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election math
Does anyone have a prediction or done the math on how the contests have to break for Obama to get to 2024 without anymore supers?
He needs an additional 378 per MSNBC delegate count. What percentages in the next few contests would he have to win in order to get there, and conversely what would the numbers be for hillary to get.
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Comments (9)
It seems I saw something a while back that said Obama would need 95% and Clinton would find it impossible. I could be wrong but I think that's what I remember. Basically they both need more delegates before they have to look at percentages of SD.
April 15, 2008 4:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems I saw something a while back that said Obama would need 95% and Clinton would find it impossible. I could be wrong but I think that's what I remember. Basically they both need more delegates before they have to look at percentages of SD.
April 15, 2008 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
CNN's got a delegate calculator now, like Slate's, where you can game it out yourself. Far more entertaining that Soduku.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/29/delegate.counter/index.html
April 15, 2008 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html
according to dcw
obama would need 385/566 = 68%
clinton would need 522/566 = 92%
both numbers are a little high as there are about 70 automatic supers left to be assigned with obama a slight favorite in that set.
April 15, 2008 4:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
another way to look at it.
assume 50/50 of voter (and aud) delegates in remaining contests. then they need the following supers:
obama 2024-(1639+318) = 67
clinton 2024-(1502+318) = 204
(also according to dcw. you can add at least 6 delegates to the voter delegate winner)
April 15, 2008 4:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Storm's numbers fit my running total, and confirm that it really isn't going to be settled by pledged delegates alone.
The remaining total of pledged and supers is 871.
For Obama to get 385/871 means 44% of the remaining.
For Clinton to get 522/871 means 59% of the remaining.
I love seeing the numbers written out.
Getting 60% in Pennsylvania is Clinton's bare minimum to have a fighting chance.
April 15, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Are you accounting for the "add-on" delegates in that? Those are also in Obama's favor because he's won more states.
If the remaining states break roughly 50/50 for pledged delegates, then Hillary needs 90% of the remaining superdelegates to win.
April 15, 2008 5:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
In honor of Barney Frank's advice that the "trailing candidate" needs to get out of the race after the primary, I'll add another number.
What does Clinton need to tie Obama in pledged delegates?
She needs 366/568, or 65% of the remaining pledged delegates.
April 15, 2008 5:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's throw a flag on this play. Advantage..Obama!
April 15, 2008 9:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
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