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Indiana: where are we going and why are we in this handbasket?

I can see the future and it scares me. May 6th is fast approaching and it is probably our last real chance for a clean end to the kidney stone that is the Democratic primary. We could finally end the pain if Obama could just win both NC and IN.  

He'll win NC, so the question is: can Obama end this once and for all by winning Indiana?

No.  (I just vomited in my mouth a little). I'd like to believe that Obama could win IN, I really would. But I just don't see it. I've never trusted the polls that have said the race there is a dead heat and the only pollster who has been reliably accurate, SUSA, has consistently shown Clinton with a wide lead (latest was +9).

And where does that leave us?  Ugh. It's not pretty. The primary slogs into June and God only knows what that'll mean for the tenor of the campaign. It can and will get worse. It will be a bitter end.

And what does the end look like: Obama will have an over 100 pledged delegate lead. The superdelegates will not overturn that type of margin. Don't take my word for it. Clinton advisors were saying back before OH-TX that she just needed to get within 20-30 delegates for the supers to feel comfortable overturning the pledged delegate winner. She won't be that close and by late June enough superdelegates will endorse Obama to make him the presumptive nominee.

Except, Hillary won't stop just then. The HRC campaign will continue to fight for FL and MI to be seated based on the votes held and we may even see court action.  At the same time, the campaign will hit Obama even harder in an attempt to convince all delegates that he can't win. The HRC campaign will stoop to tv ads like this one.

HRC is never gonna give up.
Unless Obama can win in Indiana.  
Save us Obi-wan-Indiana, you're our only hope!


Comments (8)

YouTubers think that the bartender in Rick Roll look like Obama. Is there any chance that you really meant that the Clinton Camp would *actually* stoop to just airing that, in a brutal jab at his inexperience?

It is the perfect theme song for Hillary to serenade the Superdelegates.

So, if the Rules Committee meets on May 30 and allows half of Florida's delegates to be seated, and splits the MI delegations, what does HRC base her slog on to the convention? I'd expect the SDs to weigh in the first week of June and put Obama over 2025. Do you think HRC won't step down at that point? It's hard for me to see that happening. I'm expecting HRC and WJC to start campaigning for Obama in June or July.

Correction... SDs to give Obama a majority somewhere between 2025 and 2208, if FL and MI delegations are sorted.

I agree with every single thing you said, except one. I think she's going to take Indiana as well, and have thought that for some time. But I think even if she lost, she would stay in the race.

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Was that entire post just a nefarious ploy to rickroll the entire TPM community?

A pox on you!

No, actually it's a serious post but I threw that in just for fun.

Sorry...it was late.

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You're analysis is spot on, Yoda U., as is your characterization of this spectacle as a kidney stone. My guess is that even if the rules committee comes up with some Solomonic splitting of the FL/MI delegation baby, the HRC people will object and take their objections to the Rules Committee after in late June and possibly push for a minority report of the Rules Committee to be heard at the convention.

Yes, that would be horrible. But it's been a nonstop horror show thus far, why should it stop in June?

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