Merlot are you saying that all white people south of the Mason Dixon are racists? Your post doesn't really clarify that view one way or another.

I'm confused. I think I know what people mean by Reagan Democrats, but what are Note Democrats, and how does this help the Clintons?

Frog Leg, I'm so glad you support Obama. I think this illustrates one of the Clinton strategy's weaknesses: she thinks the same Southern Strategy that worked in the 1980s to turn the South from a Democratic to a Republican stronghold will work for her with the 2008 electorate. But Clinton's race-baiting is going to turn off a lot more white voters today than the Reaganites' segregationist dog-whistling did in 1980. For example, today, unlike in 1980, there are probably very few Southern white Democrats who long for the days of segregation.

Southern voters are a lot more ethnically diverse today than they were then, and many Americans (and Southerners) of all backgrounds are much more committed to the ideal and reality of racial equality than were back then. That's part of the reason that today, unlike in 1980, a brilliant African-American politician with an inspiring message of reason and justice is beating an establishment Democrat who has huge name-recognition and is using a shopworn race-baiting strategy.

Scofflaw,

Do you live in the south. I do, and if you also live down here, we are clearly moving in different circles. I live in Savannah, GA, one of the most liberal, progressive cities in the south. And yet even here, there is absolutely no race mixing within the lower and middle class socioeconomic demographics. The small number of affluent blacks tend to hang out with whites and eschew their own, and of course, many rich whites don't hang out with any blacks at all, either. The population is indeed more ethnically diverse in that there are many more Asians and Hispanic now than 30-40 years ago. However, neither of those groups is particularly sympathetic to blacks and certainly don't associate with them socially.

I have two masters degrees, yet I spend about half my time in working class bars. Since blacks don't hang out in the same bars as working class whites, there is nothing to restrain what would would otherwise be considered politically incorrect behavior. Even whites who are otherwise liberal, green, intelligent (though generally not highly educated in this crowd) throw around the n-word in a way that is shocking at times (as I grew up in elite manhattan jewish circles). Believe me, whatever Hillary is doing now is going to increase 10-fold during the GE and it will work. I find it very unlikely that Obama can win any major southern state, if any at all. Right now, he is not even polling close in VA. According to Rasmussen:

Since wrapping up the Republican nomination, John McCain has gained ground on his two potential Democratic challengers in many states. Virginia is no exception. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Virginia voters found McCain ahead of Barack Obama by eleven percentage points, 52% to 41%.

Unfortunately, his association with Wright has pretty much doomed him in the GE, as far as I can tell. Even if he repudiates Wright, it's too late to explain away a 20 year love affair with such a lunatic. It's really too bad. I was kind of warming up to the guy and now we are gonna get Gung-Ho Johnny instead. Not that he wouldn't slaughter Hillary worse, but that's not the point. I guess I hold out some slim hope that Obama's charm will win people over in the GE like he has done in the primaries despite Hillary's strong lead in the early polling. But this time around, they all know him. If they haven't come around yet, I think their minds are made up. (In fact, polls show he has clearly lost support among indies since this debacle came to light.) He certainly hasn't made any headway in IN and PA like he did in other states after he did a lot of advertising and speeches. It's really a shame.