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No, she can't close the deal
No, she can’t close the deal
She is arguably the most famous woman in America
Her husband, the most popular living ex-President, stumps tirelessly for her, tubthumping at between five and eight campaign events a day.
Her daughter - also a household name - holds daily campaign events at colleges, relentlessly soliciting the youth vote.
Her campaign has adopted a say-anything, do-anything policy, has abandoned any sense of restraint when it comes to attacking or smearing her opponent, has opened the floodgates of electoral total war.
Her surrogates - all of whom will similarly say anything, however ridiculous, however estranged from reason or the truth - bombard the mainstream media.
The mainstream media itself compliantly repeats her talking points, however fancinful, turning them into news and perpetuating the myth that this is a close race.
Her opponent, through principle and character, will not attack her back in the same way, thus leaving himself disarmed and apparently at a disadvantage.
Meanwhile he slips on banana skins of his own political making, uttering gauche remarks that can be easily twisted and misrepresented, so handing her free ammunition.
At the same time the Republican party attack dogs bring her opponent into their own sights, and begin firing off salvos, so that her opponent is fighting a defensive war on two fronts.
The media repeats the various specious charges - of unpatriotism, of elitism, of connivance with ancient radicals, of ultra left-wingery - against her opponent as if they are worthy of serious consideration, and creates a firestorm of distortion and manipulated voter emotion through which he has to walk if he is to win the nomination.
And yet, with all this in her favour, in the Pennsylvania primary - a state demographically perfectly aligned to her appeal, with a vast partisan political machinery bent solely to her election, and where she enjoys the endorsement and active stumping support of all but one of the state’s prominent Democratic politicians - her plurality of the vote drops from 25% in early March when campaigning began for real to 9% on the day of voting.
With all this in her favour, her opponent snuck up on her by 16 percentage points.
If Hillary Clinton was able to ‘close the deal’ on Barack Obama she would have won PA by a massive 25% plus, thus sending a torpedo across his bows from which he would not recover, and transmitting an unequivocal signal to the superdelegates whose support is her only means of winning the nomination that she truly is the more electable candidate.
But she tanked. And slowly, little by little, like the fabled tortoise to her hubristic hare, Obama is closing the deal.
Comments (17)
Trying to run out the clock is not "closing the deal". Setting up a string of 10%+ defeats is not "closing the deal". He may skid into the nomination, but that's not "closing the deal" - that's just closing the books. But I guess if you want a front-runner who's just plodding along, that's your choice. Unfortunately, the race goes all the way to November if he stays in, and I don't know that Return of the Son of Plodding Tortoise II will be as exciting of a read as the original.
April 24, 2008 3:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
If HE stays in? As was pointed out when Clinton talked about offering him the VP slot--OBAMA IS WINNING. Still.
Wingman's point remains valid. NEITHER candidate has "closed the deal," and neither has more or less responsibility to do so. Clinton, heal thyself.
May 6th may just be the deal closer we've been looking for.
April 24, 2008 3:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mitt Romney was winning back in December. You see how much good that did him.
"Just may be" - strong assertive words to live by. "Just do it" - a more assertive response.
If not, well, "Anything goes".
April 24, 2008 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Whom will you vote for in 2008 when Obama clinches the Dem nominee?
April 24, 2008 3:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Depends on how he clinches her.
April 24, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm. If he's just "plodding along" to the nomination, what is it that Clinton would be doing if she were to get the nomination?
I have a mental picture on that one, and it ain't pretty.
April 24, 2008 8:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
But I guess if you want a front-runner who's just plodding along, that's your choice.
As opposed to a second-placer who can't catch up in pledged delegates, who can't catch up in add-on delegates, who is losing ground on superdelegates by nearly 80 since Super Tuesday, who can't come close to catching up on fundraising, who can't catch up in the popular vote without counting Michigan where Obama wasn't even on the ballot, whose favorability numbers fell to a seven-year low recently, who can't keep up in the national polls, etc.? One who started out with a huge advantage in name recognition, in funds, in superdelegates (nearly 100 committed to her before the first primary), and in expectations, and squandered all of that through poor planning and bad decisions?
April 24, 2008 3:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
However you look at it, if he doesn't close the deal, anything can happen. Don't like it? Close the deal. Simple as that. It's about getting to the magic number first or else leaving it up to the convention to decide. Don't like the 2nd option? Close the deal. (Actually the "close the deal" view is forgiving - it says Obama can knock Hillary out by winning a tough state even if he doesn't have the numbers confirmed. Likely true. Just do it.)
April 24, 2008 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Regardless of who you support, the Democratic Party nomination process is partly to blame or not blame depending upon how one looks at it. It's not winner take all. So even with a 9.2% victory in PA, HRC only nets a 12 delgate advantage.
The race moves on, if the polls hold up, Obama will win NC by as large or larger a margin, gain 12 or so delgates back. In Indiana, neither is going to gain a major advantage one way or the other.
