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Kondracke: Obama Wins ‘Petraeus Primary’
Morton Kondracke's column in today's Roll Call commends Barack Obama for "his agile performance" in recent congressional hearings on Iraq. I believe it's subscription only so I provide generous excerpts:
"Of the three presidential candidates displaying their intellectual wares in questioning Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker, Obama surely was the most subtle and shrewd....Obviously Obama gives away his status as a neo-phyte on these issues by showing actual independent thinking. This mindset shows that he just does not have enough experience to grasp the nuances of complicated geopolitical issues required to fight the "war" on terror - like which groups are sunni and which are shiite or whether snipers are indeed firing or not.
By contrast, Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) basically delivered dueling campaign speeches over which was more “irresponsible” — too-hasty troop withdrawals or continuing present policy.
But it was Obama who took most advantage of the televised hearings to render a nuanced — even silken — performance.
In a statement rare among Democrats, he declared “we all have the greatest interest seeing a successful resolution to Iraq.” The party line is that Iraq is a “quagmire” or (Clinton’s words) a “failed policy.”
Obama acknowledged that “the surge has reduced violence and created breathing room,” although he did not take the opportunity to admit that he was wrong last year to predict that the surge would fail and to vote to cut off funds for U.S. troops.
Obama didn’t, to his credit, say that no political progress had been achieved using the surge’s “breathing room.” He just said it “has not been taken the way we all would like it.”
The most interesting part of Obama’s performance, though, was his laying down of what constitutes “success” or “a manageable situation” in Iraq.
His standard seems to be “a messy, sloppy status quo but (where) there’s not, you know, huge outbreaks of violence, there’s still corruption, but the country is struggling along, but it’s not a threat to its neighbors and it’s not an al-Qaida base.”
This sets a good foundation for debates with McCain on Iraq - challenge him to define success. If McCain's definition is little different then Obama's it becomes harder for him to pursue the pavlovian "Retreat and Defeat" line - it's a difference of opinion on the effect of withdrawal. However, McCain would probably just lose his temper and reveal that he actually prefers the 10,000 year occupation to either the 1,000 or 100 year options and would like to be cryogenically frozen and reawakened every few hundred years to have a check on things and show his experience off by having a relaxing stroll under sniper fire.













Comments (37)
Obama opposed the war from the beginning, but once our troops were in Iraq, he supported the best outcome.
Hillary voted for the war but turned sour on it once it failed and became unpopular.
April 10, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those who missed it.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/187965.php
April 10, 2008 3:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
McCain hasn't thought through the various things he's said about Iraq. He will be in trouble if he is ever pinned down by sniper fire from reporters or from his debating opponent.
As many have pointed out, he says that we need to stay in Iraq until we achieve success, where success may mean no Americans getting killed (among other things). The consequence is that we cannot leave Iraq until success, and the implication is that we can leave Iraq if (among other things) no Americans are getting killed.
Yet he says we can stay in Iraq seemingly indefinitely as long as no Americans are getting killed. WTF. Which is it?
Leaving Iraq after success or staying in Iraq because of success?
April 10, 2008 12:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's the old "Heads I win, Tails you lose" strategy.
We can't leave the chaos, or there will be chaos. We must stay until it is quiet so that we can be there when it is quiet. And John McCain committing to 100 years in Iraq?!?!?! Please. What are the odds he lives another 100 years?
April 10, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, (Help me Jesus!) not that bad--have you checked out mom? If I were 100, I'd fuck her--hell, probably if I were 90.
That said, and with better and better embalming, he might make it fine, physically, anyway.
The dementia thing, ehhh, not so much...
April 11, 2008 5:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
McCain is running to be the replacement spokes-puppet for the GOP. He doesn't need to know anything, and like Bush, will only perform the role of figurehead for the puppetmasters behind the curtain.
Hillary appears to be running primarily on hubris and the desire to make history as the first woman to win the presidency.
Obama is running because he wants to make the world a better place for everyone.
April 10, 2008 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think clinton wants to make America better and feels she is the best person for the job. I simply disagree with her self evaluation. There is no need to assume bad intent. She is wrong not evil.
April 10, 2008 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree with your assertion that Hillary has good intentions. What gets people mad is the stuff she's willing to do so she can get the power to do good things. Evil? No. A political style that's been bad for the country? Yes.
She's so eager to achieve her Democratic policy objectives that she's willing to use tactics that alienate a large portion of the Democratic Party in the process.
April 10, 2008 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly! The best and fairest summary of the situation I've read. Kudos.
April 10, 2008 9:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree wholeheartedly.
April 10, 2008 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm just glad someone else saw the beauty of his logical maneuvers at the hearing. It also, in my mind, made him look the most "presidential" of the candidates by asking questions that drove to the real gist of the topic.
He'll be excellent in cabinet meetings.
April 10, 2008 1:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
The longer I've been thinking and reading about the war in Iraq, I'm not so sure pulling the troops out right away is such a good idea anymore. I'm afraid of McCain because I think he'll have no qualms about starting another war with Iran but if either of the democrats actually do fulfill their campaign promises, I expect the entire region to implode. What to do?
April 10, 2008 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
America in Iraq, In A Nutshell:
If things get worse in Iraq we can not withdraw until things get much better.
If things get much better, we can not withdraw because Iraq may slide back into chaos.
Ah!, don't you see what has happened, Lads, and Lassies?
The Chicken Hawk Neo Cons have constructed a perfect Catch22 for the USA in Iraq.
We can never leave. It is the McCain Doctrine.
How do we construct an Uncatch22 in Iraq.
Why of course, there is only one solution; since we can never leave, we might as well let it into the Union.
You can thank me later, after you have bought all your new flags with all those extra stars for the Sunni, Kurd and Shiite states.
Next problem please.
April 10, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do watch the video. The brilliance in Obama's questioning is that he is the first to cut through this.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/187965.php
April 10, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe I'm agreeing with Kondracke. But that is what I saw in the hearings. When I saw that the idiot pundits missed how intelligent it was, if I ever doubted the stupidity of the pundit class, I certainly no longer do.
Hillary and McCain postured. I've decided that they are incapable -- both of them -- of the deep thinking required of a president. They may both be intelligent enough, but they don't have the depth. At all. Ever.
Obama didn't get the credit he deserved for that performance at the hearings. But he laid a groundwork for future debates, framing of the issue. It was brilliant. He was thinking like a president. The other two think like candidates. And always will. That's all they got.
Me and Kondracke in agreement. Wow......
April 10, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary was reading from a prepared script. Watch the video. She did not express a single spontaneous thought. In fact she often had to look down to her script in mid sentence. McCain did pretty much the same thing. Only Senator Obama was able to question the General and Ambassador, and express his own thoughts without having to work read from a script.
April 10, 2008 4:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
HRC has never had an independent, spontaneous thought... nor will she every have one
April 11, 2008 5:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Huh?
I hope you are going for sarcasm there, yes?
April 10, 2008 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Although I understand it's not always easy to tell, the first and last sentences (or clauses) are pretty telling markers that this is sarcasm.
April 11, 2008 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
that harvard education and his teaching skills were definitely at play. obama efficiently laid the groundwork for his rebuttal to mccain's wars stance. it was brilliant!
hrc delivered a speech and well mccain? no comment.
April 10, 2008 4:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was struck that Obama was doing what an executive would do: "I'm going to be making decisions on this, so it's time to start drilling down on the details on which those decisions must be made." If the buck stops with you, you've got to get to your bottom line.
The other two were speechifying.
April 10, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
"When I saw that the idiot pundits missed how intelligent it was, if I ever doubted the stupidity of the pundit class, I certainly no longer do. "
The pundits really are stupider than we all thought. They have the emotional and intellectual level of a junior high student. Perhaps I'm being too generous.
Obama's problem is that he is probably too smart and it goes over their head. Clinton and McCain talk on the crass, simpleminded level that the punditocracy can relate to. They get it.
April 10, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
It really is about nuance with Obama. I don't know if it's not that Clinton/McCain don't think like that, but they just never seem to make broadly well-thought-through innovative thoughts that are striking enough to make me think that they're actually able to either suggest or even enable those around them to make innovative solutions.
Simple example is the point Obama makes about Maliki and Iran. Basically, if we're ok with Maliki and Maliki is encouraging Iranian participation, doesn't that then mean that we should engage Iran to SOME degree in the discussion of how to move forward? I just think it's such a logical point -- and there really is so little logic in the public debate lately.
April 10, 2008 9:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just watched the Obama videos; had missed his testimony.
I think we're all in awe of Obama because of something that really shouldn't be considered all that remarkable. It's just that it's been absent from our government lo these many years, and we rarely see it done so well.
Obama was trying to focus his intelligence and that of Crocker, Petraeus and committee members on a pragmatic search based on hard facts for a specific attainable solution. Obama didn't ask "gotcha" questions. He didn't spout talking points. He talked about the problems we actually face in Iraq, not some latter-day crusade against evil.
It was nice that he didn't beat up Petraeus and Crocker for trying to implement Bush's policies. That's their job; setting the policies is Bush's job. You can envision Obama taking advantage of what these two men have actually learned on the scene even though they learned it working for Bush.
It's also notable that Obama referenced the previous contributions to the discussion made by others on the committee. It was as though Obama was working, not performing. There was no grandstanding, no claim to having a quick fix from his own brilliant mind. What Obama conveyed to the group was, "We're all in this together, and together we can figure out the best way to deal with it from this point forward."
In short, Obama gave us a glimpse of his approach to problem-solving in action. You can actually solve problems that way. Works much better than deriving solutions with ideological formulas like the Soviets of old or Bush and Cheney now. That's because you work out the solution before you decide what to do. Big difference from starting with the Decisions of the Decider, resplendent in their moral clarity, and quickly finding them at odds with reality. No cult of personality here.
April 10, 2008 10:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama's questioning was classic triangulation and a bit clumsy, not "silken." And Mort Kondrake of all people is held up as the pundit who "gets" the magical super-intelligence behind Obama's acquiescent prompts? Sorry, there were no veiled Machiavellian grandmaster gambits here. Simple groundwork for the anti-war candidate defining our future evil enemies and admitting that we won’t be able to bring home all of the troops any time soon.
April 10, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I noticed from the first time I heard Senator Obama speak that he is at a level of development where he truly has the capacity to hold paradoxes... hold all of the realities.. and use them to bring solutions or new ideas to the surface or to work with others to do this same thing... he does not have to get distracted in on paradox such as our need for security over another such as our desire for liberty... He can hold them both and let the tensions lead to the solutions..
Problems cannot be solved on the same level that they are created... or often they cannot be solved by he same people that created them for this very reason... their thinking has not evolved enough to transcend and include the problem...
We are truly fortunate that someone like Senator Obama has arrived on the scene willing to lead this country with all of the challenges we are facing...
I really hope that the people of Pennsylvania, Indiana, and North Carolina push his nomination forward so that we can focus on winning the general election and what we are going to have to do to move our economy in a realistic and healthier direction...
April 11, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
More precisely, he was thinking like a law professor. As a lawyer, he is trained in finding the nuances that are invisible to non-lawyers, and as a law professor, his strength lies in exploring the nuances through indirect questioning and subtlety and guiding the person he is questioning to cut through the crap to the essence of the problem. And as a law professor who only recently went into politics, he hasn't lost that ability in the fog of politics. True legal thinking is anathema to politicians because the assumption is that the public is too stupid to understand anything but black and white in large type.
To a political pundit, it is incomprehensible. To a lawyer, it is art. I wish I were nearly as good as he is.
April 11, 2008 12:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I had the sense when I was watching Sen. Obama at the hearing that this is how a President works: He questions, he probes, he listens to the answers, he adjusts his next questions according to the answers received, etc. etc. It was at once fascinating and reassuring: This is how he'll work. And you know what? I trust this guy.
April 11, 2008 12:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kondracke is wrong on that. Seemed to me Obama was trying to get an answer from Patreus about what metrics they were using to judge Iraq and couldn't get a straight answer so he started throwing stuff out there. He asked if Iraqi forces could sustain what's going on now would that be enough. I don't remember Patreus answering.
April 11, 2008 5:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
At the risk of repeating myself,
OBAMA! BECAUSE BRAINS MATTER
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/03/obama-because-brains-matter.php
April 11, 2008 6:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
>
But who said there WERE such gambits? What draws so many of us to Obama is that he shows one can be brilliant *without* being Machiavellian; that transparency can and should be more powerful in a democracy than a veil; and that this is not necessarily a game--it's a job. This is not to say he is incapable of gambits against other grandmasters. It is to say that he can, he knows he can, and he has moved beyond that.
It's kind of like how true strength is the ability to say "I am so certain of myself, I need not posture about it."
Now whether enough Americans are capable of recognizing such strengths or moving beyond game playing is another matter. But seriously--who wants a democracy run by a Machiavelli?
Not me.
April 11, 2008 6:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
I should have explained that, but both here and on the original post looking at Obama’s questions, many commenters were saying that there was some clever hidden agenda. He “embedded the 'answer' to ending the Iraq quagmire” by planting seeds in people’s minds that will grow into new thinking about Iraq. He was making “grandmaster chess moves” and brilliantly skewering Petraeus and Crocker. This and his race speech are “historic moments” showing his deep intelligence and the “beauty of his logical maneuvers.” The hearings are read as another showdown between the candidates, a chance to show their CiC/FP, stuff, though I think they are pretty much meaningless. I agree with you that Obama was being straightforward here and if so, is triangulating his position.
