Good info. You should start doing Chuck Todd's job for him.

I believe the state legislature is still using boundaries from a court decision (not the proposed "gerrymandered" map. It was SUPPOSED to pave the way for the GOP to be strongly competitive, but the Dems have steadily expanded their majority, even during the height of the Jim Black (former Dem speaker) scandal.

I see several factors at play. First, big business is largely in the Dems "big tent" on the state level. Even with progressives' rise in the party ranks, the business community is not flocking to the GOP. So, the state GOP is mostly dominated by the radical right "bomb throwers."

Which leads to the second point - the state GOP is extremely ineffective. They briefly held the state legislature after 1994, and were a complete trainwreck. They don't know how to win elections, they just like "stirring the turd." Local conservatives will shake their heads in dismay and agree with this assessment.

Third, NC is indeed getting more progressive. "Liberal" is no longer considered a four letter word. Newcomers to the state haven't been lockstep Dems, but not amenable to radical right politics, either. NC has historically been very strongly committed to higher education, and an educated populace generally trends left (or at least center-left) over time. The trend in NC is like VA, but with a more established state party base (and a weaker state GOP).

58-42 is a reasonable call. The margin could easily be higher, as both Dem gubernatorial candidates are strong Obama supporters (as are all committed big/medium sized city mayors and all committed members of Congress). I would put the range at 15-25 points, with at least a 10 delegate margin - i.e., completely cancelling Hillary's "huge" win in PA.

I'm taking my 9-year old daughter to Obama's event in Chapel Hill Monday night, as much as it pains this Wolfpacker to sit in the Dean Dome. Expect a HUGE crowd.

Actually, the economy isn't as rosy as you paint it. Those of us who live in the more rural counties and non-Triangle metros would beg to differ with you. For many of us, the upside to this economic downturn is the hope that most of the current denizens of Cary and Carrboro will quickly return from whence they came.

As a relatively recent transplant, you probably haven't heard of the two other "governors named Jim": Holshouser and Martin. This state trends purple, not blue. Try spending some time Down East or in the western counties other than Buncombe. By the way, if you can't be bothered to spell out "African-American" just write "black". We're not "AA"s. What black person do you know who actually calls themselves an AA? Damn faux liberals.

NC has some of the most wildly gerrymandered districts I've seen anywhere, which partly explains why Democrats have been able to stay competitive there. It makes sense to me that the 9th, 10th and 11th would be bad news for Obama; I knew Rep. Patrick McHenry when I was growing up and he's just as much of a creep in real life as he seems in the media; Myrick is, of course, a total piece of work. Though the African American vote is small in the Western part of the state, and Obama will surely have his Appalachian issues, I still don't understand why he has neglected to campaign in Asheville. He could really energize the students around there (UNCA, Warren Wilson, etc.) and some of the arty/hippy-dippy crowd.

Do you of any plans for him to come to that area? Any word on what Heath Shuler intends to do?

Anyway, my guess is that he loses Western NC badly, does brilliantly in the rural East and the Triangle, and Greater Charlotte is the real battleground. Thoughts?

Akbarjenkins,

You hit the nail on the head. The state Republican Party is still split as well. The Sue Myrick-Robin Hayes faction are certifiable.

I think you hit the nail right on the head. I am born and raised in Raleigh and agree with you on all points. Especially in play in the raleigh-durham area is the exodus of northerners from the states of Ohio, Upstate NY, Michigan especially...years ago they used to just call them Yankees, now people look at you silly when you use that word. More importantly, affluent northerns used send there kids to schools like Duke Wake Forest and UNC, now the affluent and not so affluent send their smart and not so smart kids to UNC Wilmington to enjoy the beach weather, and App-State (yes Michigan fans they canplay football there) for skiing...

At this point those parents dating back a decade have seen their kids remain here and being empty nesters with no desire to suffer the summers of Florida find NC the perfect median with it´s mostly mild summers. Another phenomenon is that half of the people in this stte that consider themselves Conservatives are progressives, centrist in denial...they decry the supposed liberal bastion in Chapel Hill, but will knee cap whoever to get their child in UNC...I guess basketball trumps all in this state.

But to have Hillary going into the Triad area decrying the exodus of jobs and trade imbalance with CHina is the height of hubris.

Obama wins North Carolina by 9 - 12 points in the primary and the state is potentially in play in the fall.

One of the most remarkable things I've seen is the way Bev Purdue's numbers in the gubenetorial race shot back up after she pulled her last negative ad and declared she wasn't going to do negative campaigning in the race anymore. Her opponent (who also endorses Obama) has been engaging in the same old tired North Carolina attack stuff--things like plucking a single vote out of her entire legislative career and puffing it up as the worst thing that ever happened. Also interesting, however, is that although he's been doing the attack dog thing, he's been attacking her from the left. Incredible. No one, but no one, attacks from the left in North Carolina, but evidently his polling says its the thing to do.

