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No matter what, intraparty negative campaigning ends in June
I've heard several people say they're afraid that even after June 3rd, Clinton will stay in and continue to campaign negatively. I'll grant that she might stay in, but it will no longer make sense for her to continue her negative campaigning (although some could argue that's already true). By that point, the only people's minds left to change are the unpledged delegates and possibly (but much less likely) the pledged delegates. It's neither fiscally nor politically wise for her to run a negative campaign, at least not out in the open. So, no matter what happens, I predict the worst of the intraparty fighting will be over June 3rd.
For Clinton supporters who might take issue with some of my assumptions above, feel free to replace the word <em>Clinton</em> with <em>Obama</em> where you find it appropriate.
Comments (13)
Gotta love that preview and edit functionality...
April 19, 2008 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
*sigh* Yes, it'd be nice. Or, here's a crazy idea: have the commenting and blogging boxes work the same!
April 19, 2008 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
No! That would be too simple. And next thing you know, some non-elitists might start posting here.
April 19, 2008 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
That avatar is giving me a serious headache. Can we hope that TPM's software and other problems will be history by June? I might be history by then.
April 19, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is this better? (I have sympathy on the headache. Animated gifs can do the same to me.)
April 19, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
If only we could combine your animated gif with Desidero's.
April 19, 2008 7:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obviously, Sen. Clinton is trying to "thread the needle", "walk the tightrope", or whatever metaphor one cares to use to describe achieving a difficult, but hardly impossible feat. Needles DO get threaded.
The tightrope may be a better analogy, since once you fall, you can't get back on. I'm going from memory here, so don't hold me to it, but aren't there about 10 total primaries left, from Pa. on Tuesday thru about June 3td? A Clinton loss on Tues. will end it. Period. She may elect to soldier on, but much of her army will not. Assuming form holds in Pa., we will hit a series of jerks on the rope. Off-hand, she may be able to stand a couple of slips, but not many. She needs to almost (maybe not quite) run the table.
IF (is there something larger than CAPITALIZED? I need it) this all breaks right, and she staggers across (hard, not impossible), then we have a real mean horse race, with no certain outcome.
Broadly speaking, that's the way I see it.
April 19, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even assuming your argument is correct, wouldn't the (public) intraparty campaigning end on June 3rd, regardless? Who's the target audience?
April 19, 2008 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it would be incredibly difficult to fund negative campaigning after June 3rd. Who would pay for it? Her large contributors are maxed out, and she won't be able to convince people to donate to her campaign in order to run negative ads against Barack. So, it would be left to the ALP, and it's doubtful whether these donors would feel comfortable funding their own irrelevancy.
April 19, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
But even if she had the money, who'd she be targeting? Wouldn't it be cheaper (for both) to take their message directly to the delegates?
April 19, 2008 6:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
On or about June 3td, given the unlikely scenario I've described, yes. Essentially, it becomes an internal donnybrook. Obama most likely argues totals, Clinton most likely argues momentum (she would have to HAVE a certain kind of momentum to get to that point). Or, maybe one or the the other decides it's not worth it, and folds. Or maybe they make a deal. Or maybe they turn to a third option. Who knows for sure?
April 19, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, but given that scenario, at least it will be (primarily) internal. I don't see either one going negative (publicly) about the other.
April 19, 2008 9:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm taking my identity back Ben. I enjoyed being you while it lasted.
April 20, 2008 1:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
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