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Hillary: Sold on history
The noise of the MSM that somehow Clinton has closed the
gap and is actually gaining momentum on Obama needs a cold hard dose of
market reality.
If you look at the political futures markets (intrade.com), there has been zero gain for Clinton since Pennsylvania.
For
THREE years the political futures contract on Hillary was riding at
over 50 (this meant the market was giving her a better than 50% chance
of being the Democrat's nominee). Her contract surged to nearly 80 by
early January of 2008.
But her price fell off the cliff in early February.
The saying is 'buy on rumor, sell on history.' This girl has been history for months now.
And
not one single rumor to the contrary has convinced buyers to come back
into the market for Clinton, even at her current price of 17.
Another
saying is 'never catch a falling knife,' and, yes, despite,
Pennsylvania, Clinton is still falling. Earnings expectations were
that Hillary would win the state by over 15%, she failed to meet those
expectations with her 9.2% win. And while her stock price hasn't been punished for failing to meet those political earnings expectations, she has definitely not been rewarded in anyway as would be suggested by the media madness or the irrational blogosphere angst.
According
to her futures contract, Clinton went into Pennsylvania with an over 17
percent chance of being Democrat nominee and she came out of it with a 17
percent chance.
Obama went into
Pennsylvania with a contract price of 81.0 - 82.0. He is now trading
at 80.1. His contract is being held by strong hands unmoved by the
madness of the crowds shouting his ride is over.
This is very bullish for him. The trend is Obama's friend.











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