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Obama has a problem.
OK, I think it was inevitable someone would post this to precipitate discussion, so I figure it might as well be me.
Obama lost by around 9.4% last night.
He spent more money on advertising than any presidential candidate in history in PA, and probably spent more time there than any candidate in history (maybe tied with Hillary). His ads apparently ran almost 10,000 times on TV, and the average Pennsylvanian will have seen his ads 100 times. He ran a mixture of positive, factual, and
negative ads across all forms of media. I think it's fair to say
that there were very, very few voters who didn't know who
Barack was, and what he stood for, and his name recognition was probably higher in PA than anywhere outside of Illinois.
His big success of the night, was winning the black vote by 92%, with black turnout estimated at 13% from exit polls. That means he lost the non-black vote by around 25%, 62-38.
Is this indicative of a big potential problem for Barack?
Do states like Ohio and PA not matter?
Will it all get rinsed out in the wash after the nomination is decided?
Your views, as ever, are appreciated.













Comments (34)
Perhaps Obama does have a problem, but not nearly as bad a problem as Hillary has in Colorado and other states where she will never ever be elected.
April 23, 2008 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you had to have a problem though, you'd probably rather it was Colorado (9 electoral seats) than PA and OH (41 seats) though, right?
April 23, 2008 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama does not have an Ohio problem any more than Hillary has a Wisconsin problem.
April 23, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Check out this site http://www.electoral-vote.com/ which shows match-ups state by state. Obama does currently have more of an Ohio problem.
In case anyone's interested, based on match-ups in each state, Hillary currently beats McCain 289-239, while Obama wins 269-254.
April 23, 2008 9:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Check out SUSA's electoral map comparisons for Obama and Clinton vs McCain. It's considerably bluer for Obama. The truth is that Hillary can only win with Florida, which just has not come through for us in the past, even when we have won it.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/3/6/171434/3343/170/467660
April 23, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
True, but that's SUSA's truth as of March 6. My link averages all polling companies and is updated daily... I'd argue it's less inaccurate :-)
April 23, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who's more accurate about Nov. at this stage is meaningless, however the snapshots are insightful.
April 23, 2008 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Er, no. Obama won Missouri, Colorado, Kansas and Virginia. Those three red turning purple states count for 39 electoral votes . . . votes of states where Hillary simply would not be competitive. How are those 39 less important than her Penn. plus New Jersey wins, which represent only 36 electoral votes. And in the most glaring example, how is Georgia, with 15 electoral votes, a "small" state but New Kersey, with the same number, a "big" state?
There is much falacious thinking among the Hillary supporters . . . such as counting the popular votes of states that send no delegates (Florida and Michigan) but excluding states that had caucuses and do send delegates. And they exclude his margin in Illinois which, interestingly, was twice her margin in the much larger New York. W.t.f.? Why not just exclude all states that start with "W"? That makes as much sense!
In the end there are a few realities that, in my mind, make Obama the nominee: he leads in the popular vote, he leads in delegates won, and he leads in states won. He will run a 50 state campaign and help down ticket in places like North Dakota, and he puts purple states like Missouri and Colorado in the Dem catagory. He will take a state like Kansas, while Hillary won't even campaign there. Add in the fact that she has run a horrid campaign, mismanaged her money, and played a thinly veiled race card, she simply has done nothing to deserve the right to run against McCain. And I won't even add in the fact that Obama runs ahead of McCain while shge runs behind . . . .
April 23, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, you're not only angry, but wrong, on many counts. Easiest example is Missouri - Obama beat Clinton there by less the 1% I think. According to the latest match-ups that I could find, however, Clinton beats McCain 47-46, while Obama *loses* 42-50.
Oops.
April 23, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, and based on exit polling data, his only problem is Hillary's advantage in name and branding. 10% of the voters decided in the booth and an additional 15% decided within the last week. For those that were undecideds, they broke fairly dramatically for Hillary and were the race. Given her name in PA and the Rendell machine, I don't think that is terribly surprising. The only thing surprising to me was the high number, 25% combined. That those voters couldn't decide until that late in the process tells me that he made significant progress with them but in the end they went with the "known" versus the unknown in Barack. Come November, that advantage hopefully will flow to Barack versus McCain given the amount of time he spent there for the primary.
April 23, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Are you joking? You genuinely think Obama had a name disadvantage in PA? Perhaps, in other contests, that was an excuse. Not this time.
April 23, 2008 9:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excuse is a bit of a strong word. You are operating from the belief that all voters are even vaguely as hyper-informed as you or any other posters are.
Brand is important, and drive-by voters can effectively ignore all information and vote on name recognition. It is not a major leap.
Else why do we have Bush? Clearly he was not elected for his great thinking, or insights into human nature.
April 23, 2008 9:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
The belief I'm operating from on name recognition is simply that the average voter watches TV (or listens to the radio, looks at the odd billboard, or glances at the front page of a newspaper). Obama blitzed these media, and it just isn't credible that significant numbers of people missed his branding exercise. Further arguing against the idea that name recognition was a significant factor in Obama's defeat is the record turnout - more than twice 2004 I think. Voter turnout doesn't double if people are barely aware there's an election going on, or that it's close and their vote matters.
