is Guam a foregone conclusion?
No, like Indiana, it's up in the air, but I have to call it for someone. Clinton has one super to Obama's none.
I could have left off Guam, but then my analysis would have been incomplete.
For relevant contests, it's 17 to 2.
April 29, 2008 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh come now -- those are all states that don't matter! Haven't you been paying attention? Only the big states matter, for pete's sake. In fact, only CA, NY, OH and PA matter. This is now the Four United States of America -- where have you been? (Unless it becomes the Six United States of America, counting MI and FL.)
Pity poor usins down here in FL -- we don't know if we're in the SUSA yet or not.
April 29, 2008 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
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