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leaked sheet revisited
As an exercise i just looked back at the 2/6 leaked obama speadsheet.
contest, total delegates, projected obama delegates, actual obama result minus projected
LA 56, 31, +3
NE 24, 15, +1
VI 3, 2, +1
WA 78, 49, +4
ME 24, 10, +5
DC 15, 9,+3
MD 70, 37,+5
VA 83, 43,+11
HI 20, 11,+3
WI 74, 40,+2
OH 141, 68,-1
RI 21, 8,+0
TX 193, 92,+7
VT 15, 9,+0
WY 12, 7,+0
MS 33, 20,+0
PN 158, 75,-1
IN 72, 39
NC 115, 61
WV 28, 13
KY 51, 23
OR 52, 28
MT 16, 9
SD 15, 8
PR 55,25
thoughts:
1. the estimates have been very good.
2. the estimates give a 67 delegate win to obama and he has out performed them.
3. It looks to me like the nomination was won in the potomac primaries.
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Comments (9)
knowing where the voters are is a science. so you go after the ones that are best for you.
i would like to see something like scramble the districts game..feed info into a comp and let it randomly create voting districts and force these career and district safe bums to earn their victory.
April 24, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
There's an idea whose time has come.
April 24, 2008 1:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shows how brilliant and sewed up this has been. Shillary probably reads that and cries every night.
April 24, 2008 2:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
i wonder how much of the deviation from expected could be contributed to external forces like weather?
April 24, 2008 2:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
David Axelrod is a rock star strategist.
April 24, 2008 2:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
They predict a solid win in IN and NC. That means that Clinton's momentum will hit a brick wall, a wave of supers will pledge, and the pressure for her to get out will be unbearable.
April 24, 2008 2:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the follow-up I remember the discussion around this a couple weeks ago. I have to admit, pretty amazing. Kind of funny but isn't this spreadsheet better than the SurveyUSA average?
April 24, 2008 2:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
PN=PA?
April 24, 2008 8:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
If he makes these numbers he needs 95 more Supers.
Yesterday's announcement that they were 300 votes away; this predicts 100 more pledged delegates on May 6th; this than predict 105 additional delegates from the last 7 contests. That leaves 95 supers that need to endorse Obama for him to go over the top, which is well under a third of the total outstanding.
April 24, 2008 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
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