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Hillary drops from 33pt lead to 5-7pt. lead in PA, a state tailor-made for her. Why?
Pundits have been saying if you wanted to design a state tailor-made for a Hillary win, it would be Pennsylvania.
All the demographics are in her favor.
Why did she lose 25pts in a matter of weeks?
Obama's advertising? Are her supporters that disloyal?
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Comments (34)
Let me go out on a limb here.......
Because she opened her mouth?
April 21, 2008 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
33pt lead? You choose to base your argument on a single poll outlier taken on 31st October 2007?
Back in March 2007 Hillary had a 10pt lead you might be interested to know.
Towards the end of Feb 2009 she had only a 5pt lead, and at the start of april it was anywhere from a 5pt lead to a 2pt loss.
Rather than ask what's happened to Hillary's lead, I'd ask why hasn't Barack made any real, permanent gains for all his time and money? April hasn't seen any lasting movement in his direction at all according to this http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
I guess we'll all find out the answer soon, but I felt compelled to point out how ridiculous this argument is.
April 22, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
$11.2 million versus $4.8 million.
If he doesn't win with that kind of money, that's telling something. Last time we had the same discussion (Ohio) we were saying all he needs is more time. Now he's had lots of time.
April 21, 2008 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Governor Rendell and virtually the entire political establishment in PA is on Hillary's side. 15 years of Clinton name recognition. Historically white blue-collar, over 50 voting majority.
The Rev. Wright issue comes to a head, Bittergate, William Ayers, Louis Farrakhan, accusations of Obama being un-american, Obama's worst debate performance to date.
And she loses a 33pt. lead because Obama had a bigger ad budget?
What's going to happen in a state if McCain has a bigger ad budget?
April 21, 2008 10:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
This must be some sort of joke. Do people not realize the difference between $11 million spent on ads and $4 million? Obama has been all over the state for nearly a month. He's a skilled politician. He has the entire media on his side, and most of the DNC wants Clinton to quit. It's incredible that she's still drawing such a high percentage of the vote, and goes to show that thousands of people are still unconvinced by Obama.
This is one of the poorest attacks I've seen on Clinton. To see her still retaining a ~9-10 pt. lead, in spite of all of this, is truly impressive.
I'll be sure to criticize Obama in North Carolina, when his present 25 pt lead is dwindled down to 10.
April 22, 2008 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nice strawman argument, no doubt the Clintons will be using it.
The fact is that in this election cycle we've already seen that $$$ doesn't get you the nomination (just ask Romney).
Secondly, closing that gap shows he *did* something effective. Whether he can win or not is not relevant at this point.
Only if he loses the state by 15 points or more will your argument make any sense. And I doubt that will happen.
But in 24 hours, we will know.
April 22, 2008 12:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Only if he loses the state by 15 points or more will your argument make any sense. And I doubt that will happen."
Based on....your opinion? Yeah, that's authoritative. Look, the fact is, Obama's an amazing politician. Were he not, he would not have made it this far.
If Clinton wins this thing by 6+ points, she'll be able to spin it as a victory, though I think she needs 10+ to consider it a true victory. Obama needs to actually win or come within ~4 points to call it a victory, in which case I (and probably most Clinton supporters and the MSM) will agree.
April 22, 2008 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
1) When Edwards dropped out, most of his support appears to have gone to Obama
2) At the beginning of the year, Obama wasn't that well known. He's been in the news a bit since.
3) Some 'undecideds' have gone to Obama.
I wouldn't read too much into this.
April 21, 2008 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
"When Edwards dropped out, most of his support appears to have gone to Obama"
I know it looks like that from the numbers, but the real story is very different. Around when Edwards dropped out, Hillary's black support dropped way down from 60-70%, whil Barack's shot up to 80-90%, independently of Edwards. The fact that Hillary's overall support went up, suggests that Edwards' support was split between BArack and Hillary, possibly leaning to Hillary initially, and recently moving to Barack.
April 22, 2008 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
He's had more time but I don't know if it was enough or that it is a fair comparison with OH. The Clintons have been campaigning in PA for 15 years. Pretty hard to unseat that built in bias. And it is one of the few remaining states with "machine" politics from the gov to mayors everywhere. If he can hold her to 5 points or under I think it will be a huge win for him.
April 21, 2008 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The more fascinating part is that this happened DESPITE the Wright comments and the small-town comments and the soon to be burgeoning Ayers nonsense. That's amazing.
April 21, 2008 10:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
With all her support in Pennsylvania from the governor and mayors etc. and it being tailor-made demographics for her, and the weeks of dirty campaign tactics she has run against Obama to win, it will be an embarrassment if she wins by less than 12%. Pennsylvania was delivered to her on a platter and she still can't win big? That's just sad! We'll see what Obama does in North Carolina where he has some of those advantages.
April 21, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think anything less than 20% will be embarrassing.
Heh.
April 21, 2008 11:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looking at the polls and averages at pollster.com, Obama was at 13% and was a virtual unknown in Jan. 07.
At the end of '07 he was polling at 15-20%
In the first three months of 2008 he's gone from 15% to his current average of 43%.
If Hillary were the superior candidate, the money and support would have flowed in her direction. Instead it did the opposite. She started off as the presumptive nominee, but blew it through mismanagement, and a lack of appeal to a large segment of the population.
If Barack didn't possess the superior message, he wouldn't be where he is right now. Hillary has been riding Bill's coattails for along time, and convinced herself that they were her own, but the longer this has gone on, the more we see of Hillary's limitations.
Bill did have a legacy, but Hillary has cashed out all of the equity, and the Clinton bubble has burst.
April 21, 2008 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not forget how she outspent him at the beginning of the campaign when her coffers were flush from all her rich donors and his small donations hadn't started to add up yet. Why didn't she nail it then? People love Obama, that's why.
April 21, 2008 10:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary is spending money she doesn't have, hence her $10 million in debt accrues in the last 30 days. If she had more money, she would spend it.
I love that her supporters are complaining about Obama outspending her, that he's "buying" the election. That's bullshit, 1,370,963 of us are buying this election.
We've put Obama in charge of our message, and our money, and he has performed impeccably. That's the concept that Hillary's "supporters" have failed to grasp.
April 21, 2008 10:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Make that 1,371,086. I guess the Daily Show appearance inspired another 100+ to make their first donations in the past 30 minutes.
April 21, 2008 11:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
1,371,125
April 21, 2008 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
1,371,195
April 22, 2008 12:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
1,371,370
April 22, 2008 3:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic candidate, is likely going to lose Pennsylvania - maybe by double digits. Why?
What don't Pennsylvanians like about him?
April 21, 2008 11:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess you should have been here for the last four weeks worth of in-depth TPM discussions.
The primary is tomorrow, don't you think it's a little late to be pondering this question?
April 21, 2008 11:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Google "Barrack Obama", then hit the "images" button. Look over the collection of photos. If you are at all perceptive you should have a clue about why many Pennsylvanians don't want him for president.
Then, just take a look to the right-->
That will give you another clue about why many other people in this nation don't want her for president.
April 22, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, Hoppy, I did just that and came up with a bunch of nice photos of Obama looking happy and/or distinguished. I don't get what you're saying, unless you're referring to his being an African-American?.
The ads on the right column change each time you refresh a page, so I'm not sure what Hillary image you are referring to, either, unless it was one of those head-shots where she looks like a psycho-clown blow-up sex doll.
April 22, 2008 1:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary's remark today that "you're rolling the dice with Obama" was just unacceptable unless she can rationally explain how she can win the nomination. If she wins Pennsylvania at less than 15% than the superdelegates need to come out and back Obama. I did a study of how many delegates she will get in Pennsylvania with a 10% win and it's something like eight delegates. That's not anywhere close to what she needs to rationalize staying in the race and continue tearing the party apart.
April 22, 2008 2:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's notable that when we see a poll like this morning's saying 'Hillary up 11 points", many of us who support Barack will squirm. Yet two months ago she was ahead by 33 points, as Gary says above. By any standards, to come from 33 down to 11 down is an achievement for Barack, and when you factor in Hillary's name recognition and political machinery in Pa, and all the demographics well articulated above it is a serious ahcivement, one that reflects his difference and potency as a candidate and the true sense of movement powering him.
That we who support Barack think of -11 as bad this morning is incredible!
April 22, 2008 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is no single reason and looking for one is an exercise in futility. It's like the weather: there is no one thing that makes the weather but a myriad of conditions, including a butterfly fluttering its wings in China.
So the best thing is to look for the reason(s) that encapsulates all the others, and to me it comes down to this: the voters don't like her and they like Obama.
April 22, 2008 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary has lost that huge lead for the very same reason that she has lost huge leads in many other states; people have learned more about her, and the more they learn the less they like her.
Polls have sixty percent of voters, nation wide, not trusting her. That says it all. Very few of those sixty percent of the voters that find her untrustworthy would vote for her over McCain. She would destroy our newly won Congressional Majorities.
April 22, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
What I find most interesting is that the internet has helped us to see how other people might be trying to manipulate us. It was never the case before that we had the long memory of the internet to recall what happened months before, or the long reach to hear about radio inteviews in PA.
The Clinton's haven't grasped this. They still seem to think they can get away with their games. We'll see what the people in PA think.
April 22, 2008 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is Obama suppose to do with the money - not spend it on ads? First time donators (like me) are sending him money because we WANT him to spend more on ads than his opposition. This is how you win an election; get out your message. We live in a society where we are marketed to relentlessly; politicans are no different from products. Like it or not this is how it's done.
April 22, 2008 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting collection of comments. I posted this because I don't hear anyone in the MSM talking about it. To go from a 33 pt lead all the way down to 5-7 is the real narrative here. Especially in Pennsylvania, the new "home state" for the Clintons.
A win in PA. will give Hillary a handful of delegates.
The electability question mark is hanging so clearly over Hillary. Not only is she losing, her negatives are higher than ever.
How does a candidate who has no path to victory convince every news organization, every pundit, and every blogger that the narrative to report on is OBAMA'S electability?
The Clintons has successfully sold this narrative to everyone with a pulse.
They stated a month ago that what they had to do was make Obama seem unelectable.
Why has reality been left out of the discourse of this election?
And how can we do a better job keeping it in?
April 22, 2008 6:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
no amount of ad budget or canvassing is going to get hardcore bigots to vote for a black guy, period. Just like in Kentucky - he could spend a hundred million in ad money and not a single good old boy is going to cast a vote for him.
Frankly, I think Clinton's memo today saying "With all those advantages how come he can't close the deal?" is her trotting out her racial dogwhistle again with "He can't win" with the whisper of "because he's black" behind it. And that is the meaning behind "working class whites" - they are talking about Archie Bunker.
April 22, 2008 6:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Because the percentage left to her are the number of angry women who are willing to go down with the female captain of the ship - no matter what!
April 22, 2008 9:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Yes we can" is now "Yes we will"
Barry-O is now toast
April 22, 2008 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
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