The race moves on..Well at some point it's over.
So given the rules of the game, as long as each is well financed, and the vote reasonably close, what we are seeing was inevitable, we are just not used to seeing it play out like this.
April 24, 2008 5:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Patience and perseverance are good qualities to test in candidates, don'tcha think?
April 24, 2008 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Two-headed Giant that Barack is battling — the Clintons, a Political Couple which has a hard time of being truthful, and the Republican Spin Machine, are very good, I would say excellent at re-labelling a person and re-characterizing them by use of the Media, brought and paid for by the Republican Party mostly to shape, mold, distort, lie, carricaturize a person so the very thing they are, is not seen and what they are not, is seen! Barack's achievement in Pa -- to close the enormous gap between him and Clinton was a monumentual success and not given much credit by the Republican talkingpoints media. It is a fact that the Clintons' have an army of political hacks all over the country that owe them and they call in favors one by one, which skewes the odds in favor of the Clintons' -- Barack does not have that long coatail to depend on. But, what he does have are political people who are tired of the spin and dishonesty and loyalty to the corporations and who want change, so they forge alliances with Obama whom they know incorporates the best hope for unity, and inspiration which can bring about real change. Obama does not have to tear down his oppnents or speak with a Loud Voice for the masses to hear him, although he is up against a Mighty Giant in the Clintons and the Republicans: Joe Scarborough, Pat Buchanan, Wolf Blitzer, and Fox News TV, which berate, distort and belittle Barack and his accomplishments on a daily basis, 24 hours a day, and yet he is the one that is still standing and still getting endorsements, although bloodied and bruised, as Rush Limbaugh asked his loyalists to do. Ironically, the very Republicans that are helping Hillary today, will turn on her like a mighty sword come Fall if she becomes the nominee! They must know some things they are holding back on because they are trying their darndest to get her to become the Democratic nominee -- it is obvious that she is the one they really want to run against, and so she has a stallworth ally in the Republicans for now. I don't think she is going to make it over the goalpost, however, no matter her Republican support and her own Democratic allies which continue to fuel a racial and gender divide. As Michael Moore so ably pointed out in his recent endorsement of Barack, Hillary Clinton chides Barack for his Pastor, Rev. Wright, yet who did they turn to when Bill was facing Impeachment due to the Monical Lewinsky scandal, who did they call -- yes, the very Rev. Wright himself, such hypocrisy! However, we, the people do have a say in this process, although that too can be suspect with some of the "voting machines" still in process. Yet, despite the odds, we will continue to battle on for indepedence and a true democratic say in this process of ours!
April 24, 2008 7:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Closing the deal" is defined as winning the most delegates. The one with the most points when the buzzer sounds wins! No karate-like death blow required.
That's it.
End of contest.
Game over.
Finished.
April 24, 2008 9:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, it's having the majority of all delegates when the buzzer sounds, not just being ahead.
April 24, 2008 10:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
True words wingman2
The tragedy of this primary is that not only is Hillary 'miss-speaking' to the population, but is also not being true to her own heart positions as a progressive democrat. She has lost herself in this competition and has perverted herself for the sole purpose of winning this battle, and instead of following her heart, she uses her political cunning, rationales, and divisive tactics to win over the population.
As a result she has proven to me that she is no leader of the people, i.e. one who can be trusted to elevate the American people to rise about their self-imposed limitations, reactive thinking and fears
America's potential to inspire the world is tremendous - to shine its soul light to inspire compassion, peace and prosperity. Hillary unfortunately doesn't pass the 'Inspirer in-chief test' and thus won't be able to close the deal.
April 24, 2008 10:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
And please, do tell us what the difference is between being ahead (as in, having more) in delegates when the buzzer soundsd versus having a majority of delegates at that time?
Are yoiu confusing a majority with a plurality? Since there are only two candidates left, the one ending with the most delegates, by definition, has a majority.
April 24, 2008 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
And on top of all that, Has Clinton improved her margin in any state contest, primary or caucus, from one month, three weeks, two weeks out to election day? What's Obama's record? Doesn't he always start out behind but drastically improve (even though not always as much as expected)? In thinking about the general election strength of the two candidates more recently, I think that discussion and awareness of this support arc has been lost.
Elizabeth
April 24, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
However you look at it, if he doesn't close the deal, anything can happen
If he doesn't "close the deal" then anything can happen ... such as the remaining superdelegates going 80% to Hillary (which is around what she needs at this point) who also hasn't been able to "close the deal," and in fact is in second place so she's further from "closing the deal" than Obama, and even worse, all of this is after she had such huge advantages (money, name recognition, nearly 100 superdelegates before the first primary) but blew it through poor planning and bad decision making? Is that what you're including in the category of "anything" that might happen?
It's not impossible, in a strictly logical sense of the word that has nothing whatsoever to do with practical reality.
April 24, 2008 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
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