Reader Posts

« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »

Hillary Takes the Lead in the POPULAR VOTE

avatar

Popular Vote Count
Clinton:
15,095,663
Obama: 14,973,720
margin: +121,943 Clinton
source: Real Clear Politics

========================

Hillary has taken the lead in the most important index - the popular vote - among the primary states that have voted up till now.  It would be a travesty if Hillary has the lead in the popular vote, and yet Obama steals this election with superdelegates and overturns the will of the people.  Looking at the upcoming states, while Obama may win Indiana and North Carolina, it seems unlikely that he will be able to overtake the popular vote once you factor in the rest of the states that have yet to vote.  Further, it's becoming increasingly apparent that Obama will lose in the general election against John McCain.  Obama should do what's right and concede defeat so that Hillary can start making the case against John McCain so that Democrats can take back the White House.


Comments (45)

Mike, this is not a nomination that is decided on popular vote. It's determined by delegates. That's why some states have caucuses, and some states have primaries. The caucus states don't even report the popular vote numbers, because there aren't any. You can't just add up the numbers any way that is of benefit to your candidate and ignore the reality of the situation.

avatar

You are wrong. read the top line:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

avatar

What are you talking about?

Mikey is adding 328,000 illegitimate votes Hillary received in Michigan, whereas if you look at Obama's column he has zero, BECAUSE OBAMA FOLLOWED THE RULES AND TOOK HIS NAME OFF THE BALLOT.

...plus the illegitimate votes from Florida. That's the line Mikey is looking at.

BECAUSE OBAMA FOLLOWED THE RULES AND TOOK HIS NAME OFF THE BALLOT.

The rule was no campaigning in Michigan. Unless I'm mistaken, in which case please let me know and direct me to a source.

avatar

Mike, the echo chamber won't allow this sort of talk.

Hey Louis, Congratulations on your candidates 8-point win.

avatar

No, please, broadcast this as much as possible. It sounds more and more desperate.

When you have to reach for something, anything to show Hillary is leading in some measure, it emphasizes that she's, in fact, losing by every measure.

It's like saying Hillary is ahead in pop. votes if you double her total of actual votes.


"You smell that? Do you smell that? It's desperation... I love the smell of desperation in the morning. You know, one time we had the party bombed, for 12 months. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' DLC body. The smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole party... Smelled like... Hillary...

Someday this war's gonna end... "

only if you count MI (where Obama was not on the ballot) or FL (where Obama had not campaigned.

Without those two that Hillary herself agreed would not be counted, Hillary still trails in the popular vote

From NBC first read:

That new popular vote total (not counting FL or MI) has Obama leading Clinton, 49%-47%. For those keeping score, that's a difference of 483,129. ... So those remaining contests, per this conservative projection, bring Obama’s popular vote lead to 515,629. If you add Florida, that gives Clinton almost another 300,000 more. So you if you include the Sunshine State, Obama will still lead her by about 215,000 popular votes. No wonder Clinton herself decided to start talking about Michigan again, because she can't "win" the popular vote without it. The problem: Even many Clinton supporters believe it’s not a valid measurement.

What the Clinton campaign is putting out:
Coming across journalists desks this morning was the following e-mail from Phil Singer at Clinton camp with the subject, "More People Have Voted For Hillary Than Any Other Candidate":

"After last night's decisive victory in Pennsylvania, more people have voted for Hillary than any other candidate, including Sen. Obama. Estimates vary slightly, but according to Real Clear Politics, Hillary has received 15,095,663 votes to Sen. Obama's 14,973,720, a margin of more than 120,000 votes. ABC News reported this morning that 'Clinton has pulled ahead of Obama' in the popular vote. This count includes certified vote totals in Florida and Michigan."

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/

You'd think as democrats having to deal with the dark ages of the Bush administration, that we would be sick of lies and spin no matter who it comes from. But apparently Hillary supporters like a candidate who acts like a republican.

avatar

Opus, what rules directed Obama to take his name off the ballot? Can you cite those rules? I know you can't because there was no rule that required him to take his name off the ballot. Obama CHOSE to take his name off the ballot, which is fine, but that choice led him to get no votes in Michigan.

