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Clinton Does NOT Lead Even Counting MI and FL
This is very dangerous and needs to be put to rest right now. Several people are now making the claim that Clinton leads if you count the votes from MI and FL.
This is false.
First of all, the numbers are not there. More about that in a moment. The votes are not going to be counted. MI and FL broke the rules they themselves had voted for in order to disenfranchise the other 48 states and to benefit themselves. MI and FL will, ultimately, only get a 50/50 split in the Convention.
Anyway. In FL, Clinton got 105 delegates, Obama got 67.
In MI (where people could not even vote for Obama because he was not on the ballot), Clinton got 73 votes. Uncommitted got 55, so I will just use that as shorthand for Obama (I think it is fair: if there was a new primary, Obama would WIN Michigan according to polling data. Hell, even if we assume they tie MI, it is still better for Obama than the number I am using.)
Clinton is currently behind by 150 delegates including superdelegates (actually a bit more but no need to be stingy here.)
So using an extremely generous calculation, Clinton gains 105 + 73 = 182 delegates and Obama gains 67 + 55 = 122 delegates.
Net gain for Clinton is 182 - 122 = 60 delegates.
150 - 60 = 90.
Hillary Clinton loses.













Comments (4)
Damnit, cut off.
I will not repeat the calculation but for the ever-popular "popular vote" metric, Obama currently has a lead conservatively estimating at about 1,5 MILLION votes (Clinton always forgets to count those caucus voters, tsk tsk.)
Clinton gains about 450,000 votes from FL and MI over Obama.
Needless to say, 1,500,000 - 450,000 does not equal Clinton coming out on top.
Hillary Clinton loses.
April 23, 2008 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. People are acting as if many states in the union just disappeared.
Is there a list of the caucus states?
April 23, 2008 4:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why conservatively estimated? Some website actually counted the votes instead of just guessing. Why not just count the votes?
April 23, 2008 5:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
YOUR MATH SUCKS!
Sir your are entitled to your opinon but not your math!
Thank you softboy
A. Einstein (math wizkid)
p.s. now go make me a sandwich
April 24, 2008 2:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
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