Objectively, Clinton performed pretty well because she was challenging the Petraeus Show whereas Obama was fairly pedestrian and agreeable. The gist of his questioning was, ‘If 30,000 or so troops can maintain the status quo, can we call that success and call it a day?’ Clinton was the one speaking of the cuff as when she asked about the meeting to “resource” Basra (based on Levin’s earlier question). She also reasserted the right of Congress to ratify treaties and promoted her bill to do that with the SOFA on long-term military occupation of Iraq. These are important points. Obama was not bad but did nothing ground shaking or clever. He simply drilled asked Crocker and the General what would constitute success and to define the major “enemies” we face (al Qaeda still and Iranian-supported factions, meaning Sadr, et al. with the insurgents now our allies). I think one of Petraeus’ tasks was to get this new definition of the enemy we’re fighting, especially Iran’s connection, to take. What would have been brilliant is to get into the record the fact that al Qaeda and the Madhi Army are fighting the occupation. Our presence perpetuates the war.
The next President will set the agenda. While a fig leaf of victory will be applied to withdrawal, it doesn't have to be compromised out. Either the General is running policy and Obama’s queries are trying to pin him down, or Obama intends to accept Bush’s characterization of the war and is squeezing some small concessions to whittle the war into a low-grade occupation, or Obama wants to create his own frame to allow him to leave a large reserve force there indefinitely. Politically, there is no reason for either Obama or Clinton to let the Bush administration straitjacket the policy of the war. In spite of five years of a cheerleading media and misleading administration, 60 to 70% of Americans recognize that Iraq is FUBAR and favor a timely withdrawal. Of course, it has to be done with care and resourcefulness, but it doesn’t have to be negotiated with field generals or the beltway establishment.
April 11, 2008 1:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama didn’t, to his credit, say that no political progress had been achieved using the surge’s “breathing room.” He just said it “has not been taken the way we all would like it.”
David Brooks, Tuesday:
"At this week’s hearings on Capitol Hill, Democrats will declare that the surge has not produced political progress and therefore the whole thing is for naught. That’s wrong. There has been political progress. It just doesn’t look the way we expected it to."
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/opinion/08brooks.html
The cynical me could say this is all politics, that Obama is trying to triangulate on Iraq (with a view to a head-to-head with McCain).
The perhaps naive me, who does not see Obama as a typically cynical politician, thinks Obama is expressing what he in fact believes.
But this difference may be irrelevant. Paul Krugman has on several occasions criticized Obama for attacking the other candidates "from the right", especially on healthcare policy. Because, Krugman believes, that by doing so Obama would weaken his ability as President to implement progressive healthcare reform.
It's not unfair criticism, regardless of your view on whether it is helpful.
And I think Obama is creating the same problem for himself on Iraq. That should he become President, proponents of the Surge will be able to point to his arguments re. progress in Iraq to lobby against withdrawal.
Kondracke thinks Obama is trying to create his own window to "declare victory and get out". If Kondracke's correct, I reckon Obama's being too clever by half. Anything that might be described as "progress" (and God knows the government has an endless supply of gimmickry to show evidence of progress) and can be presented as a by-product of the Surge will result in a continuation of the Surge.
This is not to say Obama is being loose with the facts or disingenuous about his stance. It is just that the President that will end the Iraq fiasco will be someone with the conviction to call it just that. And it is not clear that, for all his other qualities, Obama is willing to do that.
April 11, 2008 7:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Nah. Well-written post, my friend, but I think (like Krugman) you're fighting the last war. You're right that the "triangulation" strategy of the late 90s didn't win us a lot. You're right that "strategic" compromises often give away too much.
But that's not the game Obama is playing here. He's not trying to appease the right. He sincerely wants to get out, but he also sincerely doesn't want to leave *too* much of a mess in Iraq, if we can avoid it.
You don't really lose anything, or give away anything, by admitting the truth. (E.g., that the surge has improved security.) And you don't really gain anything by reflexively denying everything your opponent asserts.
Besides, trying to define "success" is a very clever strategy for getting out if your main opponent (McCain) is trying to use the success of the surge as his main argument for staying in. Is it succeeding? Okay, well, great, then let's get out precisely to the extent that it is succeeding.
April 11, 2008 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
"He sincerely wants to get out, but he also sincerely doesn't want to leave *too* much of a mess in Iraq, if we can avoid it."
I just about agree with this, but I also think this is a dangerous hedge.
However, I'm not convinced that framing the debate around defining "success" in Iraq is the way to go. I'd rather the debate be about whether we, and Iraq, would be better off if we withdrew and soon.
But this is not a question for Petraeus, it's one for McCain.
April 11, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is actually in reply to both Eddie and Alex: in addition to having an eye to debates with McCain and sincerely wanting us out of Iraq, I think he's also thinking ahead to having to work with military leaders. As a guy who never served, he's got to build up some respect with them, and a courteous, respectful, probing set of questions (along with actually listening to the answers) puts him off to a decent start. I think the joint cheifs would eat Hillary alive...
April 11, 2008 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought that Obama was actually doing his job as a senator. He was trying to get info -- any info, any actual position that wasn't some generality -- out of the two, and not grandstanding and giving a speech.
April 11, 2008 9:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
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