Reader Posts
« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Margins of Victory (corrected)
We have already seen what I suspect will only be the first of several sets of wild speculations from early, unverified, unweighted exit polls. To save ourselves from a fresh round of "what if" questions every time a new one comes out/gets updated, I propose my own scale. Now we can just refer to this scale, and carry on thinking about more important matters while we wait for the real results to come in. I, for one, am spending this evening reading the short stories of Mary Shelley. Anyway, on to the scale:
Obama 52 - Clinton 48: Clinton is dead. She's out of this tonight.
O51 - C49: Clinton is dead. She's out by tomorrow.
O50-C50 (too close to call) - Clinton will drag this out until we have final results, and then be pressurized to drop out.
C51-O49: Clinton will have a great time tonight, but she'll drop out by Friday
C52-O48: Clinton will call a win a win, but there's a strong chance she'll be gone before May 6th
C53-O47: Clinton will celebrate a decent margin, and take this to May 6th. If Obama wins both states there, it's over. If they split NC and IN, it carries on.
C54-O46: This is definitely going to May 6th, and Obama must win big margins in IN and NC to stop it all there.
C55-O-45: That's it - the big double digit win that Clinton wants. It goes to May 6, and we're going to start hearing a lot more about Florida and Michigan again.
C56-O-44: Clinton is in this game all the way until early June for sure. Sorry guys, but the show's not over yet.
Feel free to propose alternatives.
Comments (10)
One day I will learn how to use a computer properly. I'm guessing that day isn't today.
April 22, 2008 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very nice scale.
April 22, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would amend it to:
ANY O victory or C win by less than 4: HIllary tries to gloss over the result, but a $10 million campaign deficit and donations that would start drying up - would mean a slow shift in the rhetoric and more and more mention of potential VP slot or a softening of campaign rhetoric and a pull-out from the race after Obama wins C big and I ends a near-draw.
April 22, 2008 6:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary will stay in no matter what but other than that, I agree with everything you said:)
I'm bothered by misleading narratives coming out of PA though.
A 15pt win for Hillary doesn't change the reality that her only path to the nomination is to overturn Obama's well-earned higher delegate count at the convention.
Do voters realize this?
April 22, 2008 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
...these would be the same voters who think that an extended nomination fight, and a nominee chosen at convention would be good for the party? Who ARE these Democrats? Who are they polling, Joe Lieberman's kitchen?
April 22, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
There aren't enough political junkies in the States who really pay attention and understand all the spinning, I think.
April 22, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Do you have a concern that you could win the nomination at the Convention and defeat John McCain in the general and, you know, go to the inauguration and Hillary would still be running?"
April 22, 2008 7:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
It reminds me of the final scene in "A Fish Called Wanda" where Kevin Kline is shown through the airplane window clinging to the plane at takeoff.
April 22, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would say anything under 57-43 for Clinton, together with a double-digit Obama win in NC, and a less than double-digit Hillary win in Indiana and the "superdelegates to Obama" move we've all been waiting for occurs. She may stay "in" but she's done.
April 22, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
When Obama wins pledged, he wins.
The remaining super-delegates will tumble almost instantly to give him the 2,024 to take the nomination.
And then stacks of Clinton's super-delegates, being party people, will pile on to give him 2,208--so he can say it's fine with him to seat Michigan and Florida.
To me, that says the question is how fast he can close in on pledged.
This morning, he needed 210 of 566 remaining.
If he gets 44% of Pennsylvania pledged, he'll need 140 of 408.
Through May 6, If he gets 48% in Guam and Indiana and 54% in North Carolina, he'll need 42 of 217 remaining.
If he has to press on to May 20, he can lock pledged up with 30% from West Virginia and Kentucky and 51% in Oregon.
Each of those Obama percentages is lower than I think will really happen.
So, once again, I think that that by May 6, everyone will know that it's inevitable, and the heavyweights, the donors, and the super-delegates will move May 7 to put it to an end.
April 22, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment