Reader Posts
« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Excellent News for Hillary from the CNN Delegate Calculator!!!
According to the CNN Delegate Calculator tool, if Hillary wins every remaining state by the margin she won Pennsylvania by last night, she will only need 68% of the remaining superdelegates to steal, er, I mean clinch the nomination.
You go girl! Feel the Hillmentum!
Of course, not to be a wet blanket, but that tool is kind of a blunt instrument in that it awards delegates based on total votes in a state whereas delegates are acually awarded by congressional district. And, it is true that more delegates are allocated to districts where the voters have shown a tendency to actually vote for Democrats, and Hillary's had a problem winning in those districts.
But still, let'snot let silly ol' mathematical realities rain on her well deserved parade. Yay Hillary!














Comments (39)
You know, I can understand why Obama supporters would find it tough to vote for her after this primary campaign. Her going negative, and all. However, I can't understand the animosity HRC supporters are developing towards Obama. Racists excepted, of course. What's the deal with their avowed refusal to support him in the general over McCain? Weird.
April 23, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
The vitriol on this site towards Hillary is palpable. Her supporters are mocked, cursed, jeered, ignored, and booed. From Obama's supporters. And then you wonder why Obama's 'enlightenment' hasn't caught up to them yet. Keep belittling the very people whose support you'll need in the fall. That's the sure-fire way to Dukakis 2008.
April 23, 2008 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I really disagree. I began watching the Primary race around December or so, looking at the build up and such and on sites like CNN, Newsweek and Politico, the Hillary supporters + racists were at Obama from the start. This would partake in more side chatter, because no one knew if Obama would really put a dent in her campaign. But since it has been just them 2, if you actually read the comments(on this site) and others, the level of negativity is coming from the Hillary camp by far.
Like for instance:
Gross negativity is siting "but his name is Hussein!! Ill never vote for him" which is what alot of folks, albeit ignorant, have said.
In the same light, I havent seen anyone bring up Monica and her Husband. Inwhich if we did, it would be seen as a heavy negative thing to do.
April 23, 2008 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
That's right. I think there's something ovian about this. You use ugly smear tactics, and to top it off, you pre-emptively blame the other side for going ugly.
April 23, 2008 3:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is the exact thing thats going on in this primary race.
I am not blaming Mrs. Clinton.
I am just stating the facts of how I perceived once I began following the race.
How did I "preemptively" blame the other side? I posted AFTER he did and decided on what i was going to say after I read his. I dont think ive posted a blog on her talking about "fuck Hillary", or anything. That is just juvenile...and im bigger than that.
In all honesty, my only concern is Obama.
Hillary supporters need to grow up, be concerned with Hillary, dont worry about the other side.
wtf r u talking about?
April 24, 2008 12:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
wow.
I edited this before I posted and the old one still got put up.
hmph.
Didnt know TPM suffered from Time Lapses.
April 24, 2008 12:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Jonathan, you're right, and it's exactly the stuff that makes me nuts when I read it. Before Obama became a serious contender, Clinton's supporters mocked and debased him to no end. When he started winning, rather than take him seriously, they turned up the volume.
April 23, 2008 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is Alex's key point and worth considering very seriously. Why do we need to engage in finger pointing and raising as common behavior the worst supporters' discourteous and ad hominem posts? Both sides need to get over it! If there's a belief that some HRC supporters are truly racist then is there any chance of winning them over to Obama? Doubtful... so focus on those who call Obama an empty suit, or say he lacks experience, or have some other principled reason to support HRC and make the substantive case to bring them to vote for Obama in the fall.
NCSteve's point is made: Obama will be the nominee. Time to bring all Dems around to Obama and cut the offputting intra-party slams that are making independents doubt the wisdom of voting Obama.
April 24, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Vitriol? Cold hard mathematical reality is vitriol? Or is it my snark? Sorry, for the snark but childish nihilism--which is all that her campaign is, at this point in light of the hard math--doesn't exactly bring out the best in me. And neither do people who enable it.
April 23, 2008 3:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Whoops. To the extent I thought you were talking about my post, disregard. I mistook where the top of the thread was.
But the rest of it still applies . . . simple childish nihilism.
April 23, 2008 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, the thing is this: sane people support Obama. So Hillary supporters are received correspondingly.
April 24, 2008 11:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
So you blame Obama for the trolls who claim to support him? Should we do the converse fo Sen Clinton?
