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Media Framing: When will Texas win be reported as a win?
Everywhere you look major media outlets are somehow not counting Caucus victories for Obama... particularly in Texas.
For example:, this article by Shailagh Murray and Paul Kane http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/
QUOTE
Clinton supporters say the slow pace of commitments is because of concerns, after Obama's March 4 losses in TexasSen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), a Clinton backer.
and Ohio, about whether he can win in November -- doubts they have
aggressively sought to stir in their private lobbying efforts. "If you can't win it in the primary, how are you going to win it in November? That's our pitch," said
UNQUOTE
Is the Obama campaign strategically deciding not to contest this framing for some reason, such as to avoid seeming petty?
Are the media embarrassed to admit they called Texas too soon? (And is it the editors of the Post, or these particular reporters... or some kind of institutional embarrassment that holds that the paper cannot admit error once a story is committed to print?)
Do Washington Post reporters actually have a pro-Clinton agenda? (And why would they? I mean seriously, can't they do the delegate count and reach the obvious conclusion about where there bread will be buttered in the future? (... by either Obama or McCain... and probably not by Clinton.)
Or do they have a McCain agenda that leads them to have a pro-Clinton agenda?
Or are they simply careless with fact checking? I mean anyone can go look up a delegate counter and find out what the actual count is:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/
Anyone, including Post reporters can look up the total vote count too: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
I realize that the quote above about Texas is just a direct reflection of Clinton camp framing, but wouldn't responsible reporting point out that the claim of a Texas victory is open to dispute?
Why don't Obama campaign people point this out to reporters?
(To answer my own question, maybe they think it doesn't matter... only delegates matter... and let the world think what they want about Texas. Maybe.)
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Media framing question 2
Where do people get the idea that the nomination race between 2 Democrats tells you much about how a Democrat will perform against a Republican?
Most Obama voters will vote for Clinton and most Clinton voters will vote for Obama... if the alternative is McCain.
Obama's inability to defeat Clinton in those (in Sirota's terms) middle states with an AA population between 6% and 17% says nothing about his ability to win those states when he is running not against a good democrat like Clinton, but instead against an evil war mongering Republican like John McCain.
Unfortunately the reverse is not exactly true... insofar as Clinton's ability to win in red states is much more in doubt. But even there, the efforts Obama and Dean have made in some nontraditional states that Obama has won in the primaries could well lead to some surprising Clinton victories.
No, the purpose of these primaries is to assess the preferences of Democrats and the outcomes of those assessments say little about the likely strength of the candidates against Republicans.
The strengths of the candidates against Republicans have a little to do with policy and a great deal with personality. When you listen to each of these people, how do you feel about them in comparison to how you feel about that old guy... John McCain.
I think when you line up the personalities of Obama or Clinton, you can see one potential victory... and one potential defeat. It has nothing to do with primary victories... everything to do with how personalities play as observed on the TV screens of America. I give the Hawaiian the advantage in that subtle contest.
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Comments (7)
The Texas Two-Step has always been hard for the media to report, possibly because the caucus vote isn't known until after the headlines or maybe because one's a primary and the other is a caucus, or maybe they're just being racist,
I don't know and I know how everyone hates for folks to say stuff like it, but Jesse Jackson "lost" the Texas primary and from that portion, he came up one delegate short of Dukakis' "win". While he handily won the caucus portion of the contest and eventually came out of the state winning more overall delegates, but there's still disagreement (among people of all ethnicities), whether Texas should count as a Jackson win.
April 6, 2008 9:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for posting on this. As I noted on another thread (with regard to spin vs. fact), MSM web sites are still showing Texas as a win for Clinton. ABC lists only the primary results, showing a Clinton win, another (i think CNN) lists primary and caucus results separately, calling one for Clinton and the other for Obama and not listing the combined state total, which would show a win for Obama. The Clinton (and MSM) spin of a win in Texas should be corrected well before the Pennsylvania primary. Obama won the delegate count in Texas, which is the metric chosen by the Democratic Party to denote state victories. It's past time for the "Big Maps" to reflect this win for Obama.
April 6, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's got to be racism. Or that lying B*tch or something, right? Or maybe, just maybe, it's because he didn't "win" Texas. You see even the Obama camp wasn't claiming that delegate count was the main factor for leader or wins until after Nevada or so. It's not the way the primary is uusually viewed, but the media has pretty much gone along with the spin that he with the most dels win. But that won't hold until through the convention.
I would bet that Obama campaign doesn't raise the issue because it might lead some to question how he can be called the winner of Texas when she got 100G more votes. This might even lead some intrepid reporters to start asking how 95% of Obama's delegate lead comes from caucus wins that did not reflect the popular vote in those state.
Yes, buckaroos, in popular vote, the race is virtually tied at this point. And if Clinton does well in the last leg of primaries, she will probably lead in popular vote, especially considering FLA/MI. St that point, if the super-delegates are tasked with following the "will of the people," she must be nominated (or there will be riots in the streets). Or maybe not. I'm just sayin'.
April 6, 2008 10:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
I never suggested racism or lying. I look forward to voting for Clinton in the (unlikely) event that she is the nominee. I do of course prefer Obama.
In the meantime there is a puzzling discrepancy between election results and election reporting.
The Obama camp wasn't claiming that delegates were the "main factor" until Nevada? Do you have any evidence of that?
Who created this myth that the Democratic nominee was selected by "popular vote"? And why is the media perpetuating it?
Answer: People who benefit from the myth create it and sustain it. And as to why the media perpetuates it... see my various questions in the original post.
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Then you turn to the old nonsense... "the will of the people." So I suppose the Senate of the U.S. which fails to proportionately represent the populations of various states is not a institution of democracy? You can argue that it ought not to be, but you can hardly argue that it is not. Democratic systems use multiple mechanisms to determine the will of the people, and caucuses, primaries and the opinions of elected officials are all part of that process. There is no a priori reason for super delegates to prefer the will of the people expressed through at large elections by Democrats, Independents and sometimes even Republicans... over the will of the people expressed by caucus participants... over the will of the people expressed by a combination of those mechanisms.
There is certainly no reason for the media to prefer only 1 of those democratic mechanisms over others... unless they are ignorant or consciously pushing an agenda of one campaign over the other.
All in all I suspect laziness and ignorance ... but I'm open to conspiracy theories as well.
April 6, 2008 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
...and I see my link to the Washington Post article is screwed up... (completely wrong)... and I can no longer locate the article at the Post web site. But you will believe me when I say I didn't make up the quote.
April 6, 2008 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the MSM has a clear pro-Clinton agenda. They love the drama of the Clintons. They are a walking scandal machine.
April 6, 2008 11:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was a reply to Magister who was joking (I think) as was I. I would have to find the article that detailed the media record of slowly picking up the concept pushed by Axelrod that delegate count was THE measure of the race. I referred to "will of the people" as the idea put forward by Obama supporters here and elsewhere ad nauseum that overruling the people by nominating the candidate with the lower PD count amopunts to a "coup." I totally agree with you that people who benefit from a myth, create and sustain it. The SDs are party people who'll decide their votes individually but popular and electability vote will probably be two of the most persuasive factors.
April 7, 2008 1:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
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