Reader Posts
« previous | TPM CAFÉ READER POSTS HOME | next »
Clinton Did Not Cross the Threshold in PA
With 99% of the vote counted in Pennsylvania, the NY Times is showing a Clinton lead of 9.4%. With only 7 counties not reporting 100%, and all but one of those already at 98 or 99%, it's looking like Obama will pick up an additional net 2,000 votes when all the ballots are counted. Adding that to the totals at 99%, Clinton will garner 54.6% to Obama's 45.4%, a 9.2% spread in favor Clinton.
Is it picking nits to look at the slight percentage difference above or below 9.5% that could round up to a 10% spread? No, there is a clear psychological threshold at the 10% margin. Clinton cannot claim a double-digit victory. And Obama can point to the long-stated expectation by his campaign that getting within 10 points of Clinton in PA would be considered a victory, given the demographics of the state.
We can certainly concede that Clinton won Pennsylvania. But we should not concede that she triumphed, or that she scored a significant victory. Her net delegate pickup will make no significant difference in the race, leaving Obama in commanding lead in the delegate count. And her pick-up of 200,000 popular votes will not bring her anywhere near as close as she needs to come to claim a popular vote mandate.
Congratulations Senator Clinton, on your less than convincing victory.
Comments (6)
Exactly. Well, I bet Clinton supporters can't be bothered with decimals. 'Coz middle school is only for the elitists.
April 23, 2008 1:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Condescending remarks are change we can believe in!
April 23, 2008 1:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, Customer0012, condescending remarks are change that Hillary Clinton can xerox. But she doe not have to, because she already owns the original - her "change" is "more of the same".
April 23, 2008 7:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Only a day or two ago, the crowing was about a 15 point victory, so even 10 was nothing to crow about.
Now it might be 9 points. She still can't catch him in pledged delegates.
April 23, 2008 1:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, based on the more recent numbers, the spread is going to be something like 8.4%. (The current numbers show 8.4% -- the few areas remaining out are all expected to favor Obama). Not even *close* to 10.
April 23, 2008 4:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why can't Clinton "close the deal?" :-)
Thanks for this info.
April 23, 2008 5:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Post a Comment