April 24, 2008 11:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, consider that in exit polls of PA the majority (~53% or thereabouts) said they believed Obama would win the nomination. So in a back of the envelope evaluation almost 1 in 5 Clinton supporters don't think she'll win but voted for her anyway.
It could be that the Clinton supporters who say they'll vote McCain before Obama are motivated by defensiveness: they know their candidate can't win and it's frustrating for them. One way to ignore the inevitability of the Obama win is to say you won't vote for him.
April 23, 2008 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry, more like 1 in 6 Clinton supporters.
April 23, 2008 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
(1) In that order?
(2) GFYWAIR, m'tard
(3) LOLOLOLOLOL
(4)
(5) BOO!!!!
April 24, 2008 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
no rejecting and denouncing? no rebuking and reviling? no repudiating and objecting? Oh those poor Hillary supporters....
April 24, 2008 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Jade7243 feels that rejecting, denouncing, rebuking, reviling, repudiating and objecting are stronger than mocking, cursing, jeering, ignoring, and booing, then I would reject, denounce, rebuke, revile, repudiate, and object. And I would boo again for good measure.
April 24, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
But which margin are you using? 8%, 8.5%, 9.2%, 9.4%, or 10%? I think I've seen all of these numbers floating around.
April 23, 2008 2:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
I was generous and gave her the 10% in every state.
Okay, actually it wasn't generosity as much as lack of fine motor control. Those slidey bar things they use are really hard to control at the one percent level.
April 23, 2008 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sending the Tuzla Terror $100 today,and would suggest all clinton supporters do the same,how else will she pay for Mark Penn's victory brunch?
April 23, 2008 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary supporters seem to bear the frustration of her doomed candidacy. My recollection from early on is that everything was nicey, nice until Obama began to gain significant support.
For Clinton supporters, the only POSSIBLE explanation was that we all just HAD to be under hypnosis. We must be cultists (Sheesh, what arrogance!) It just COULDN'T have anything to do with our exercising personal judgment. Well, things got progressively nastier between support groups after that.
April 23, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is that what you remember? My own memories run quite to the opposite. Clinton supporters on this blog were unspeakably rude (at least to me) when I first entered the fray in these parts, and this place was altogether chummy compared to other blogs on which I (briefly) participated. I have been regularly appalled by the boorish behavior of some of my fellow Obama supporters, but the protestations of folks like AlexVA above, while accurate in my estimation, seem rather like only half the story to my eye. Both sides would do well to exercise more restraint and act more like grown-ups than is presently the case.
April 24, 2008 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Same. January was particularly ugly. With Edwards supporters in the mix too. The biggest difference now is that there are proportionally many more Obama supporters vs. Clinton supporters.
Will I deplore the boorish behavior as well (except the mocking, I like the mocking), I'm a bit sick of the whining. It seems like hardly a thread goes by without a least one whiny comment about mean and dismissive Obama supporters, not to mention the many posts on the subject.
If someone is being an asshole, then call them out on it. If I see it and agree, I'll chime in to support you. But these broad, "Why is everybody always picking on me?", denunciations of Obama supporters are wearisome. I've got particularly little sympathy for someone who posts one on an NC Steve thread. NC Steve is a cool, smart, and respectful dude. If you can't handle a little snark from him, you need thicker skin.
April 24, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Genghis, HRC supporters who read the daily character assassinations on their candidate have reason to be annoyed. Dunno how you define "whiny", but the point is sound: some Obama supporters are just vicious in going after Clinton and sometimes after her supporters. (That's not taking into account the posts of trolls like Gotalife, who deserve the harsh reaction they seem to seek). Worse, Obama supporters can be a defensive lot. I have been repeatedly slammed by some when trying to make a point that's pro-Clinton, regardless that my overall take is strongly pro-Obama and that I state such just about every time I say something in defense of Clinton. Calling out the boorish BS every time it's wielded isn't going to help, it will probably make matters worse.
Those that have an anti-Clinton axe to grind have been doing so for weeks on end, over and over. Why not give it a rest and not put other Obama supporters in a position to have to call it out? It's bad enough we have a venomous intra-party spat going on, but to go to the next level, infighting within the Obama camp, is about the worst it can get. The behavior of a minority of mean-spirited and impulsive Obama supporters is the perfect justification for those on the other side who are calling the Obama campaign hypocritical for running on a call for a new kind of politics.
Bottom line, to me, Obama supporters could be less defensive, tone done the anti-Clinton rhetoric and just ignore the less reasoned posts by Clinton supporters. I'm 99% sure Obama will get the nomination. So what's the point of continuing the intra-party warfare??
