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Hillary Clinton's Poll Numbers Are Collapsing
It’s time for the media (and some people here on TPM) to start putting the poll numbers in
perspective for the average voter/reader.
What the numbers are this week
as opposed to last week is only part of the story. The real story
is where they were just after Clinton’s “big win” on March 5th and
how much they have changed since then.
At the beginning of March Clinton was nearly 20 points ahead in PA. In North Carolina, Obama was ahead by just under 5.
Thing have changed dramatically.
Pennsylvania
SurveyUSA finally has a new poll from Pennsylvania up (which is slow but steady):
Date C O
4/1/08: (53 – 41) C+12
3/11/08: (55 – 36) C+19
As does Rasmussen:
Support for Clinton slipped from 52% early in March, to 51% in mid-month, 49% a week ago, and 47% today. During that same time frame, support for Obama has increased from 37% to 42%. ...
Date C O
4/1/08 (47 – 42) C+5
3/24/08 (49 – 39) C+10
3/13/08 (51 – 38) C+13
3/6/08 (52 – 37) C+15
North Carolina:Pubic Policy Polling has their new poll out in N.C. (and Obama’s huge lead last week was NOT an outlier):
Date C O
3/31/08 (36 – 54) O+18
3/25/08 (34 – 55) O+21
3/5/08 (43 – 47) O+4
It's ALL about trends.
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