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Could Clinton win this way?
A while back, TPM posted a detailed description of the process by which the rules committee for the convention would be selected, and the likelihood that Obama would come in with a majority of members, and thus have a good shot at controlling the outcome over whether and how MI and FL delegates would or wouldn't be seated. (Clinton and Obama would seat members essentially based on the proportion of delegates they came in with, plus a few thrown in by Dean)
Here's the thing, I've heard recently that the rules of the convention carry over from the previous convention until new rules are adopted. So, the catch is this, the new rules would be decided by delegates earned in ALL states, including FL and MI, because the old rules which allow MI and FL to be included still apply. That would give Clinton quite a bit more seats on the rules committee, yes?
But this scenario is only possible if my assumption is correct, that MI and Fl are counted before the rules committee is assembled. Can anyone answer this question?
Comments (2)
I think the rules include a credentials committee that would determine who gets seated. I'm not sure who is on the credentials committee or how they are appointed, but I don't think there is any danger of your scenario happening.
What will happen is the seating question will go to the floor and will be the first test of the super delegates. If they vote to seat FL or MI, it means a majority of delegates supports Clinton. The rest is just playing it out.
April 24, 2008 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
So, what you're saying is that the credentials committee is what I was calling the rules committee, and they propose a rule change that gets sent to the delegates for a vote, right?
Now, as I understand it, the credentials committee is formed by the candidates selecting members proportional to the number of delegates they have. Plus, Dean gets to throw a few in. They make a rule change, and then the delegates vote to approve, yes?
So, now there's two problems instead of one. IF the old rules exist prior to the rule change, that means MI and FL delegates are still on the floor, and still being included in the count that determines how many credentials committee members each candidate gets to seat.
You get my point, right? If FL and MI are in the mix prior to the rule change - which makes sense because the rule to exclude them hasn't been adopted - then a.) Clinton has a good shot at stacking the committee in her favor which would prevent the rules from ever being presented, or, b.) if Dean has enough committee members to help Obama to push the rules through the committee, then once it gets to the floor, how could we expect MI & FL delegations to vote themselves off the floor?
Of course, the procedures could be different than this, but from what I've heard, putting the pieces together, this is what it looks like to me.
April 24, 2008 7:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
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