April 23, 2008 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course Pennsylvania matters, but it merely represents that no candidate can appeal to every voter. As the pundits have endlessly dissected (and possibly exaggerated), the demographics of Pennsylvania were ideal for Hillary.
I think a lot of it will. Not all of it, but most of it.
An interesting change, that I haven't heard the Clinton supporters bring up (so maybe my facts are wrong), but I think this now means that Clinton has more of the popular vote if you include FL and MI. NC will probably reverse this trend, but I predict this will increase the acrimony regarding those two states.
April 23, 2008 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
One of the pundits for MSNBC did a dissection of this. It's on their website.
April 23, 2008 9:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep - 206,000 more (less than her PA margin) and she'll have it without Michigan...
April 23, 2008 9:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sure as heck won't slow it down.
April 23, 2008 10:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
The problem that Obama has is that he is new.
Yes, we know him now having watched him certainly for the last 14 to 15 months. Yet, average Americans 1) do not pay nearly as close attention to politics as pretty much anyone who reads blogs, etc. and 2) many of them are afraid of new things.
He is certainly the youngest looking candidate in a decades, even though Bill Clinton was actually younger in 1992 than Obama is today.
He is black. Enough said there. I'm sure we all know people who wouldn't vote for a minority of any sort for president even if that person was a Medal of Honor winner, cured the common cold, and built those people a new home. There are enough of those people who, more because of ignorance than rascism, just cannot bring themselves to vote for a black man.
Next, when you try to run a campaign of hope, unity, above board, and all those other good things, it becomes a bit harder to attack your opponent because than you look like a hypocrite. Unfortunately, as we have seen since the days of Lee Atwater, negative campaigning works.
Most Obama supporters don't have a problem with most of Hillary's proposals- although her nuclear umbrella for the entire Middle East is insane- we have a problem with her.
We know that more than 50% of American simply WILL NOT vote for her. She is the most polarizing figure in American political history- with maybe the exception of Abraham Lincoln (that comparison requires some thought).
She simply can not win in November...and she and her supporters are the only ones who do not realize that.
If she becomes the nominee...and loses, I can't wait to hear the griping from all the old white women who are her base. But when the GOP evicerates Social Security in a McCain presidency, then we can look those senior citizens in the face when they look for some one to blame... tell them to look in the mirror.
April 23, 2008 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Race card. Always the race card with Obama supporters why he can't seal the deal. Please not all old white people, all middle class white people, all hispanics are racist. They entrust their futures in Hillary's hands rather and Baracks. Its that simple.
As a Hillary supporter I'd say that Obama supporters are the last people that can't see that he won't win in November. The McCain people are saying that they want him rather than Hillary. They know that he has real problems winning in states that he has to do well in. We can argue about what states he can be competitive in all we want but history is a great teacher. Look back over the GE's. He has to be able to win and be competitive in Ohio and Florida to have a chance to win the GE. I think its clear he isn't competitive in either.
The electoral facts are there. There is no way to get around reality.
April 23, 2008 10:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Many people I've talked to in my home state of California regret voting for Clinton this past February. Our primary is usually held in June. The recognition factor played a big part in their decision at the time. Had our primary not been moved ahead, I feel Obama would have won our primary handily in June. Californians on the whole have the savvy and sophistication to see through Clinton's pandering, blatant lies and slash and burn politics. Her popularity has taken a dive in our state no doubt in my mind.
April 23, 2008 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's problemm is Clinton. But since she is nominally a political ally, we should be able to assume she will gracefully conced in Denver when she lacks a majority.
April 23, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Please, don't use "graceful" and "Hillary" in the same paragraph.
AND PLEASE! ALL OF YOU! DO NOT LUMP ALL WOMEN OVER 50 INTO HILLARY'S DEMOGRAPHIC! IT IS EMBARASSING ME!!!!
April 23, 2008 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I admire your optimism.
April 23, 2008 10:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will also lack a majority of delegates. Should he also withdraw from the race?
April 24, 2008 3:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good to see this being fairly discussed. If Barack Obama gets the nomination, Hillary and Bill said they'd support him 100%. I see him winning the presidency without needing all their supporters.
He only needs a good chunk of them.
The more devastating number is the 95% of African American voters who aren't voting for Hillary.
April 23, 2008 9:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Barack were on the ticket as VP (which, I submit, is much more likely than vice versa), do you really think African American voters wouldn't come out in droves for him? That's 14% of the vote you could take to the bank, plus Hillary's blue-collar and union voters, and Obama's liberal elites. :-)
April 23, 2008 9:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think this thing heals itself when a nominee is selected.
Obama leads McCain in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and it is very close in Ohio. Obama will win Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Massachsettes, Conneticut, Rhode Island, Minnesota, Delaware, DC, Virginia, and California... while adding Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, South Dakota, Vermont, New Hampshire, and New Mexico.
He is also going to compete in Kansas, Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, Florida, and the Carolinas.
McCain will be spread so thin, Obama will win by a good margin.
I just see that as the reality of the situation.
Most frustration about the primary is the fact the most of us Obama supporters see that Hillary cannpt catch up in any of the criteria set up to be selected as the nominee (delegates, popular votes, states won) yet she continues to drag this fight on to the detriment of the Democratic party.
The number I hold on to is the 8% of Pennsylvanians who said they would never ever ever ever vote for a black man. Take that racist vote out, and it's a 1 pt spread.
April 23, 2008 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
His problem is he cannot simply come out, as some pundits suggest, and cut her off at the knees. Why? Because he has run a campaign based on hope and positive feelings (with some nastiness here and there but hope for change in politics is his basic campaign theme). So these pundits question whether he can hit back and fight back - yet the second he does the media will say he has abandoned his hope theme and is playing same old politics. So he is boxed into a very strange corner.
Not winning PA is nothing. A 9 point margin, as it seems it will be, is not terrible. The state is Oldest one, large white %, catholic. These are Hillary's demographics and advertising does not shift large %'s of people who are fairly committed and have watched the campaign since last year - advertising works at the margins in a campaign that is this far into it. She was also lucky this state was waiting on April 22. If it had been Super Tuesday and no PA awaiting her, she would be toast.
April 23, 2008 9:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Barack being Hillary's VP would only be more likely because that would be a low price for Hillary to pay take the nomination. AS far as AAs not coming out for the ticket if Barack is only the VP, I can tell you that many would NOT. Look, people aren't stupid. If Hillary is given the nom. by party the supers AAs will not be sanguine just because Barack was offered the backseat!
April 23, 2008 9:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
The part that is missing here is that we are still in a battle where the focus is on these two Dems and once the nominee is settled and the party begins to come together and begin to compare with old John McSame; these record numbers of Dems who have been participating this year will change the map for either candidate to a degree and especially for Obama.
We all know that the pollsters this year just don't know how to account for all of these new or newly excited voters. This has all the makings of a game changer!
April 23, 2008 10:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree John, and I think it is interesting facet to discuss the possibility the two headed monster not allowing the Republicans sufficient time to hammer their message against the Democratic nominee whoever it might be. You have one candidate whom you know fairly well and you have another whom you know very little. Of course the Republicans have their researches digging dirt but in all honesty how will John McCain design his policy to counter theirs and how will his policy chnage with current events from now till Novemeber not knowing whom he wil face until possibly June or July?
April 23, 2008 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Yes, we know [Obama] now having watched him certainly for the last 14 to 15 months. Yet, average Americans 1) do not pay nearly as close attention to politics as pretty much anyone who reads blogs, etc. and 2) many of them are afraid of new things."
How do you know what "average Americans" do or don't do as concerns politics? The same BS was said when Clinton was being impeached, and yet nearly 70 per cent supported Clintin against impeachment.
There are far toe many who hype their views -- exaggerate the validity of their hypotheses -- by speculating, with unequivocal certitude, about where "average Americans" are at without ever having talked to them. It reminds of Nixon's claim that he was supported by the "silent majority". As long as they remained silent, we couldn't know whether they were the majority or not. (It also effectively told those who supported him to any degree to shut up -- which kept them from being counted as to whethr they were a majority or a minority.)
I really get tired of know-it-alls who tell me what I think and believe without ever asking me.
April 23, 2008 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only problem is people who think that because Hillary beat Obama in a state, he can't win in the GE.
What an absurd premise.
Unless she's a Republican.
April 23, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
A few observations. All Obama supporters (and I am a strong one) need to be honest with themselves and admit Hillary had a very strong showing in PA. I doubt name recognition was really a problem.
As I write, MSNBC (first airing of Hardball) is talking about a generational gap and the tremendously strong support among older white women for Clinton. Also, based on exit polls (slightly different numbers on MSNBC last night and the NY Times this AM), about 6.5 to 8 points of Clinton's 9.4 point margin can be attributed to voters who feel strongly about race. This probably shows racism having less of an impact than years ago, but its significance is still there. The numbers for older women on the whole seem to reflect strong feminist support among many women who grew up when opportunities for women were much more limited than today.
MSNBC is now talking about the white Catholic vote and how many Clinton supporters in that group would not support Obama if he gets the nomination. This country still has a long way to go to get rid of its prejudices, and probably never will.
My unhappiness is that we have a first rate candidate in Obama, someone attractive to younger people and the young at heart (people like me, despite being 74). We older people have got to recognize that all the benefits we have been getting will in the long run have to be paid for by our children and grandchildren, as will the tremendous Bush debts due to a war being fought, in my view, to avenge a failed assassination attempt against his father. It is time to give this country younger, more inspirational leadership, and as far as I'm concerned, that's Obama. If Hillary somehow manages to get the nomination, she will be a better choice than McCain, but let's not expect the kind of change that the country really needs.
April 23, 2008 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
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