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Kentucky Poll Shows Clinton Lead in Primary, McCain in the fall
Check out the details at http://polwatchers.typepad.com/pol_watchers/.
Preston-Osborne is an in-state firm with a credible reputation and ties to the Democratic party.
The basic findings:
• Clinton 56/Obama 25
• McCain 53 /Clinton 42
• McCain 60 /Obama 29
That makes sense for my adopted home state as of today.
Obama campaigning has begun mainly in the last week, so I expect he'll gain some primary points in the coming weeks and some general election points in the coming months.
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Comments (8)
He has no shot in Kentucky /Wva/ and will have to hope Indy and Gary carry the day in Indiana.
April 8, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
35% of the popular vote could get him 17 delegates, or 5% of what he needs to add to get nominated.
That's one reason to campaign.
The other reason is that we've got to rebuild coherent Democratic activism, and it's going to take time. My aim is to get ready to replace Bunning in four years and McConnell in six. The people Obama will bring in now, and the skills and connections they'll build now, will pay off in those races.
April 8, 2008 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait a sec -- Clinton's ahead in the Kentucky polls before campaigning has begun? Well, that settles it! Obama should just throw in the towel now.
April 8, 2008 8:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, its the they haven't heard of him yet? I don't think so. That dog won't hunt :)
April 8, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I've always seen Kentucky as a tough road for Obama. I've mentioned a couple of reasons in previous comments and they mostly deal with demographics and history, but I'll leave it to someone with more personal knowledge to list them this time, if they feel it's necessary.
Otherwise, my reason for jumping in and for clicking the "reply to" box is to say that the organizational benefits that you cite is actually true for the efforts of both candidates and whatever campaigning they both do in the state should produce local headlines about the Democratic agenda.
I know that as I vicariously followed Bill through the media reports of his sweep, a couple of weeks ago, a lot of the smalltown articles were about the excitement of having a former President in places like Maysville, Morehead and Frankfort, but quite a bit of what he actually said also filtered through the cracks.
April 8, 2008 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Darn it... I made mention of hitting the "reply to" in reference to Sporcupine and then with the log-out/log-in, I forgot to do it the second time.
April 8, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Magister,
You're right that my thinking was incomplete. Having folks work hard for Senator Clinton will also be good for Kentucky.
April 8, 2008 8:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm one of those who keep saying that the continued race is valuable because it's getting the message out there and for the most part, the candidates aren't really attacking each other and are focusing all of their guns on Bush, the Republicans and McCain.
If I may, sort of maybe to prove my point, I can only find reference to one appearance by John Kerry in Kentucky during the '04 campaign. I don't know if you recall others, but I'm glad you agree that all of the attention from the Democrats may or may not help us this time around, but it could be good for our future.
April 8, 2008 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
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