Reader Posts
« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Hillary might win by 11pt!!! 56-44
Don't trust exits!!!! Those Drudge numbers are seriously misleading.
But this is interesting from CNN:
"Fifty-eight percent of those voters said they chose the New York senator. That includes voters who made up their mind in the aftermath of last week's heated Democratic debate."
That is a few points shy of Ohio's 20s margin of undecideds that broke for her.
With an avg of 8 undecideds in most of the polls, and a margin of 5 or 6 for Clinton, if she gets 58% of the undecideds that's like 5 extra pts. = 10 or 11.
So Hillary might win by 11. Brace yourself.
Advertisement
Comments (12)
I don't think anyone is taking the Exit polls seriously.
April 22, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, that would be 5 extra points for Clinton, and 3 for Obama, net extra margin of 2. If everything else you say is right, she wins by 7 or 8, something like 54-46.
April 22, 2008 7:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The best thing about this post is the title -- Hillary might win by 11pt!!! 56-44
Is it elitist to know how to subtract???
April 22, 2008 7:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh. I must be the target demographic. I didn't catch it.
Guess ah cain't cipher...
8-p
April 22, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think she will win by 10-12 points. The polls have had a huge undecided and they usually go for whoever is winning.
But Obama still is winning when you play be the real Democratic rules of delegates.
April 22, 2008 7:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ouch. If Obama only succeeds in cutting a 30-35 point deficit to 11 points then I'm afraid the superdelegates will conclude that he's a weak candidate, and conclude that therefore the obvious thing to do is to vote for an opponent who can't compete with Obama in terms of pledged delegates, who can't compete with Obama for the popular vote, and who can't come close to Obama's fundraising ability.
Because obviously if the frontrunner is a weak candidate then the candidate in second place is ... um .... wait ...
I'll have to get back to you on this, can't sustain trying to think like a Hillary supporter for more than a few seconds at a time.
April 22, 2008 7:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just as I said when she was ahead in the polls by 30 points, I still believe all of these weeks later, she'll win by 7.
April 22, 2008 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Snipe snipe snipe!
I wrote it in a hurry. And no, I'm not a Hillarista, just warning to fellow Obamaites not to drink the Drudge Koolaid!!
April 22, 2008 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry... it was pretty snipy. Looks like you were right about 10%. Sure would be nice if the final 1% cuts it down to 8%, but probably too late for headline grabbing.
April 23, 2008 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I think Clinton will take Pennsylvania something like 55/45 or 56/44.
Only, to win the nomination, she would need to split all remaining delegates 59/41.
To win pledged, she would need to split all remaining primaries by an average of 66/44.
When she wakes up tomorrow morning, getting the nomination will look harder, not easier, than it looked last night.
April 22, 2008 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think you are right, Sporcupine. It will all sink in at North Carolina.
April 22, 2008 8:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The supers are about ready to "gut up" and do their job. Hillary has made it much eaiser for them tonight.
"yes we will", can -do won't cut it anymore.
April 22, 2008 11:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment