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NBC calls it: Obama wins!
NBC's political director, Chuck Todd, calls the race for pledged delegates "over." In less than three minutes, Todd shows demonstrates why he can now safely call Barack Obama as the winner in the race for the most pledged delegates in the Democratic nomination process. See the video here.
Of course, anyone who reads TPM and who follows this race closely already knew that the pledged delegate count was insurmountable. Todd and others "calling" the pledge delegate race over officially is the same as when they call a state for a candidate based on the numbers that have been reported, even if much of a state has not yet reported in.
Why does this matter: There is one group of people who no longer have to wait for additional information to "vote." If a superdelegate has said that they will support the winner of the pledged delegate count, then we can start counting those people as Obama superdelegates.
As for the argument that the so-called popular vote is more important than the pledged delegate count, I'd say that's a wonderful arguement when you know that your candidate will not win the most pledged delegates. Unfortunately, it also will never be a clean or accurate count. PocketNines at Daily Kos explains the three reasons why the popular vote is a horrible measuring stick in the primary.
So go celebrate you latte flavored kool-aid drinking Obamatrons! The race is effectively over unless Obama pulls a Spitzer (prostitute) or a Hillary (hires Mark Penn).
Now let's talk about McSame...


Comments (114)
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
April 23, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh how I will miss your posts idiotic when the primary is over.
April 23, 2008 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I don't think idiotic will be going away. At least I hope not!
April 23, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent things happen to John McCain every day, and I suspect his excellence will only improve once we go into the general election.
April 23, 2008 2:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why bother with elections?
NBC has picked our president since 2000.
April 23, 2008 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Diebold's going to give then a serious run for their money this time.
April 23, 2008 3:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ain't that the truth
April 23, 2008 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you haven't seen it yet, Diebold already leaked the results.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBrDzZCOQtI
April 23, 2008 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Priceless and depressing. No, I hadn't seen that. Thanks.
I'd be very pleased to see TPM put a focus on the integrity of this upcoming election, particularly in the area of electronic voting.
April 24, 2008 3:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
First shot out of the gate...I Love it!
April 23, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well played my friend, well played.
April 23, 2008 10:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bless you, idiotic.
April 24, 2008 12:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
Idiotic, how appropriate your name is.
We knew this was over a long time ago, this thing was over in March. Hillary is just too devisive, vindictive and diabolic to see the forest past her trees.
April 23, 2008 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
You must be new here.
April 23, 2008 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Someone needs to create a little TPM FAQ for the new people so they know who's being sarcastic, who's being a troll, and who's being a sarcastic troll.
April 23, 2008 1:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
And don't forget to include a note that Ben Hocking is in fact a strange man-baby hybrid named allsburg.
I've been having nightmares about that picture.
April 23, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry...
That was the first time I've ever had to block one of my own creations. :)
And I whole-heartedly apologize for these -
http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm271/PF_Harlock/transition2.gif
http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm271/PF_Harlock/transition3.gif
(I posted them a few days ago to that same thread, but it had already fallen into the abyss.)
April 23, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha!
April 23, 2008 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ahhhhhhhh! Stop that. That is freaky.
April 23, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why did you have to bring that up again? I finally go that nightmare shoved way back in the back of the closet and you had to bring it back out again.
April 23, 2008 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then I'm sure you'll appreciate *this* :) -
http://i298.photobucket.com/albums/mm271/PF_Harlock/tina.jpg
April 23, 2008 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oops. Sorry. Did not intend to misspell your name. I just whipped out a file name when I saved it.
April 23, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was not as scary as Bensburg. But still scary!
April 23, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ben, don't forget those who are sarcastically pretending to be sarcastic trolls ;)
April 24, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sounds like a job for... Ben Hocking!
Or, Allsburg.
April 24, 2008 9:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Howdy, newcomer!
April 23, 2008 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary and Bill have their share of faults, but you have to give some credit to the right wing smear machine for furthering Hillary's divisiveness as a national figure. To overlook that and to lay all the blame on her is to be unprepared for what they will try to do to Obama. Look at what they did to Gore and Kerry and where they were going with Edwards. Indeed, the Republic talking points on Obama are already well on its way--that he is an elitist, latte drinking, Rev. Wright and terrorist loving anti-American surrender monkey.
April 23, 2008 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
"the Republic talking points on Obama are already well on its way--that he is an elitist, latte drinking, Rev. Wright and terrorist loving anti-American surrender monkey."
They were gonna throw all those talking points -- except the Wright smear -- at any Democratic nominee, including Clinton. And everyone (except the kitchen-sinkers) is already tired of Rev. Wright. Come November, it'll be old news.
April 23, 2008 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The sad part is Clinton gave the smears an air of credibility.
Now the republican meme will be "blah blah blah smear - even their own party thinks so. See clip"
April 23, 2008 9:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh and in case you missed it Terry McAuliffe said Fox News was Fair and Balanced on the election coverage last night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJ2nVor0bSI
Hey nothing like giving credibility to the RW smear machine right?
I keep telling everyone but no one believes me. She's not a democrat, she's been converted now. She's a neocon.
Not that far of a stretch really. Look what Michael Moore had to say in Sicko.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J1I_EJrCHU
She might have been a democrat before..but she's gone to the dark side. Even Rove and Melon Scaife are proud of her.
April 23, 2008 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton's people are trying to focus on Popular vote now because they have lost the Pledged Deligates. Just like when she focuses on Primaries because she looses the caucuses. Focuses on the few big states because she looses the many smaller states.
It's really pretty pathetic when you think about it.
April 23, 2008 12:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sort of how Al Gore supporters talked about the popular vote in 2000, when he didn't win the Electoral College vote.
And so it goes.
April 23, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's a little too close to home… :P
April 23, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. The clearly laid out and mutually agreed upon rules were followed in 2000 and the clearly laid out and mutually agreed upon rules must be followed now.
I see a direct parallel between the Bush administration's disregard for the rule of law and agreed upon procedure and the Clinton campaign's desire to do the same.
Haven't we all had enough of that sh@t?
April 23, 2008 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, that, as needs to be said I guess over and over and over - was the fucking general election.
This isn't.
April 23, 2008 5:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
So rules should be followed in a general election, but not in a general election primary?
April 23, 2008 5:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The big difference is that there is a popular vote total in the general election. Some cacus states do not record vote totals for their cacuses and the only way Hillary wins the popular vote is if you count the votes she got in MI while not counting the votes against her. If that were the standard for counting votes then she would win everywhere.
April 24, 2008 9:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, rules, as needs to be said I guess over and over and over - were fucking agreed upon in advance.
April 23, 2008 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again, Yes. Everyone LITERALLY signed off on them.
April 23, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
No you misunderstood me and that's my fault - I made it seem like I was countering you and didn't mean to.
Rules matter more in the primary, actually and yes, they were agreed upon in advance.
I'm with you.
April 23, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I knew *something* was up. I haven't been here relatively long, but I knew the impression I had of your post was way out of character for you.
But on the plus side, the misunderstanding helped to drive in the inescapably of an important argument. :)
April 23, 2008 7:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
The one difference of course being that the popular vote in the GE actually does accurately* indicate voter preference (and therefore truly makes the justification for the electoral college worthy of debate), whereas in a nomination process composed of both primaries and caucuses, the popular vote is an absolutely meaningless figure. Since it weights each state's results according to population, the pledged delegate count is the only thing that gives us a valid indication of voter preference.
The fact that the "popular vote" as a theme keeps getting so much uncritical attention irritates me to no end -- how depressing that analytical thinking has become so rare!
* assuming no manipulative hanky panky
April 24, 2008 3:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Gore's name on the ballot in 2000?
April 24, 2008 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's why Chris Matthews' (God how I detest that man) line of questioning to Terry Mac last night was hilarious. He asked McAuliffe something like, "So what's the scorecard here? What game are we playing? Is it delegates, super delegates, popular vote, big states, what?" He was asking, "Where are you moving the goalposts?" and Terry went along basically saying, "I'll take Popular Vote for $1000, Alex."
April 23, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matthews is a waste of carbon atoms! What an insecure prick.
April 23, 2008 11:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton can claim she wins the whole primary pie due to having won a smaller number of larger pieces, why can't Obama go one further and say he actually won Pennsylvania b/c all she won was a few irrelevant small counties while he carried (overwhelmingly) the really big areas? A little tit for tat.
April 23, 2008 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
So???
April 23, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dick Cheney? You read TPM?
I am honored sir.
April 23, 2008 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Raa ra ra ra echo chamber.
(Anyone else watch Lil' Bush?)
April 23, 2008 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
With another Superdelegate pick up by Obama today, Clinton's SD lead is down to 23 according to http://www.demconwatch.blogspot.com
It's kind of amusing (and sort of sad) that if 24 of the remaining undecided superdelegates would today announce an endorsement for Obama, Clinton would likely drop out within a week.
April 23, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
True. However, I would feel highly disenfranchised by the Democratic party, as an Oregon voter, if it were the Superdelegates who officially ended the campaign.
April 23, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you would feel that way, you have a very poor grasp on what disenfranchisement actually is; educate yourself:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/disenfranchise
April 23, 2008 1:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I do mean disenfranchise. If Clinton dropped out of the race because of the Superdelegates, and not because of citizen voters, then I will not have the privilege to choose between the two candidates. Technically, all of Oregon's votes could be thrown in the trash and not even counted since the nomination would already have been decided.
April 23, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even if the super-delegates were merely canceling each other out? Keep in mind that if we had no super-delegates, it'd already be over.
April 23, 2008 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes - exactly. So the Clinton campaign argument is something like this:
It's important that every vote be counted so that superdelegates know exactly how many people they are ignoring!
April 23, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I support the role that superdelegates are supposed to lead. And in this election, with MI and FL votes not counting, superdelegates will be more important than ever.
Keep in mind that if we had no super-delegates, then the DNC would have needed to create a different nomination benchmark. Worse case scenario would be a candidate receiving 50%+1, which would not be enough to capture the nomination with the established delegate benchmark.
As I alluded in another comment, if there were no super-dels (and the required numbers were fixed to allow a 50%+1 nomination win), and Obama clinched the nomination early on because of pledged delegates, then I would be fine with that (to an extent... I'm a firm believer in grouped rotating primaries, so that straggler states wouldn't have a moot vote).
April 23, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure you will. They won't cancel the primary just because the campaign is effectively over. We just had a Republican primary in Pennsylvania.
April 23, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Republican primary situation is different. McCain won his nomination outright because of citizen voters, and he's already received 50%+1 of his party's delegates.
Without the aid of super-delegates (or, "Unpledged DNC delegates" if you will).
April 23, 2008 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, Huckabee conceded once McCain's total delegates—including RNC unpledged delegates—hit the magic number. It wasn't just pledged delegates.
April 23, 2008 2:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Then, in my opinion, Huckabee shouldn't have dropped out so soon.
April 23, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
He didn't Eric. McCain got his number in winner take all primaries. For all intents and purposes, Huckabee had stopped being a serious contender.
If we had winner take all primaries, guess who our nominee would be?
Guess why we have proportional primaries?
History anyone? 1974?
April 23, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even 1964?
April 23, 2008 10:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, and Ron Paul picked up 15 percent of the vote! Should tell you something about how popular of a candidate McLeany is...
April 23, 2008 3:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am in Oregon as well, and your argument makes no sense. Should we be crying "disenfranchisement" because Edwards dropped out, or Gravel?
Have we Oregonians been disenfranchised in every primary in Modern history because it was already decided long before our state voted?
April 23, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
"citizen voters"?
O puuuuuhhhhhleeeeeze.
This isn't the fucking Continental Congress. This is the contest for the Democratic nomination.
Citizen Voters have their place in it, but they ain't the whole thing by any means, for very good reasons.
April 23, 2008 7:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've yet to vote either (NC) so I'm excited to vote in the primary too, but also understand that it's already over in reality.
I'm assuming you are Clinton supporter. I would just ask - were you equally dismayed back in early January when 165 superdelegates had endorsed Hillary before even one vote had been cast?
It wasn't outrageous then and it shouldn't be outrageous now when 95% of all the votes have been cast.
That said, I feel your desire to have your vote counted. I imagine you'll get your chance just as I will on May 6th.
April 23, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am not a Hillary supporter, I am not a Barack supporter.
And yes, I was highly disappointed when superdelegates started publicly making their choices known. They should be used as a backup, and not as a means of advancing one candidate over another. In other words, I feel the Superdelegates should keep silent until after all primaries and caucuses are finalized (that includes Bill Clinton).
April 23, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Clarification... I'm not a Clinton supporter, nor an Obama supporter. I was an Edwards supporter, and will vote for Obama if the nomination isn't already settled by the time Oregon votes.
April 23, 2008 2:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the primary, you nitwit.
Grow up - this isn't 1776.
This is political process and not a governmental function.
let me be clear - being a citizen doesn't buy you anything in this primary but a chance to vote. And your vote gets the weight the Democratic Party - you get me? - says it has and not a bit more.
This is a private party, dude.
April 23, 2008 7:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ditto. It is a "party" not a government. The rules could be entirely arbitrary, essentially without recourse to amend them. Here-- I am going to found the Karate And Snowcone Party. I nominate myself for President, and only my dog is allowed to vote. (By the way, my dog voted for Obama, but guess what-- I overturned his vote with my doubly powerful Super Vote, worth seven votes to his single dog-vote.) It's my party.
April 23, 2008 11:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Be nice Tena. Eric here is a long time TPMer and gave us a lifeboat site to hang around at while TPM was working on its site problems. On his own time by the way. He is looking for a meaningful discussion. Please save the more unpleasant comments for the trolls.
April 24, 2008 12:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm in Oregon and I don't give a damn. I want this circus over - yesterday.
April 23, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll clarify, too. I would say exactly the same thing in the candidates' positions were reversed.
The thing is, if it were reversed, I doubt I'd need to say anything. It's hard for me to imagine that Barack Obama wouldn't have already gracefully left the race.
April 23, 2008 3:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
*if* the candidates', obviously.
C'mon TPM folks. I *need* that edit feature! :)
April 23, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good point.
April 23, 2008 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Eric,
The normal thing is for candidates to drop out when it's clear they'll lose.
It's why Biden and Dodd and Richardson and Kucinich and Edwards aren't in the race any more.
It's why Giuliani and Romney are gone, too.
You and I will still get to vote May 20. If Senator Clinton drops out before that, we just cast our votes already knowing the nominee. We shape who goes to the convention, chooses the VP, and sets the platform.
Let me correct that. Whatever Senator Clinton does, those of us who vote May 20 will know the nominee. Today he needs only 136 --33%-- of the remaining 409 pledged delegates. By dawn on May 7, he'll need fewer than 40--17 or 18%. He can get that with 25% in WV, 25% in KY, and 40% in Oregon. And when he gets pledged, the delegates tumble like dominoes.
Chuck Todd called it right, and it's time to get to work on winning in November.
April 24, 2008 12:01 AM | Reply | Permalink
Chuck Todd for Fat Lady!
Who'd a thunk it? He's started the singing for us!
April 23, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's true you don't want supers to throw their weight around too much, but until the superdelegate count is the same for each candidate, I'd say it's a no-brainer to announce support for Obama if that is their intention.
Even superdelegate counts would highlight the difference in the "real" delegates and no one could say the supers were deciding the race any more for Obama than they already have for HRC.
That's how I see it, anyway.
April 23, 2008 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is today the day the music died?
♫♪♫♪♫♪♪♪…
April 23, 2008 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, where'd you get them notes? Is Ben going all elitist on us?
April 23, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, there are two ways of doing it. You can either use the html character code for it: ♫=♫ and ♪=♪, or you can just copy & paste it from somewhere else.
With similar skillz, you can almost make a half-way decent chart even on TPM:
╒═╦═╕
│1║0│
╞═╬═╡
│0║1│
╘═╩═╛
April 23, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
#$@% non-proportional font. That chart actually looked pretty good in my comment window. Copy & paste it down there to see what I mean.
April 23, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Need to change your name to: Ben Hacking
April 23, 2008 7:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stop showing off!
(unless you will have a tutorial for the rest of us)
April 23, 2008 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoa! You just blowed my mind.
April 24, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Drove my chevy to the levy, and the levy was being sandbagged by Hillary's mavens....they were sweating a lot.
April 23, 2008 9:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I find it strange that all the republicans in the remaining and last several primaries are supposedly disenfranchised but I have not heard a whine or wimper about it from them. In fact they seem to take glee in seeing Hillary try to destroy Obama. The basic facts are that Obama cannot lose the delegate race unless they find him in bed with a live boy or dead girl. And, guess what, the delegate count is what counts. What is happening is that people are pretending that Hillary still has a chance of wining so people can pretend that the remaining contests are relevant. Hillary and her supporters are living in a fantasy world. A fantasy world that exists for the sole single purpose of helping republicans.
April 23, 2008 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Get rid of all superdelegates.
They serve no real purpose except to thwart the will of the primary process.
1. Delegates vote for the nominee, so there is no reason why a candidate achieving 50% + 1 of the elected delegates shouldn't win.
2. If multiple candidates prevent 50% + 1, then settle it at the convention. To avoid the notion of a fix (Edwards swinging his vote to Clinton in return for Elizabeth getting a cabinet position), then let all the major elected Democrats be added as delegates. Current governors, senators, and representatives only -- those accountable for their votes.
3. The Democratic Party is just a convenient focal point for those people who consider themselves Democrats. There's no reason for party officials usurping what should be the people's choice.
4. If the winning candidate is discovered to be a gay atheistic bigamist before the convention, then the elected delegates should be free to vote for whomever.
April 23, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hey, I'm a gay atheistic bigamist, and I vote.
April 23, 2008 3:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Until gays have the right to marry, you can't really be a gay bigamist, can you?
April 23, 2008 3:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nothing empties a room like talking about bigamy!
April 23, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sure you can. Gay men and lesbians are allowed to marry, as long as it's not to the person they're in love with. Maybe Under_a_Bus is committing adultery to its different-sex spouses with its same-sex lover(s). These atheists have no moral compass, you know ;)
April 23, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I stand corrected. It seems so obvious in hindsight.
April 23, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
New Hampshire? I thought they could marry in New Hampshire? Or maybe in Alabama. Or West Virginia. I'm sure there is some state that you can get married if you happend to be in love with someone a republian doesn't agree with. (boys excluded) no. That is not marriage. That is only in bathrooms. Let's hear it for FAMILY VALUES! (and sincerity, of course!)
April 23, 2008 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
You must be thinking of Spain!
April 23, 2008 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
You can marry your sister in Arkansas. That's not quite the same though is it?
April 23, 2008 11:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Fiddling around with Slate, I come up with Obama finishing with ~1700 delegates. Needing 300+ SDs to push him over. That seems high to me.
April 23, 2008 9:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have to remember that he already has 233: http://www.demconwatch.blogspot.com/
So really, he would need 67 SDs in your scenario.
April 24, 2008 9:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
New numbers from Chuck Todd as MSNBC as of 6:15 tonight. Let's have some fun shall we?
The Pennsylvania pledged count (updated 4/23, 6:15 pm): Clinton 82-73 (three delegates still to be allocated.)
There are 408 delegates up for grabs in the remaining nine contests.
And a new addition, some "fun" with POPULAR VOTE numbers...
Without MI/FL:
Obama: 14,447,566
Clinton: 13,965,192
With FL, but NOT MI:
Obama: 15,016,607
Clinton: 14,822,400
With MI/FL, including "uncommitted" for Obama:
Obama: 15,254,369
Clinton: 15,150,551
With MI/FL, giving Obama 0 in MI and Clinton 328,000-plus (the only metric which gives her a lead):
Clinton: 15,150,551
Obama: 15,016,607
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/23/939826.aspx
HEY TEAM HILLARY
It's going be hard to claim the popular vote now isn't it? I am sure you'll find another way to spin it. Don't you guys get dizzy?
April 23, 2008 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
NINE delegates?! Jeez.
April