Reader Posts
« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
EARLY EXIT POLL NOT GOOD NEWS FOR HILLARY...C52 O48
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/22/pennsylvania-exit-polls-p_n_98069.html
If it remains this close, hillary can pack it up and gracefully offer herself as a VP candidate.
Advertisement
Comments (9)
Don't believe it.
April 22, 2008 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Seriously don't believe it. The early exit polls from Mass. on Feb. 5 had Obama leading Clinton by 5. He lost by 15.
Don't believe these.
April 22, 2008 6:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Appreciate that your on top of the early exit polls but I think they're as misleading as the entry polls.
April 22, 2008 6:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know it's too early for these to mean anything, so these exit polls have no influence on my prediction for tonight.
My prediction is an Obama upset, very close though.
April 22, 2008 6:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
LisB:
Last week I predicted a final result anywhere from H by 4 to O by 3 in an upset.
More bad news for Hillary:
1. the newly registered Democrats are breaking VERY strongly for Obama - and there were over 800,000of them.
2. The number of 'last minute deciders' is only 23% - the lowest of any primary to date, most likely because of the unrelenting 6-week orgy of campaigning they had to endure.
These variables favor Obama to keep the margin fairly low - or even pull off an upset.
April 22, 2008 6:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hence my use of the qualifier 'if'......
April 22, 2008 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wolfson was just on MSNBC and he was spinning expectations down in a big way, emphasizing the "a win's a win" line. As we get closer to the polls closing, I find that increasingly interesting. But we'll see . . .
April 22, 2008 6:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, no. A win is a win... unless Obama wins. In that case, anything short of a 50% margin is just a further proof of his unelectability.
April 22, 2008 7:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Don't trust exits!!!!
But this is interesting from CNN:
"Fifty-eight percent of those voters said they chose the New York senator. That includes voters who made up their mind in the aftermath of last week's heated Democratic debate."
That is a few points shy of Ohio's 20s margin of undecideds.
With an avg of 8 undecideds in most of the polls, and a margin of 5 or 6 for Clinton, if she gets 58% of the undecideds that's like 5 extra pts. = 10 or 11.
So Hillary might win by 11. Brace yourself.
April 22, 2008 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment