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Is Obama Sitting on a Win?
Marc Ambinder suggests that the Obama campaign backed out of the North Carolina debate, "because they did not want to give Hillary Clinton any excuse to stay in the race beyond Tuesday." Is this just good strategy in the hopes that money problems and only a narrow win for Clinton might cause her to end her campaign, or could the Obama camp be setting low expectations, secretly predicting a win?
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Comments (11)
Unfortunately unlikely.
Have seen circumstantial evidence that Senator Obama's campaign has access to some truly outstanding internal polling. Would suspect your first guess is the more likely - namely that Senator Obama is simply sticking with his "marathon" strategy, and sees little good that could come of yet another debate. The potential for guess this is supported by your observation that Senator Clinton's campaign appears to be short of funds.
Typically, it is the less-financially sound campaign that wants all the debates (and the free airtime associated with them). The more well-funded candidate usually preferring to bury his/her opponent with overwhelming ad purchases.
April 21, 2008 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is exactly what happened in her '06 Senate campaign. John Spencer was on the news every week complaining that Clinton wouldn't debate him (and with good reason, why give free airtime?)
April 21, 2008 4:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
After the last debatebacle, I don't know anyone who wants another. I shudder to think of the inane questions Katie Couric would come up with.
April 21, 2008 4:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
After 21 freaking "debates" (or was it 22?) who the hell needs another one?! They're debating each other every single day in the media -- and hitting more issues that way than they do in the organized (did I say that?) "debates."
April 21, 2008 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Clinton Campaign in broke - having debates will give her free coverage, sometimes 3-4 days of free coverage. The only way Obama can push Hillary out of the race without infuriating her supporters would be to see her run out of money and drop out on her own.
She's doing Larry King, Olbermann, WWE Raw and I believe one other show tonight - What do they all have in common? They are free television time.
Hillary is going to win Pennsylvania by 15 points, which will give her a ton of free television time. Just as that coverage was running out she'd get the debate coverage and aftermath - again more free coverage.
April 21, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that 15 points is just a little too ambitious or wishful thinking. If she wins I say maybe 3 points.
April 21, 2008 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a good strategy in either case. It's time everyone stopped treating Hillary Clinton like she mattered.
Once Tuesday is over, the Obama campaign needs to declare victory, ignore Hillary Clinton, and start attacking McCain like a pack of starving wolves on a lame caribou.
April 21, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama did not cancel the debate, the NC Democratic Party cancelled it citing issues of unity.
April 21, 2008 5:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
After reading most of the posts on this site, I'm more convinced than ever that Obama will represent a complete disaster for the Democratic party.
By the time November comes around, all he'll have supporting him will be the die-hard Obamanians that populate the blogsphere and few else.
Most of Hillary's support tends to be much more moderate if not a little to the right. I think by the time of the general election, fully 1/3 to 1/2 of her support will move to McCain.
Please explain how Obama is going to win if he can't win states like Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida? (Yes, I'm counting Florida, because those voters who cast ballots in January and who apparently don't exist as far as Obama is concerned, will have their vote count in November)
And don't try to say that he can make it up with states like Kansas or Mississippi.
April 21, 2008 7:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh Kevin, your Clintonista colors are showing. Sorry to inform you, but HRC is a Republican dream.
April 21, 2008 7:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Back on March 7, you said:
"Obama is not going to win the nomination.
When the convention comes around and he's behind both Hillary and McCain are up by double digets over Obama, do you really think the supers are going to let the technicality that he won some unrepresentative caucusus be the detirmining factor? Get real."
I see you changed your mind and you're now accepting Obama as the party nominee. You're on the right track there.
April 21, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
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