Finally, there's the fact that when most of the

Two points:

1) Hillary's institutional advantages that served her so well in Ohio/Penn will not be present in NC. Angelou/Gen. Shelton are her only major endorsements that I can think of. That could spell GOTV trouble, even if the vaunted Ace Smith is in charge.

2) Making the 4th competitive will be tough for Hillary. Obama has Rep. Price's endorsement; it is also home to Carrboro/Chapel Hill/Durham. It is difficult believing Hillary can overcome that. The AA vote from Durham alone (turnout will be large, I'm sure) will probably be enough to ensure a sizable Obama win in this CD.

Obama will win North Carolina. But NC has a history of race-based politics being used by desperate politicians. Jack Betts had an excellent article in today's Charlotte Observer that details the states' past in that regard.

The best thing that has happened in recent NC politics was the retirement of Jesse Helms, but don't be surprised if some of his old associates find work prior to the primary vote.

Great post! Appreciate the research and synthesis. Recommended!

NC voters are 38% black. Obama will win them 86-14 at worst.

Of the 62% who are white, if he pulls even 35%, which is lower than polls I've seen predict, then his worst performance is:

56-44.

If you give him 90-10 in the black vote, that becomes 57-42. Assume it turns out in overdrive, or that he manages to lose the white vote 60-40, and he's over 60% total.

I say it's 59-40, conservatively (more likely 61-38), giving him easily more of a delegate and popular vote win than Hil got in Penn.

Indiana will be too close to matter. Obama wins the sum of PA/IN/NC. Game over.

I, too, am astonished by Obama's neglecting to campaign in the western part of the state. He hasn't even sent a major surrogate west of Charlotte.

manamongst, thank you, my brother. What Urbinato fails to realize is here in this state, politics is a blood sport, even among Democrats. VaughnB and WNCBlue are on point, as well. The reason why Erskine Bowles lost his senate race to Richard Burr is because he never bothered to campaign away from his yuppie comfort zones. Burr had his visage plastered on billboards from Murphy to Manteo and wolfed down a LOT of barbecue out here in the boonies. Guess who won? If Obama doesn't bother to show up within a mile of a military base or a closed textile or furniture plant, he's toast. There's no excuse for him to ignore the western counties...none.

A group of us is driving to Asheville this week & staying until election day to help get out the vote. I can't wait. Thanks 4 the info :)

"Soon they'll be serving lattes everywhere instead of sweet tea."

I was laughing until I read that. You'll get our sweet tea when you pry the pitchers from our cold dead fingers!!

I'm an NC native who has lived from one end of the state to the other. I agree that because of the Congressional District breakdown, Obama will most likely finish ahead in delegates and he'll probably win the popular vote by a thinner-than-expected margin.

I also have to say that NC is very purple. Democrats have long dominated state politics and the "two Jims" are more like anomalies than anything else. (Though, I did vote for one of the "Jims" twice and I'm a lifelong Democrat)

I also have to say that NC will most likely be in play, no matter the nominee. Historically, they last voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate almost a decade later than Virginia and Bill Clinton came really close. I know polls right now imply that one candidate is more likely than the other to beat McCain in November, but we still don't know how much of this effect is dependent on participation of part-time residents like college students and military personnel and what they will count for in November.

I agree that Obama is most likely to win the delegates and get a slim margin with the popular vote, but I also feel that it'll be a lot closer than most people think.

Urbanato and Goldspinner I hope there is room for "different" opinions here. You guys keep attacking each other and it has become ... let's say interesting. I think both of you have valid points that are being lost in your delivery. As a NC native born in Hickory who now resides in Fayetteville, I have a unique feel of the state. I don't claim a superior view, just my own perspective. Your views are respected by me, but the insults and attempts at insults diminishes your position. Calling someone Republican sounds very Republican to me. Let's talk issues - flag pin anyone?

Urbanato, point taken. I think she's female BTW. Where did you move from and where are you now?

When you all say Obama won't win NC by even 10 percent, you either think he's suddenly going to lose 20% of the black vote, or you think he's going to lose 2/3 or more of the white vote. The last PPP poll where I went to the subdata showed her winning whites 47-40, and that was postWright.

So I think the idea that whites in NC will vote like those in Mississippi, a poorer, less urban, less liberal state, is not really supportable. His get out the vote machine, as he can still pay campaign workers, stabilizes this.

In Georgia, he got 44% of whites, in Virginia 50%. North Carolina has enough liberal whites to get him middle upper thirties at least. He'll be in double digits overall, probably closer to 20 than 10.

Urbinato,

Am I so uppity that you assumed that I have gonads? We sistas tend to speak plainly: I don't despise most transplants, it's the smug little twits with no appreciation of local manners and mores that I would love to send packing. Damn right I'm a Republican: I prefer to monkey-wrench from within the system, it's much more fun and has more panache than sitting around whining about the big, bad GOP. How do you think anything of importance gets leaked, hmm? Thanks for defending my honor, qdog112.