April 24, 2008 12:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
If someone is being an asshole, then call them out on it.
Easy to say on the Internet. (That's a call out.)
Winners can be gracious.
April 24, 2008 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, my people I'm looking forward to not hearing from post last night was not exactly a profile in high-mindedness, but it was fun. And truthful.
April 24, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, taking the part of the posting critic, I don't see anything objectionable in either this post or in the other one you referenced, Steve. Sarcasm in itself isn't the issue, to me at least. I just see no place for outright attacks on Hillary Clinton or her supporters. I'm not reading that in this post, nor do I think AlexVA was referring to your post specifically, but in regards to "vitriol" as a pattern among Obama supporters here.
April 24, 2008 3:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Calculators are for sissies
April 24, 2008 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sissies who blow the top out of the curve. Buy a better calculator. = Get a better grade.
April 24, 2008 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I think they (her supporters) feel the same sense of entitlement that she and Bill so obviously feel. They're therefore shocked (SHOCKED!) that she hasn't just been friggin coronated.
FWIW, I was sort of for Hillary at the outset. She was the best of the candidates that I saw having a realistic chance and I'd always thought the Clintons were OK up to that point. And Obama really didn't impress me in the early debates. It wasn't until the Jefferson Jackson speech in Iowa that I really started to think he might be for real. Then he won Iowa and I was on board, but still far from anti-Clinton. Then South Carolina happened. Then the rest of their smear campaign happened. At this point, I can't imagine voting for Hillary for ANYTHING in any election. I'm sure I'd probably calm down if she managed to somehow win it fair and square (although I don't see how that's still possible) and vote for her in the general. But if she somehow manages to steal it or to slime Obama beyond recognition with her Rovian tactics, I'm not at all sure I could.
Just to let you Hillary supporters know, I didn't hate Hillary until VERY RECENTLY. She made this happen the old fashioned way. She EARNED it!
BTW, my wife still supports her but she doesn't follow this stuff very closely and she has no idea of the stuff that's gone down. And really isn't very interested. That's how she stays in it.
April 24, 2008 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that disengaged voters like your wife, and people who believe that we win by being just as unprincipaled as the GOP was make up the lions share if Hillary's support. If she lost the votes of those who have not seen the unprincipaled BS and those who relish it she would have no support left.
April 24, 2008 11:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only Clinton supporters I can't interact well with are the ones who slam Obama for silly reasons. They are few and far between in the real world, though.
I don't much like Obama supporters who gloat and slam Clinton excessively, either.
My sister is a Clinton supporter (married to an Obama supporter), as is my dad, and one of my neighbors. We each support the other's choice to some degree and realize that we'll vote for whomever wins the nomination. Just not McCain. That was the vibe at the caucus and rally I went to also. Democratic unity...not fighting.
I think the comments on the internet are especially harsh and childish from both sides, and don't accurately reflect reality. They certainly don't reflect the personalities of Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama.
I am really dismayed by Hillary's campaign of late, and I struggle to understand her continuing support in light of the delegate numbers. I worry about another "stolen" or unresolved election.
With all the bitterness and worry aside, though? Clinton would make a good president. I can see that. I would never say to my friends or family, "how could you have voted for HER??" It's obvious. She's a very strong candidate.
I just think Obama is a better...if unexpected...choice and he will be able to make a difference.
April 24, 2008 11:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Not to piggy-back on NC's post, but I just coincidentally recently posted a point on this: "Why CAN'T Sen. Clinton Win?"
April 24, 2008 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I posted a long, less snarky, comment and hit "recommend." It's kind of incestuous, but, hey, I'm from mountain stock.
April 24, 2008 2:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR HILLARY!!!
April 24, 2008 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think that the sense of inevitability and Hillary's long (over a year) frontrunner status - she was WAY AHEAD for a LONG LONG TIME - give her supporters a sense of security that is shocking to lose. I know I would have felt shocked, if I had been supporting Clinton. It is tough to lose that. But I too remember the derisive "empty suit" comments and "inexperienced" sneers and the Somali turban picture which the Clinton campaign still refuses to acknowledge giving to Drudge. So while I understand the sense of shock and dismay of Clinton supporters, there is little question that they have crossed the "vitriol threshold."
April 24, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
As an Obama supporter to a Clinton supporter, I will enjoy supporting the Democrats in the fall and I hope that you will too!!!
Is this respectful enough?
April 24, 2008 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you! I feel so, so . . . validated!
April 24, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ummm, that was supposed to post to Idiotic's endorsement.
April 24, 2008 2:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment