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Holy, Shmoly! 26%? What is up, Kentucky?
I'm not a big SurveyUSA fan (automated pollers bother me for many reasons). I know it is a "red state". I know Sen. Obama is ahead in pledged delegates, etc. I know the demographics thing. I know it is only one state. I know Sen. Clinton lost states like this, too.
I know all of these things. But, HOW does the Democrat's front-runner trail 62-26% in a poll for the upcoming primary? If our nominee is that clear, he - or, she - should not get blown out like that in any primary.
I've NEVER been a fan of "draft" efforts - potential candidates should get in and be tested. And, I'm still not saying that we (Democrats) should look elsewhere. But, this is certainly an argument against declaring the race over and/or compelling super delegates to vote for one or the other.
(footnote: Obama performs 13 points lower than Clinton in a KY matchup vs. McCain)
Comments (23)
KY is the only State that matters to Hillary!
April 15, 2008 5:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not going there.
April 15, 2008 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Demographically, Kentucky is really tough for national Democrats. We're a very rural state, including an Appalachian east and a very Southern west. Our northern edge is Cincinnati suburbs--but the city itself isn't ours. Our African-American population has been a smaller fraction each decade, and it's now 9 or 10% of the electorate. Our economy is weak enough that it does not draw in many immigrants. The best Democratic shot would be a strong economic message, and of course national Democrats haven't tried that in decades.
Plus Obama hasn't had a chance to warm up the local connections here. So yes, it's a truly difficult state for Obama in the primary and any Democrat at the top of the ticket.
April 15, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was looking at the exit polls and noticed that Obama did real well in the southern states that had a significant black population.
Maybe it is true that he doesn't do so well in KY because the small black population isn't enough to give him the win.
I've wondered about Tennessee though. In the exit poll, they had a 29% black vote that voted 77% for Obama. That was a lot less vote than he has gotten out of the black demographic in a big majority of later contests.
The Tennessee and Kentucky electorate look very close at this point, even though the issues important to the voters could be different.
April 15, 2008 6:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah there is a few states Obama does really bad in, like TN/AR/WV/KY iam not sure exactly why though i can make guesses. Though it doesnt matter a lot since Hillary nor Obama plan on winning those in the fall (well Hillary thinks she could get her home state). Though i know Obama will go to all those states and campaign there even knowing he wont win them in the fall.
April 15, 2008 6:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
I live in Ohio. I drove down to Louisville. Let me just say that Louisville was one of the most disgusting, low-class cities I've ever visited. Everywhere you look there's a strip joint. The entire state is basically guns, girls, and fireworks.
Kentucky is Ohio's New Jersey.
April 15, 2008 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
And yet Portland, Oregon, a liberal's paradise, has the highest number of strip clubs per capita of any metropolitan area. Go figure.
April 15, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
A Kentucky woman who was raised as a Jersey girl could get really cranky about now.
April 15, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the insights, guys. (Though I denounce and reject that NJ analogy.) I knew or suspected most of that, but those numbers just gave me a real jolt. It is hard to conceive that the nomination might be "over" in so many people's minds and the winner-to-be is going to lose in at least 3 of the upcomings.
April 15, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Where's Louisville1975 when you need him?
April 15, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
You read my mind.
April 15, 2008 6:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just randomly read this on Sullivan:
When's Kentucky vote again? Too lazy to look it up right now.
April 15, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kentucky votes on May 20.
April 15, 2008 7:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh snap!!!!!!!!!! This changes everything!
April 15, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I do love bluegrass music.
April 15, 2008 6:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh boy. (Wipes bead of sweat from brow)
Your mother and I have been dreading the day we had to explain this kind of thing too you, you see, some people well, at least in some parts of the country old feelings of...
Oh dear this is hard...
Perhaps this video will clear it up for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBGIQ7ZuuiU
(or you could google Kentucky + racial voting patterns)
(and sorry about the rroll Josh, some comedy writes itself ;-))
April 15, 2008 6:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm glad you did that, TT. SurveyUSA actually has some poll on its website purporting to show that 6% of Americans have been RickRolled. I was trying to figure out how to work that into my comment without just posting the link - you figured it out.
And, to re-state my purpose with this article, it is simply to note that those declaring the nomination closed should hang on to their horses. (insert Run for the Roses link here)
April 15, 2008 8:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama will win Louisville, Kentucky's only truly liberal city. The rest of the state is Hillary's
Brian
April 15, 2008 6:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
No Democrat can come within a country mile of carrying Kentucky in November, so no need for you to get your Kevlar pantsuit in a bunch about it. Let that Gun Totin', whiskey swillin', frontier gal have it. She looks good in a coon skin cap. No wonder she scared off all those Tuzla snipers.
April 15, 2008 7:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
ChoozyGuy:
Obama will carry Lexington, Covington, Danville, Frankfort. If he can get here to campaign, he'll take 40% or better--the 26% is an exaggeration.
Sadly, you're right about November, though, especially with the astonishing Mitch McConnell on the ballot making sure of the turnout.
Six weeks ago, watching our state Senate, I decided that the Republicans were positioning to run as "regular people" against Democratic "elitists" in the fall. Until the in-state Democrats pull ourselves together, they'll be able to do stuff like that and win.
The real benefit of the Obama campaign here is that a new generation is deciding to figure out how to rebuild the Democrats. Not soon enough to change this fall, but real enough to make a long-term difference.
April 15, 2008 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is it possible that as this elitist stuff rolls off Obama, it will also help it roll off KY Democrats?
April 15, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I think that it is possible. The same state Republicans have also saddled us with a ghastly state budget that will have us laying off prosecutors and teachers in the coming months--and that should also hurt them.
I should add that we actually are having an Obama boom--for us. We had had our county party leadership meetings last week. Of 60 people present, at least 14 were newcomers there for Obama, and the 2 Hillary backers are good friends who will be strong for Obama as soon as this ghastly primary ends. There's little media coverage from other counties, but what I can see looks remarkably similar.
April 15, 2008 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Hillary, I knew Daniel Boone. Daniel Boone was a friend of mine. Hillary, you are no Daniel Boone!" Senator John McCain
April 15, 2008 7:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
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