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GALLUP DAILY TRACKING: The "Bleeding" is over (O 47%; C 45%)
The so-called "bleeding" has stop (and started to swing back toward Obama). The damage was minimal. The number are on their way up again.
From Gallup:
PRINCETON, NJPersonally, the daily tracking ins national and nationally, people are paying the same kind of attention that people in PA are.
-- The peeling away of national Democratic support for Barack Obama
seen this past week may have run its course. After trailing Hillary
Clinton by one percentage point in Saturday's Gallup Poll Daily
tracking report, Obama now leads Clinton by two points, 47% to 45%.
Of course nationally they're reacting to 30-second sound bites and being influenced by the onslaught of corp. media trying to take Obama down.
What we saw in the drop was the initial debates reaction (how could
people not be swayed by ALL Obama's "issues" (such are they were) being thrown at him in one
viewing. And now, we're seeing the reactions to the uproar and analysis
of the debate, which gave people license to be angry with the media
instead.
In PA, they're focusing on the race with a very different eye.
See, now can we get back to some positive thinking?
;-)
Oh, and here's a prediction (Greg pay special attention):
I think Obama might just win PA.Those who worked in Ohio who are no in PA say there is something VERY different going on here. The choices of canvassing, ads, etc. Rumors that lean towards truth are Internals look MUCH better than the typical pollsters and that' why the choices of actions here in PA are very different than Ohio.
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Comments (14)
My prediction is that Obama will lose PA by single digits. Hillary the Comeback Kid will immediately proceed to spin this as a major victory, when in reality it'll just mean she'll be deeper in the hole.
April 20, 2008 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
IF so, it will be low single digits. Def. less than 5, more like 1-3. But I think he might pull of a win by 1-2 points.
Remember, 1 month ago she was 20 - 25 points ahead and was talking about winning it on that spread as well?
LOL.
I'd still be able to live with him keeping her under an 8 point win, though the spin on that would not end this before N.C. & Indiana.
April 20, 2008 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't see her leaving the race before NC and IN if she wins by anything.
But the inevitability will start to sink in. Voters in NC and IN will be anxious to get on to beating McCain.
My fervent hope is that the people of PA will want the same thing, but it's dicey.
There are still a lot of undecideds. Undecideds respond to last minute campaigning, and she's covering the air waves and robo calls full of shit. So who knows?
I'm still keeping my expectations low and I'm prepared for anything.
April 20, 2008 3:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you're right -- if Hillary wins by single digits -- her spin will mean nothing. I don't care what Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough say -- the race will be damn near over.
She has to win by 15% or better to make a difference.
The party is getting tired; the supers are getting tired. We can now conclude that all she will do is throw more and more mud and damage the party. Yes I know -- we've been saying this for weeks. But there was a tipping point this week -- her penchant for destruction is so obvious and so dangerous to the party's chances, I believe we'll see more than a steady trickle of supers, like we've been seeing. It will become a strong stream. Her money will dry up. She will be marginalized.
Anything 10% or under.
April 20, 2008 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Joshua:
I agree with you on this one. The final margin will probably be somewhere between a 4 pt. CLINTON win and a 3 pt. OBAMA win.
In either event, it is irrelevant, since OBAMA will erase her tiny delegate gains in North Carolina and Indiana. By early May his delegate lead will be even wider - and with the final Texas counts arriving, she will have to made to realize that she has ZERO CHACE of being the nominee.
April 20, 2008 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pundits have been saying that anything less than 10 points would be a symbolic win for Obama. But if she gets more than 7 or 8 she will spin it as a big victory. Even if she eeks out only a very small victory 'a win is a win' will apply. Texas was a win even though Obama pulled out more delegates. Just after the race there it was spin as a pretty big victory for her.
I'm hoping for a spread of 4 or less if she wins. It would be just marvelous if he could pull off an upset there. But I'm not going to predict a win, I did that for TX and was dissapointed because his streak was broken.
He sure can close a gap! It just shows how much people like him once they get to know him. She is familiar so he has to compete with that.
April 20, 2008 2:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh, even if Obama wins, I can just see the spin from the Clintonites. He outspent us four to one and only managed to win by three points? That is a definitive proof that Obama is unelectable!
April 20, 2008 2:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
A couple of points here:
*To go from an 11-point lead to a 1-point deficit is bleeding, whether you'd like to acknowledge it or not. Obama may have reversed the bleeding for now, but the 2-point lead he now holds is certainly within the margin of error, so it's not as if the numbers are on their way up, as you assume.
*Clinton the Comeback Kid CAN spin a single-digits victory as a win, since of course it IS a win, and since Obama has spent $10 million on ads compared to her $4 million. The Clinton camp makes an accurate claim: Obama is going all-out in an attempt to put Clinton out of the race, but he just can't close the deal, and if he can't win over enough voters even with such financial advantages, there's a problem.
P.S. Don't be deceived by these polls. Clinton is showing a 4-6 pt lead in most polls, but you'll notice they leave ~9 percent undecided. Expect 70% of those to break for Clinton at the end, as they did in Ohio, and except a 8-12 pt victory for her here. Certainly not the 20-pt lead she had a month ago, but she's holding up extremely well against a talented politician with practically unlimited resources.
April 20, 2008 3:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
She blew a 20-point lead. He may have money; she has the entire PA machine behind her. Institutional support counts as much as money.
That being said, I would not be surprised if the undecideds break for her in big numbers. If you're undecided, you're going to go with the "safe" choice.
The way this campaign has gone, we'll have the muddy waters of an 11, 12% win for Hillary -- not enough for her to gain the nomination, not enough to end the race.
But I'm ever hopeful. Boots on the ground say it feels a lot different than Ohio. And let's remember: TX and OH were the beginning of the kitchen sink strategy. Since then we've seen Bosnia-Gate, her unfavorables soar.
Anything under 10%, I'm happy. Anything under 8% and I'm doing a big ol' happy dance.
April 20, 2008 4:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's very unfair to say she blew a 20-point lead. In what way? What exactly (or even in broad terms) did Hillary DO to blow her lead? Or is it perhaps merely the fact that Obama is a formidable politician, has millions more at his disposal, etc. that accounts for the narrowing in the polls. I think this is the case, and I don't find any evidence to support your position.
April 20, 2008 4:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
You are right: Obama blew her lead!
April 20, 2008 5:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lookingin-
I agree. Obama is an excellent politician, and I do not think anything Clinton did in the weeks leading up to PA (other than Bosnia, which doesn't seem to be a game-changing event) was particularly harmful to her. I think people just get to know Obama and end up supporting him.
My parents live in Texas. He dwindled a 20-pt lead there to 3-pts in the end. They complained that they couldn't turn on the TV without seeing an Obama ad, but they are not political so I don't know how it effected their opinion.
Either way, when you're bombarded with ads for one candidate, it's going to usually make you consider that candidate. Obama's $10 million investment in PA is huge, so I don't think it's just "spin" if Clinton claims a moderate single digit win as a true victory.
Regardless, I'm predicting that she'll end up winning by 8-12 pts because of the large number of undecideds that are likely to go for her in the end, especially with Obama's poor debate performance and the issues of the past month.
April 20, 2008 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if I buy the late-deciders break for Clinton theory in PA.
In Ohio and Texas, yes, they broke for Clinton. But Obama was being hit with an extremely damaging news story about Goolsbee and NAFTA. Now that the dust has settled, the story has been shown to be mostly false, but we didn't know that on election day. If I had been an undecided voter in Ohio, I probably would have made the same choice.
There's nothing comparable right now. If Clinton had any good dirt on Obama, she would have gotten it into the news cycle late last week. She hasn't.
April 20, 2008 5:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most undecided this late in the game go for the new guy/gal.
Ohio & Texas were anomalies simply becuase of the last minute hits Obama took over NAFTA -- which was pushed hard by Clinton, knowing full well her own history.
In PA's case, undecideds are going to be left just to Clinton's manipulations. It's why you see these 2 news last minutes ads with Obama taking a more direct aim at her lies, door to door meet & greets, as well as whistle stop train tours through the heart of PA.
This isn't Ohio and like I said the debate hasn't affected him here or in NC or IN.
They're paying a little more attention to the details than the 30 second sound bites the rest of the country is catching flipping channels.
April 20, 2008 8:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
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