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Does The Democratic Party Want Black Voters?
Rep Clyburn of South Carolina reports that the Hillary Clinton campaign has a
problem with Black voters. The perception is that Clinton is race-baiting. Many
Blacks feel that since Clinton can't win, she is trying to damage Obama so much
that the Superdelegates will give their support to Clinton. The other effect of
the Clinton strategy is to make Obama so damaged that he will not be able to
beat McCain if he survives to the
General Election. Clinton will then be
the frontrunner for 2012 after a one-term McCain Presidency.
Many African-Americans are dismayed. Blacks supported Bill Clinton during the Monica
scandal. We were his firewall. The behavior of the Clinton campaign is felt to
be the ultimate insult. Following Clinton, we were strong supporters of Al Gore
and John Kerry. The support was so strong that about 90% of the
African-American vote went to the Democratic Presidential candidate.
The only voices raised in objection to the size of the African-American vote
going to the Democratic Party came from Conservatives in the GOP. Repeated
arguments were made that African-Americans were being taken for granted by
Democrats. All Democrats loved the high percentage of Black support, until the support went to Barack Obama. Now African-Americans are voting only based on
race. The Conservative warning seems to have a kernel of truth.
The Conservative voices were muted by
the fact that the GOP had become the
home of the Dixiecrats, Barry Goldwater's States Rights and the Southern
Strategy. Blacks, who had been strong members of the Party of Lincoln
prior to the arrival of the Dixiecrats, were ushered out of the GOP so that
Republicans could gain favor in the South.
Parts of the Democratic Party did not welcome Blacks with open arms. LBJ relied
on Northern Democrats and the GOP which was mainly Northern and Eastern to pass
the Civil Rights Bill. Southern Democrats were resistant.
Fannie Lou Hamer and the Mississippi Freedom Party are names well known to
Black voters. The group was formed in opposition to a racist Mississippi
Democratic Party. We had to fight our way into the blocked doors of the
Southern part of the Democratic Party.
Simultaneously, as Blacks moved from the Democratic South to the North, they
found easier entry into the Northern Democratic Party. We represented votes.
It is important to note that Affirmative Action was ushered in by Richard Nixon
and African-American Conservative Arthur Fletcher. As the Republicans sought to
gain Southern votes, Blacks became a lower priority. Eventually, the GOP became
more hostile. The new GOP destroyed Nixon's Affirmative Action.
Blacks became expendable to the GOP. Black Americans were depicted as an
American threat. The Willie Horton ad appeared in limited release, but it's
effect was powerful. MSM helped spread the message. We had achieved the
attention of the GOP. The message, get out.
The Democratic Party is now at a crossroads. There appear to be some pockets of
voters who will not vote for an African-American candidate. There are pockets
who will not vote for a female candidate. Blacks represent 10-12% of the
country. White women represent 51% of the population. Calculations are being
made. Obama did not win in Ohio or Pennsylvania. There is concern
that Obama can't close the deal in large states. Do Primary loses mean General
Election loses? Will the Primary rules set down by the Democratic Party
be changed to give Hillary a victory?
African-Americans sense some race-baiting behavior coming from the Clinton
campaign. Clinton is running a Karl Rove campaign. Clyburn's observations will most likely be dismissed by a large
segment of White Democrats.
There is a concern among African-Americans that once again a political party
will find us expendable. The party hierarchy may decide to throw us under the
bus in an appeal to Independents and "Reagan Democrats". This is a
scenario that we know all too well. Been there done that.
The final question is do Democrats want African-Americans?
Is it imperative that the Clinton campaign forcefully address concerns of
African-American Democrats? Will we only hear dismissive comments from Clinton
and her surrogates. Is it time for Senator Clinton to give her own speech on
race?
Are African-American concerns going to be taken seriously?
Is the party going to work to keep our votes?







Comments (14)
There will be reconciliations after we have a nominee; each will have to court the others' base of support.
April 25, 2008 11:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Btw, it's not only black voters that think Hillary is burning Obama's bridges so he doesn't have a shot with McCain in the general.
April 26, 2008 12:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Short answer: They'd rather not because,let's face it, most of America would rather not have black people. Anyone who disagrees hasn't been paying attention.
April 26, 2008 1:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama can not convince white working class voters as the nominee, he will lose to McCain. If Clinton cannot win a large majority of black voters, she will lose to McCain. Clinton deliberately alienated black voters since South Carolina. Obama has courted white working class voters but they still prefer Clinton.
Mrs. Clinton's strategy to damage Obama so much that he would lose to McCain and she could run again in 2012 has made the Republican's job much easier in 2008. Much much easier. This has made a Republican victory in November a near certainty. I hope Democrats remember her role in this in 4 years. She chose to ally herself with Republicans despite the fact that he brought massive new voters to the Democratic party, out organized, out fund-raised and went far less negative than she did. Clinton selfishness is legendary but it is becoming a liabilty to Democrats.
April 26, 2008 1:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton does not want our votes. The Democratic Party, however, does. That's part of the reason that, ever since white Democrats noticed the Clintons' race-baiting, Obama has won ~80 superdels whereas Clinton has gained no more than 5.
April 26, 2008 1:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shouldn't the super delegates stop this gratuitous blood-letting by the Clinton campaign. They have to understand that if the first African-American to get the majority of pledged delegates is denied the nomination the Democratic Party will become immersed in a battle royale. Hillary is now a Ralph Nader within the party. Her candidacy, at this point, is nothing but that of a spoiler regardless of the fact that she was a strong candidate. Now she's in the gutter and the supers need to act like the party leaders they are supposed to be and end this by letting her know that they will be voting for Obama at the convention. What possibly is gained by further delay?
April 26, 2008 1:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Forget all the racial posturing. If Clinton becomes the nominee, how many voters will Democrats lose, either by not voting or by voting for McCain? And, by comparison, how many other Democrats will vote for McCain if Obama gets the nomination. I think any careful analysis will show that the party loses many more with Obama. This doesn't need any racial or gender labels, it is simply a matter of votes. The Democratic party will lose with Obama.
Matthew
http://www.TheProblemWithObama.com
April 26, 2008 2:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's contrary to every poll done on the subject, Matt. But I think you know that deep down, when reality creeps into your small, scary world.
April 26, 2008 3:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Good question, Matthew.
Black voters represent a third of the Democratic base, the largest and most loyal voting bloc in the party. No Democrat has made it to the White House without their energized support in over 40 years. And yet somehow you think that if the party flips them off and nominates the loser, rather than "give" the nomination to the candidate who has earned it, who just happens to be the first black candidate for the presidency with broad support, this will be the election that bucks the trend?
Elaborate for all of us how Hillary, with her sky-high negatives and unique ability to turn out the wingnut base to vote against her, expects to win with 20 - 25% of the Democratic base sitting home on election day.
April 26, 2008 3:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think:
Clinton loses a big chunk of the Black base. She loses the bulk of the Independent vote to McCain. She gets virtually no crossover Republican votes. Her only hope is that the remaining core Democrats who have not been alienated by her campaign will turn out in record numbers -- her entire strategy will have to focus on a massive GOTV effort. The Republican GOTV effort will also be massive, and will focus on conservative Clinton Derangement Syndrome. Can she win this way? Maybe, but it'll be tough.
Obama has problems with a portion of the traditional base, too. It's not going to be easy for either one. The Republicans aren't in love with McCain, but they'll line up for him -- particularly if Clinton is the nominee.
April 26, 2008 3:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
there seems to be a good deal of posturing and threatening here. of course the democrats want black votes, the clintons want them, believe it or not. however, since obama is getting practically all black votes, what the heck do you suppose clinton should do? oh, i know, give up, quit, go home, leave the playing field cause she cannot win, in the estimation of a solid bloc of voters who all happen to be black. uh, seems like you might have more than a tad of presumptiveness going here, the campaign is clearly not over, all the comments by talking heads notwithstanding.
the clintons always cultivated the black electorate...fools, how could they realize that none of that mattered, as long as it became a race thing, well, they are white, its not much of contest.
the bitter irony of those of us in the boomer generation who support civil rights, we find we just dont get it, and we find that practically any attack on obama can be seen by somebody somewhere as racist, we are marginalized, treated as defective racists by folks who ought to know better.
making threats and blustering is not a sign of confidence. all this vitriol seems more pronounced the weaker obama performs
how long has it been since obama won a primary..not a caucus, but a real vote? is that all the fault of the mean, racist clintons? what a cartoonish view of the world.
racism exists, it walks the land, but lumping together folks who have stood for equal rights for a long time with the real racists, well, that pisses me off too.
perhaps i will get mad and threaten not to vote for obama if he runs against satan..perhaps if i shut my eyes and pretend i could convince myself of the scenario..
in other words, dont be like the gop books about liberals under your bed, do not portray a racist under every bed
April 26, 2008 6:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
She doesn't want black votes. She doesn't want votes from the left. She doesn't want the anti-obliterate Iran vote. She doesn't want the small state vote. She doesn't want the anti-gun vote. She doesn't want the anti-free trade vote. She's not much interested in the civil liberties vote, the Muslim or other scary foreign looking vote.....
We could have a thread on all the voters she doesn't want. So far she's a hit with the Catholic working class vote but after McCain has told them 10 million times that he's the pro-life candidate and their bishops remind them of the same.... what vote is she really going to get?
April 26, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
blackflag - I don't think the Clintons are racists, though these continued statements that have come out of the campaign and its surrogates have not helped that perception. Between "Jesse Jackson won South Carolina twice" and "insignificant states", the unfortunate message the campaign has put out there is that somehow, those states that went for Obama in a big way somehow should count for less because, well, those states have large black populations and that's what put him over the top. I'm sorry, but that's the inescapable conclusion those kind of comments lead to, particularly when Hillary has based her whole "electability" argument on this idea that only she can win larger states where black voters don't make up as large a part of the population. That's her argument, not mine, and that's how it plays to me so I can only imagine how it plays to people who are black. Essentially, Hillary is telling superdelegates that the preference of older white women should carry more weight than that of black voters - that her core constituency is the one that should matter more.
I don't think she's making the argument because she's a racist; she's making the argument because it's the only one she can make as to why she should be the nominee, given that she's lost the race on pledged delegates, number of states, and popular vote (at least thus far). But here's the rub: though blacks and white women (of all ages) make up roughly equal portions of the Democratic base, guess which constituency has been the most loyal to the Democrats? Not white women, who in large numbers deserted Democrats in elections in 1980, 84, 88, 2000, and 2004. Black voters have been the single most loyal voting bloc in the party for 40 years, and let's face it, that loyalty has not brought them a whole lot in the way of big rewards, even when the party was in power.
So now that we have come down to a "who gets thrown under the bus" moment, it becomes hard to make an argument that the party should suck up to its more fair-weather friends (white women) at the expense of its most loyal supporters, or to explain how the party could do so without looking racist. If the party isn't even going to honor the preference of black voters for the candidate of their choice, who has won by every metric (to date), it's hard to make a compelling argument as to why black voters should support the party. Under such circumstances, the old unspoken Democratic argument of "you have to vote for us, because the other guys are open racists" just doesn't seem to hold a lot of water and certainly doesn't constitute a compelling reason for strongly supporting the party in this election or future ones.
And as for Hillary's "I'm only saying what the Republicans will be saying in November" argument in the smear-by-association attacks, we should get ready for the heavy repitition of the old Republican saw about Democrats keeping blacks on the liberal plantation if the nomination is handed to Hillary by the superdelegates. And unfortunately, we'll have no good answer to it, because it will be true - the black base will have once again been treated as a group to whom we need to pay little attention, because "who else are they gonna vote for?"
So, whether it pisses you off or not, that's where it stands. I can't say for sure that large numbers of blacks would sit out the election if the supers handed the nomination to Hillary...but I can say, if I was a black Obama supporter, I would, for all the factual reasons outlined above. I'm frankly amazed by the Hillary supporters who seem to have adopted the position that somehow the party is unfairly being held hostage by the desires of black voters, when the candidate of their choice has won a hard-fought and legitimate lead in the race for the nomination under the party's own rules. This isn't a bone that's being thrown to black voters - it's a legitimate victory. If that victory is stripped on the basis of specious arguments about "electability" that rest on the presumption that older white women are a more important constituency than blacks, it's hard to see how there wouldn't be major negative fallout for the party in November.
April 26, 2008 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks to bluebell and JennOfArk. You have both elaborated what I wanted to get across.
_blackflag
I think one problem that we have in discussions is that we hide behind a code word (racist) rather than truly addressing an issue to avoid the point of contention.
Clyburn notes a problem in perception. I tried to detail from a historical standpoint that African-American voters have seen hostility arise from both political parties. Older voters have seen this in their lifetimes.
The rumblings that Clyburn details are real. Responding to it by saying that you are being called a racist avoids the point. I have had many African-Americans who knew Hillary from her days in Arkansas ask in amazement in why Sen Clinton can't stop the crap coming from her campaign.
I tried to detail from a historical standpoint that the GOP through States Rights and the Southern Strategy made the GOP uncomfortable for African-Americans. I also noted that the Democrats in some places did not welcome Blacks with open arms. Both parties have held Black voters at arm's length at some point in their history.
I am am signaling a warning. If you view it as a threat and respond by saying that Democrats should work with Hispanic, Asians, and the working class to gain a majority, then that is your right.
This was a question posed to Democratic Party and the Clinton campaign. Choices to abandon Blacks were made by both parties on cold political calculations.
The party can ignore the perception of African-Americans. Sen Clinton can continue to address this problem in sound bites. We can sweep this under the rug just like we have with the crumbling infrastructure of the US. When a support structure collapses within the party, don't say that Clyburn didn't issue a warning.
April 26, 2008 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
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