As for Florida, the only candidate who violated the pledge and rules was Obama when he held a press conference and ran television ads. Hillary stayed well within bounds of the rules and won fair and square. I understand that because your candidate didn't come out on top, you're upset. What I don't understand is how so many Democrats are now advocating the disenfranchisement of so many voters who showed up to the polls in record numbers.

Mikey, Where have you been for the past year?

Obama and Hillary both SIGNED a PLEDGE that they would NOT PARTICIPATE in Florida and Michigan.

Obama honored that pledge, because he is the honorable candidate.

Hillary did not honor that pledge, because she's a dishonest freaking liar.

Would you like to see a scan of the pledge that Hillary signed? A person is only as good as their word, Hillary's words, as we've seen so many times, are worthless.

That pledge was made to the Democratic Party. You're assuming that Mikey is a Democrat...

I get that you're spouting lies, but this is really sad. Don't you remember this article?

The pledge sought to preserve the status of traditional early-voting states and bring order to an unwieldy series of primaries that threatened to accelerate the selection process. It was devised to keep candidates from campaigning in Florida, where the primary is set for Jan. 29, and Michigan, which is trying to move its contest to Jan. 15.

emphasis mine

[snip]

The pledge does not apply to fund-raising events, which officials said could provide a loophole for candidates like Mr. Obama, who has held fund-raisers for as little as $25 a person that have doubled as political rallies. Campaign officials said they were awaiting a ruling from the national committee to see what type of appearances — if any — they could make.

You also manage to ignore the fact that Clinton also attended 3 or 4 fundraisers in FL, in the week before the election. Most papers across the nation actually say that Clinton did campaign in Florida.

Then there's the issue of MI. You can read this article and see how the things Clinton has said in the past month do not jibe with what she said 6 months ago. Sad.

Note the disclaimer at the bottom of the RealClearPolitics chart:

*(Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals. RealClearPolitics has estimated the popular vote totals for Senator Obama and Clinton in these four states. RCP uses the WA Caucus results from February 9 in this estimate because the Caucuses on February 9 were the “official” contest recognized by the DNC to determine delegates to the Democratic convention. The estimate from these four Caucus states where there are not official popular vote numbers increases Senator Obama’s popular vote margin by 110,224. This number would be about 50,000 less if the Washington primary results from February 19th were used instead of the Washington Caucus results.)

avatar

mageduley, acting like a Republican would be to deny the franchise to the millions of Democratic voters who showed up to the polls in record numbers in two states to express their preference in their primaries, which were sanctioned by the state. Acting like a Republican would to say that the popular vote doesn't matter. That's Republican.

Dude, you're discounting four entire states with your baseless argument.

See my above comment:

"Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine Have Not Released Popular Vote Totals."

Why are you so happy to go Republican on these four states?

While I appreciate your passion for your nominee, your totals include Mi & FL and the estimated caucus results. You have to remember the rules that the DNC set up for this Primary. Delegate count is what matters. I'm curious to know your take on the rules.

Sorry...not nominee, but candidate!

avatar

Opus, so under your standards, didn't Obama violate his own pledge by being on the ballot in Florida? He's such a "dishonest freaking liar."

I don't know where you've been, but the pledge was not to campaign in those primaries. The only person who violated that pledge was Obama, in Florida, where he lost badly. It's arguable that he violated it in Michigan, too, since his campaign's surrogates ran a very effective "vote uncommitted" campaign, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Regardless, you're pretty much wrong either way you look at it.

The pledge was not to "Participate". That's the phrasing on the pledge. Do I need to define "participate" for you? That involves everything, not just campaigning.

They agreed not to participate. The results are not valid. There is no way you can argue around this. Either you abide by the party rules, or you switch your registration to a party whose rules you can abide by.

When did Obama campaign in FL? I know you're not talking about the national ad buy on CNN. If you're talking about that, then I know you're not part of the reality-based community.

Obama, Edwards, Richardson and Biden all would have taken their names off the Florida ballot as well, but the deadline had passed for making changes. The reason they were on the ballot in Florida and not Michigan have to do with state law.

avatar

There is nothing in the rules that doesn't allow the DNC to seat the delegates from Michigan and Florida. If you actually read them, you would see that. These states voted in state sanctioned elections, millions turned out and their delegates should be seated. Taking into account Florida and Michigan, the delegate number is virtually tied.

Further, it's quite clear that the popular vote is a better indicator of the will of the people than the pledged delegate number (see, Texas and Washington state for evidence). The fact is it will be horrible if the super delegates don't support the candidate that has more of the popular vote. We must not become Republican in our zeal to support one candidate over the other, which is what Obama, his campaign and many of his supporters are becoming.

A federal judge ruled the Michigan results invalid. As they say, "case closed."

Oh my...I'm really embarrassed for you right now. Did you really add in the votes from FL and MI? Because on my RCP site, Obama is up by over half a million votes.

And Clinton talking point notwithstanding, the reality is still that this is a delegate race and Clinton who is still actively going after delegates (elected, pledged, "automatic" and super, they're still delegates) for a reason. Hey...I'm all for you getting the wool pulled over your eyes by their campaign, it's just that when you do it so publicly, it's kinda sad.

avatar

ondioline, the pledge was with state party chairs of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada, not with the national DNC, as your post suggests.

and faboo, what's sad is you advocating for the disenfranchisement of millions of voters so publicly. I'm really embarassed for you - please get help.

"Please get help?" Gosh, that's such an AOL line from '93. LOL. The typical line of the intellectually-stunted. Damn 15 years later and someone is actually using it on me. LMAO. Thanks for the laugh.

I am not advocating for anything. I'm stating facts. I'm sorry they're distorting your worldview, but there they are.

Mikey, Again, there is no popular vote total for Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine.

By your own standard, you are a complete hypocrite.

avatar

Opus, you yourself said they have not released the count. How am I to count them when the states have not released the count?

Also, you never answered why Obama didn't violate the pledge under your standards by having his name on the ballot in Florida? Why isn't Obama a "dishonest freaking liar" for having his name on the ballot in Florida. He must have "participated" in Florida under your own standards, no?

Because ther is no count! They're caucus states! The metric is delegates, not popular vote! Get yourself a Basic Government 101 book and learn the system and stop repeating the baseless arguments you are parroting from the Hillary camp.

#1-Obama was not permitted, by law, to remove his name from the Florida ballot.

#2-Mikey you fundamentally misunderstand the nominating process. The process is dictated by the national parties. The 2008 for Democrats was set by the DNC and dictated by the Clintons, as titular heads of the party. Unfortunately for HRC, the very process she advocated has become and is the rope that has her twisting in the breeze.

#3-The Florida delegation will not be counted for the reason the Florida Democratic Party violated the rules set out by the DNC (aka Clinton Inc.) The party had the option to conduct a primary which did not violate the rules. Admittedly, it would have meant the state party would have had to fund the primary. Under Florida law, the legislature sets a primary date for both parties and the state pays the tab. Florida's party could have choosen to opt-out of the state-funded primary and conducted one which followed the rules. They did not. As for MI, the state party deliberately choose to violate the rules.

#4-Obama did not run adds in either the Florida market or in the national market during the run-up to the Florida primary. HRC did run national adds (think CNN, etc) during the run-up to the Florida primary. Both campaigns conducted fund raisers in Florida -- all within the rules.

#5-Your assertion that Obama cannot defeat McBush in November is simply not bourne out by the facts. That is wishful thinking on your part. You have your head up the ass of the Clinton, Inc./Rovian strategy which is about 50%+1 whereas Obama's approach is the 50-state strategy. The 50-state strategy puts no fewer than 16 states into play. You, also, seem to forget that a majority of Americans hate HRC.

I haven't done the math myself. If true, Hillary does have a chance as long as she can hold onto the popular vote until the convention.

HRC does not have and cannot have the popular vote.

How highminded of everyone in this thread to let rules get in the way of people's votes.

If I were Obama, I'd have campaigned in Michigan. Screw the DN/LC. Why should Michiganders get the shaft for voting at a different time than years before? Are rules and voting dates so sacred?

When I was a kid playing Monopoly with my siblings, whoever was losing would almost inevitably start trying to change the rules in the middle of the game. This was always described, quite rightly, as whining. It rarely ended well. Usually there were tears. Sometimes blood.

In this election, there were very clear rules established. Every candidate knew (or should have known) the rules going in. Some of the rules were confusing, like Texas, but campaigns pay consultants millions of dollars to stay on top of those things, so it's really no excuse.

Obama has played by the rules, and he is winning by the rules.

Trying to change the rules now is just whining. Give it up.

avatar

Actually, Phoebe, Obama violated the rules. You see, he campaigned in Florida in violation of the rules. According to the rules, he should not be alloted any delegates from Florida. It's arguable that his campaign worked in concert with his surrogates in a "vote uncommitted" campaign in Michigan, too. If that's the case, according to the rules, he should be alloted any delegates there either. Basically, the "rules" argument may not be so good for Obama because it cuts against him. Further, there is nothing in the rules that says that Michigan's and Florida's cannot be seated despite their election date. So, go ahead with the "rules" argument, but know that it serves you no favors.

And faboo, it's so despicable when Obama supporters describe Hillary supporters as "intellectually-stunted" or uneducated. I think it's tantamount to Randi Rhodes, an Obama supporter, calling Hillary's voters "white trash." It's disgusting and it needs to stop.

Obama isn't being allocated any delegates from Michigan or Florida. Neither is Hillary.

It was agreed BEFORE the primaries began that Michigan and Florida would not count. Voters in both states were told their votes would not count. This was a decision made by the DNC (including Hillary guy Harold Ickes).

So, rules is rules. No delegates from Michigan or Florida.

What?

Further, there is nothing in the rules that says that Michigan's and Florida's cannot be seated despite their election date.

Except that the DNC rules stated that any state that moved up it's primary before the approved 4 states would have all their delegates stripped.

So, once again, you're lying.

It does not suprise me that a liar is supporting a liar.

And faboo, it's so despicable when Obama supporters describe Hillary supporters as "intellectually-stunted" or uneducated. I think it's tantamount to Randi Rhodes, an Obama supporter, calling Hillary's voters "white trash." It's disgusting and it needs to stop.

I've got to say, that's awesome! First you attack faboo by telling her to "get help", and then when she responds in kind, you call it despicable! Brilliant!

avatar

I believe the state party leaders were told that their delegates would not be seated, not that their votes wouldn't count. So, you may use that to argue that their delegates shouldn't be seated, but not that the votes should not be included in the popular vote tally. Also, it seems that many voters didn't receive the message you say they were sent because many showed up to vote in record numbers.

As it stands, Hillary is ahead in the popular vote - I think that's pretty incontrovertible. Whether the states have their delegates seated will be up to the DNC's Rules Committee, but there is nothing in the RULES that disallows them from seating both states' delegations according to the state sanctioned results of their primaries. Rules is rules.

You need to read the rules without your rose-colored glasses.

avatar

Here is a summary of the rules:

The Rules and Bylaws Committee has the power to lift any and all automatic sanctions along with the power to impose and modify additional sanctions. The Rules and Bylaws committee also has the power to create its own committee to create an alternative process for delegate selection should the state party not cooperate or be unable to resolve the issue on its own.

Also, fooboo, the rules don't state that the delegates will be stripped. They state that 1/2 of their delegates will be automatically stripped and then the the committee can take further action, which is what happened. However, the rules also indicate that they can undo that action taken. So, instead of calling people liars without doing your research, maybe you should stop spewing such vitriol and do your homework.

Post a Comment

Inside Cafe



Cafe Features


October 6-10

Book Cover

October 13-17

Book Cover

October 20-24

Book Cover

November 17-21>

Book Cover

December 1-5

Book Cover





Book Club Archive



Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall

Site Editor
Lila Shapiro

Intern
Claire Wilcox



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address