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I've Seen the Future And It Will Be . . .
June 8, 2008. After narrow losses in Pennsylvania and Indiana, large victories in North Carolina, Oregon, and Montana, narrow wins in Montana and Guam, and fifteen point losses in Kentucky, West Virginia, Puerto Rico, Obama is the nominee apparent, as superdelegates swing to him in numbers sufficient to assure his nomination. Clinton campaign leaves behind it wave of debt reminiscent of Reagan administration. Bloggers tearfully reminisce about campaign. Patti Solis Doyle admits having worked for Obama from January 2007 through February 2008, goes into hiding.
June 9, 2008. While viewing Zapruder-like loop reel of Hillary's concession speech, Chris Matthews makes awkward remark about her cleavage, is fired.
June 10, 2008. Obama opts out of public financing system, citing internet as parallel system of public financing, sets goal of raising $200 million for general election. He raises $310 million for general through Election Day, and outspends McCain nearly 4 to 1, more on unprecedented get out the vote effort, but also on media, in attempt to flip host of historically red states. McCain rails against hypocrisy of Obama, stays in public system because of fear he can't raise $100 million.
July 20, 2008. John Paul Stevens dies. Democrats refuse to confirm Bush's hastily nominated successor, (Obama's law review colleague and) Bush Solicitor General Paul Clement, which becomes election football. Obama cites need for balance in high court in refusing to support a vote on Clement, while Senate Dems simply say appointment is illegitimate. Republicans later establish 527 to make Supreme Court appointments an issue in general election in effort to rouse religious right, and to attack Democratic nominees in the event Obama wins.
August 26, 2008. Obama picks Jim Webb for VP, attempting to win Virginia. Webb ends up helping Dems narrowly win Pennsylvania, while Dems lose Virginia almost as narrowly as Webb won it. Webb outperforms Kasich in Presidential debates, creates minor stir by remarking after convention that he was the only white guy up there on Denver stage with Barack and Michelle Obama, and his own wife, Hong Le Webb.
Speculation that McCain and Webb both shacked up with current (younger, hotter) wives during prior marriages briefly rouses blogosphere, leads Navy guys to tout their shared virility.
September 2008. McCain, picking John Kasich as VP, experiences smallest convention bounce in modern history (5%), given permanent campaign and saturation coverage of it all year. Since Obama's post-convention lead peaked briefly at 12%, and shrunk quickly, race settles into dynamic after GOP convention in which Obama leads by no more than 4%, and McCain briefly leads by 1-2%. Very stable polling, with media intoning every three minutes that "turnout will decide this one." Profiles of independent voters and Hillary voters undecided about whether to vote Obama-Webb, stories about ubiquitous Obama organizers become so numerous, waves of nausea from saturation coverage roil electorate.
October 2008. Obama campaign accepts Bill Clinton's offer to campaign for Obama-Webb, sends him to places even more obscure than those Hillary sent him to in spring.
Hillary Clinton, who continues spring pattern of never being in same state as Bill, campaigns in western Pennsylvania, central Ohio, and southern California. Closer to election, she campaigns in suburbs of major cities in northeast, upper Midwest, and West, in tandem with Speaker Pelosi, Senator McCaskill, and other leading woman Dems, which helps at the margins in these areas.
November 4, 2008. Obama-Webb win with 278-260 electoral votes, winning Colorado, Nevada, and Michigan, but losing Ohio. Nevada and New Hampshire go late, leading to speculation that if McCain won their nine electoral votes, or Colorado's, election would be decided in House of Representatives, which turns out in light of Dem House pickups to have been a path to Obama-Webb win anyway. Obama-Webb put many red states in play: Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Alaska, Virginia, but lose all of them, albeit by less than 5%.
Democrats pick up five Senate seats, most surprisingly, Mark Begich toppling Ted Stevens in Alaska. Democrats pick up 15 seats in House, solidifying hold on Congress.
Hillary supporters do not return to the fold as frequently as expected, keeping popular vote 50-49%. Obama-Webb win 83% of Democrats, but win independents by 58-42%, helping them hold Pennsylvania, where McCain's embrace of NAFTA, saturation ads on that issue, and Obama's army of organizers prove fatal. McCain wins Ohio easily.
January 5, 2009. The new House and Senate sworn in, Dick Cheney resigns, citing heart trouble. Condoleeza Rice sworn in as Vice-President. Eugene Robinson writes another effusive column about her.
January 19, 2009. Having correctly personalized the whole 2008 election, presented by Democrats as a referendum on his misrule, and annoyed at all of those 1.20.09 bumper stickers, Bush resigns a day early in favor of Vice-President Rice. This has the effect, salutary for him, of allowing him not to welcome President Obama, while masking his churlishness by one-upping the Democratic Party by appointing the first black President. Thus, like John Adams, who presided over the criminalization of dissent and left the capital early, without welcoming his successor, Jefferson, or perhaps like Isiah Thomas and the Bad Boy Pistons leaving the 1991 Eastern Conference Finals seconds before the Jordan Bulls swept them away without shaking hands, W. slinks away into deserved ignominy . . .











Comments (50)
This is fascinating. I love it.
April 10, 2008 11:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
But who gets on SCOTUS?
April 11, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
No one gets on SCOTUS until Obama Administration. Then, with the first selection -- Janet Napolitano.
April 11, 2008 1:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow.
April 11, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now you've ruined it for all the rest of us!
Well, I guess if he ends up winning anyway, I might as well stop campaigning. Takes an awful lot of time...
April 11, 2008 1:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not entirely sure what this is. Too real to be snark, to ridiculous to be real. But I'm willing to recommend anyway.
April 11, 2008 1:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's certainly detailed. And at that level of detail, there's little chance of it turning out to be a close prediction overall. And some bits are snarky, like the one about Chris Matthews -- snarky but completely in character for him. But overall, a lot of it seems plausible to me, so I'm curious about what you thought was too ridiculous to be real.
I liked the bit about Bush resigning and Condi becoming president for a day. Not because I would ever want to see Condi become president, but because the idea of Bush doing something like that largely out of pettiness just seems so much like Bush. That, and the fact that it would allow Condi to pardon him, avoiding the constitutional question of a self-pardon. This of course would be after Bush himself signs so many pardons that he leaves office with his wrist in a cast.
April 11, 2008 3:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bonus points for referencing John Adams, Thomas Jefferson and the Bad Boy Pistons in the same sentence.
9.8
April 11, 2008 4:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pretty close margin. Thanks for the heads up, better start drinking now.
Oracle @ TPM - I have two questions.
What was the final demographic breakdown of the Hillary non-supporters? Were they all bused into Ohio for the general election?
April 11, 2008 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Almost all white, 60% female.
I simply believe the Ohio polls, which have (except for right after March 5) shown it to be a tough state for Dems this year. I also have Kasich on the ticket, which I think would shore up McCain generally and especially southern Ohio, and push Ohio out of jump ball status.
April 11, 2008 4:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good post, thanks!
April 11, 2008 9:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
mmmmmmmmm......
That looks like REAL Guinness....
April 11, 2008 12:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bit on Bush resigning on Jan 19 and Rice becoming the first black President is brilliant. Who COULDN'T see him doing that? Well done, articleman.
And, Milorad. Dude. Back away from the keypad, yo.
April 11, 2008 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's hilarious that even this post could yield ranting.
It's also hilarious that a troll is calling Obama _an affirmative action baby_. As I have pointed out here and there, the people who like to say this are invariably far dumber and less accomplished than he.
Harvard Law School employs blind grading in almost every class. Obama graduated magna, which was top 7% or so in 1991. So he went to one of the hardest, most competitive schools in America and blew away the curve.
Our guest who calls him an "affirmative action baby" because he's black, I'm sure, would have done much better.
There are some angry white folks who just can't process that there are high achieving black folks in the world. It doesn't fit their racist meme or their overweening need to feel superior when (sniff) -- they aren't. So sad. But if it makes them feel good, we should be glad to be part of their therapeutic outlet. They need a lot of help. We're here for you, trolls. It's going to be ok.
April 11, 2008 11:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
While both Hillary Clinton and John McCain graduated near the bottom of their respective classes (and Clinton failed the bar exam on her first try).
April 11, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I trust Justice Stevens is in much better health than Ma' McCain.
April 11, 2008 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Articleman trounces test pattern today!
And it's not even a metapost.
April 11, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you, baby. The recommends are awarded in a byzantine proportionality system, but we are at least edging test pattern today, which is comforing.
April 11, 2008 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a hard time believing, with the surge increasingly revealed as lipstick on a pig, and with the economy tanking, that the general will even be close. I'd say that in October, the Democrats move the goalposts past winning the presidential, to trying to sweep all 50 states.
April 11, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
YEA!! Can he take David Gregory with him? Please?
Regarding Obama/Webb losing VA. Me thinks, O! Oracle, that sighting must have been while you were not quite deeply integrated into the Oracular ethylene vault?
April 11, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm with you double:
I've been disgusted with him ever since David Gragory waxed on about how George Bush "made the right decision after 911, even though people in his administration wanted to attack Iraq right away." --- Whaaaaa? I think dancing with Karl Rove messed him up.
And -- Although I'm not sure I'm ready to give up my best senator (Webb), I know Virginia would go Obama/Webb, and I think it may even go Obama/? anyway. The tides are changing in the Tidewater!
April 11, 2008 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
"October 2008. Obama campaign accepts Bill Clinton's offer to campaign for Obama-Webb, sends him to places even more obscure than those Hillary sent him to in spring."
In this sick and sinister world, laughter is good like medicine ... thank you!
April 11, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are wayyyy too young to drink.
April 11, 2008 1:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm Irish. To the Irish, Guinness is like mother's milk. So I'm just salivating over mother's milk.
April 11, 2008 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, sometimes Baby Smurf's mothers milk is touched with Guinness..
April 11, 2008 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Can we get Chris Matthews to comment on this one?
April 11, 2008 5:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's too busy spitting and trying to surrupticiously wipe the slobber from his face when he thinks he is off camera.
April 11, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is brilliant. Your speculative fiction is giving FlyonTheWall's and his/her terrific analysis a run for his/her money in terms of substantive awesomeness. Thanks.
P.S. What happens in MI?
April 11, 2008 1:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Muchos gracias, Senor Norte Aufzoo.
I think you only said "brilliant" because the baby and the Smurf are throwing back Guinness just above you in the thread.
But to answer the open-ended but very important question of what happens in Michigan:
Michigan delegation is seated in Denver with 55/45 compromise reached shortly after Obama's nomination is secure.
Michigan goes 52-47 for Obama/Webb.
And the Tigers don't make the playoffs, and it gets really, really cold.
April 11, 2008 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
the lions don't make the playoffs either. but let's hope the redwings and the new bad boy pistons can bring home 2 more championships.
April 11, 2008 4:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would change a name hear or there, but whatever it is, have to agree with Genghis.
April 11, 2008 2:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
And they say nothing new is ever posted on the internet....
April 11, 2008 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.flickr.com/photos/cheezelsmurf/1565379552/in/set-72157594284996322/
April 11, 2008 3:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MAYrF1PDks
April 11, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
(-.-)(_ _)(-.-)
I bow in your direction
I especially love your ending - that one hadn't occurred to me, but that's good - really good. Commander CooCoo Bananas is capable of doing that. LOL! I have never been able to get past the point where I visualize his limo being egged going out like it was coming in. I just keep replaying that scene.
April 11, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks very much, H-Tex. Eggs it is, then.
But what's that stuff on top of your post? Looks like somebody mooning somebody.
April 11, 2008 4:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a pity that tarring and feathering have passed out of fashion.
April 11, 2008 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bravo.
I'd say the only prediction I dare to make is the McCain will get Leiberman as his VP, and will try mightily to seem his old, moderate self.
April 11, 2008 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The current line of secession with Speaker Pelosi would definitely come into play and would become acting VPOTUS until a successor is named. Then with so little time left Congress would drag it's feet before even getting to the 'hearings'.
There would be great apprehension of further resignation by bu$h and the eventual pardon deal.
If, Obama or Clinton wins the election under no circumstances would either allow Congress to approved Coniliesalot for confirmation...under no circumstances.
April 11, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
The current line of secession with Speaker Pelosi would definitely come into play and would become acting VPOTUS until a successor is named. Then with so little time left Congress would drag it's feet before even getting to the 'hearings'.
There would be great apprehension of further resignation by bu$h and the eventual pardon deal.
If, Obama or Clinton wins the election under no circumstances would either allow Congress to approved Coniliesalot for confirmation...under no circumstances.
April 11, 2008 5:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, the exact date? That's pretty bold. Possibly illegal.
April 11, 2008 5:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ric, Hello. Hello again. Threats are illegal, faux future histories are not.
April 11, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Never seen japanese emoticons, yo? I am bowing in reverence to your excellence.
April 11, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
large victories in North Carolina, Oregon, and Montana, narrow wins in Montana and Guam,
You gotta choose which win in Montana, sorry.
You didn't mention the Obama-McCain debates in which Obama reduces McCain to stuttering, and at least once nearly to tears of frustration, trying to respond on Iraq while involved in a new style debate in which the candidates actually talk to each other.
April 11, 2008 8:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
Or when Obama gently goads McCain (who is severly medicated) into throwing a punch, and when he misses and falls on his ass, he screams, "Well, Hussein, your wife is a c*nt!"
April 11, 2008 8:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
silly stuff.
an attempt at what?
i dont understand the level of the comments here.
if you dont ever wish to be relevant you all are in the right place.
as for me, I am leaving .
and thats no silly prediction.
April 11, 2008 8:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
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