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Because Y'all Want to Talk about Rev. Wright
Since so many Obama supporters seem bound and determined to continue talking about Rev. Wright, perhaps because of some imagined orchestrations between Sen Clinton's campaign and certain segments of the media or due to the mischaracterizations by talking heads of what Greg Sargent had to report: I'm going to revisit the issue with my second post on the subject and I'm going to expand upon one of my comments to DF's enlightened post, Tuesday night.
1) As Josh noted on Wednesday, it isn't clear from Greg's interview with Harold Ickes, whether it's the Clinton campaign or some superdelegates who are broaching the subject in their discussions.
I'm going to take the position that I'm sure both campaigns have had to address the issue. I'm sure some superdelegates have asked the Obama people, how they're going to handle it in the fall or maybe the campaign is having to reassure some fence-sitters that it's a non-issue. And, I'm equally sure that the topic of Hillary's negatives, Ken Starr's investigations and the possibility of winning back the Obama voters are also coming-up in some conversations between superdelegates and both campaigns.
It's the job of a superdelegate to consider all of these factors and though there are some who might be making up their minds on the issues and those who have an idea of which way they may go, there's also some who would naturally want to consider the politics of the game.
2) The topic is almost a hundred percent guaranteed to be raised again.
I don't listen to talk radio, but I wouldn't be surprised if some bloviating blowhards don't already have snippets or isolated phrases carded for bumpers or to use as punctuation. I'm also pretty certain that if Don Imus was still a factor, he'd have his impersonator recording comedy bits, much as "Al Sharpton" and "Cardinal O'Connor" had regular segments on his show.
The sermon snippets that we've already heard from the Reverend seem well-suited for a drive-by commercial, but I'd expect them not to start playing until late in the fall, if ever and then only in targeted markets or on specialized cable stations.
More toward the beginning, my money would be on a 527 quietly sending mailers to targeted addresses in sort of a geographic swath from Tallahassee (FL) to Lake Charles (LA), basically following the I-10 corridor and I'd expect pockets to be sent toward south-central Tennessee, spilling-over into northern Georgia and Alabama and maybe even into central Pennsylvania, along with parts of Ohio and the Michigan upper peninsula.
3) In response to DF's post, womanofacertainage pointed out that if such a campaign were to come to light, Sen. McCain would publicly "reject and denounce it".
I don't doubt that this is true, but such a pronouncement from the McCain campaign would probably help their candidate with independent voters. After all, a 527 is forbidden by law from coordinating their actions with the official campaign and they can not take direction from it. They could bend to the candidate's wishes, if they choose, but at its heart, the movement using Rev. Wright as a wedge wouldn't be so much pro-McCain, rather it'd be more of an anti-Obama. Sen. McCain could disavow it until the cows come home, the independents would think that he's a good guy and it'd help temper some of the voter motivation that would result, if this racist tactic becomes known.
4) As for the more national aspects of the Rev. Wright issue, I wouldn't expect a lot until October and then it'll mostly be noisy talking heads who'll be employing the clips as part of the "national conversation on race" or as a way to call Sen. Obama's judgment into question.
The repetition of the clips are going to have an effect on certain elements of the electorate, but they're most likely not going to vote for a Democrat in the first place. To me, the larger issue of "judgment" appears to be the most damaging, especially since it'll come on the heels of an extended argument over policy and lots of references to Vietnam.
In a nutshell, reportedly the Senator and the Reverend had conversations about the need for some distancing; In response to other posts, I've linked to a fifteen month-old wire story which painted the Reverend as a radical and about a year ago, "Tucker" did his second show on the subject. Among my reasons for providing these links were to say that Sen. Obama has had plenty of time to prepare for the inevitable questions and he's darn lucky (or one hell of a tactician), the story didn't break before Super Tuesday or much earlier in the campaign.
There will be times as President that he's going to have to play one group against another or distance himself from someone or something for political gain. The same will be true in diplomacy: there are some things that we can do or say about Taiwan and other things that we can not. How Obama plays the issue of his friend and how he explains his thinking can lessen the impact of the damage and though his supporters may be loathe to admit it, but I feel that he may have gotten an inadvertent assist from Sen. Clinton, when she explained her response to the question from Richard Mellon Scaife.
DF was right with the crux of his Tuesday night post and because the issue will not be going away: if Obama is to become the nominee, as Democrats, we should not only lay the groundwork, but we should also be prepared.












Comments (11)
ho hum
April 3, 2008 8:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
not a big deal
April 3, 2008 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
If Obama had gotten an "assist" from Richard Mellon Scaiff, I wouldn't be bragging about it, I'd try to fade it.
This is supposed to appeal to liberals and Democrats?
It appeals to me about as much as Rove's endorsement of her 3AM ads.
April 3, 2008 11:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
I thought the "assist" would need further explanation, but the post was long enough, so I decided to wait to see if I'm asked.
In her press conference statement, Hillary made reference to her and Barack's comments about the Imus-Rutgers situation. If you actually go back and read some of Obama's quotes about Imus' remarks, you'd see that most of them don't really apply and perhaps further explanation about how the two situations are different could help him with some voters.
Though, I still see that he may be somewhat vulnerable, even after his explanations because the situation called for distance and he reportedly recognized that fact, but when push came to shove, he didn't provide enough. Perhaps this situation can also be finessed and I have a few suggestions, but I don't know that it can totally go away before it comes back again.
April 3, 2008 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't agree that he didn't provide 'enough distance.' There are plenty of people who would argue that he should not distance himself from his dear friend and old mentor, and I am one of them.
The wiser distinction which he made was that he didn't agree with some of the 'offensive' language his friend used. Thus his human loyalty remained intact which is a good thing.
He seems to be playing it very well indeed, and I am not worried or concerned that this 'issue' actually can be very damaging against him except perhaps with those already disinclined to support him anyway.
Of course there's no harm in trying to be as well prepared as possible for any challenges. But Obama and his team have my confidence there.
April 3, 2008 6:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
If it were me, I think I would've highlighted more of the "church is larger than just one person angle" and though it'd be hard to phrase without throwing his friend under the bus, but there's probably some kind of analogy that could be inoffensively drawn between the Roman Catholic Church, the American version and some of their more well-publicized problems with specific individuals.
I still haven't figured-out how thia can be done by the candidate without risking Catholic votes, but I don't know why others couldn't make the claim without his support.
Otherwise, the "distancing" question is sort of up to each individual. You feel that he provided enough distance and not only do I not care what his preachers says, I'd actually prefer that the candidate didn't belong to a church.
But, when you look at it through our history with the Irish Nationalists and Britain, Taiwan and China, the Palestinians and Israel, or the fact that he might agree with some eco-terrorist group in this country, but can't endorse their methods: the ability to create the perception of "distance" and have it believable to people to whom it may be important should take on a new meaning.
April 3, 2008 6:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
PS) This post wasn't written to "appeal" to anyone. It's my analysis of what to expect the Republicans to do and if the Obama camp lays the proper groundwork and if the Democrats are prepared, then their effect could be minimized.
For example, the targeted mailers to certain groups of voters will be designed to whip them into a frenzy in targeted states, so that their turnout might help counteract motivated voters on the Obama side. If we watch for them and if we double our efforts among Democratic blocs, then whatever small percentages that the Dems could increase might possibly keep some states in play.
April 3, 2008 4:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good analysis!
I also think that McCain will denounce the unofficial campaign, and that that will help him. However, I think it will simultaneously hurt Obama with the same voters that will appreciate McCain's denunciations.
But, to blithely claim that most of those voters would not have voted Democrat anyway is a big mistake. I believe that many of those voters are predisposed to vote for the kind of change that the Democrats will present.
And, I think that that group of voters is larger than we want to believe it is. I'm not saying that Clinton doesn't have her own problems if she is our nominee.
But, what I AM saying is that we HAVE to look at this situation with all the objectivity we can muster, and determine which fine Democratic candidate is best-prepared to be President and which candidate is best-situated to WIN the Presidency. I HOPE that one candidate is the answer to both of those questions, and that we nominate and elect him or her; if not, then we will HAVE to work doubly-hard to get the nominee elected.
April 3, 2008 11:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps that part did come out funny.
What I mean is that there's a certain element who are not going to vote for a Dem and simple, plain-old repetition of the clips is just going to make them more fervent in their anti-Obamaism. Thankfully a lot of these people aren't actually registered to vote, but because many hold positions with some authority, their jokes and lies are going to be heard by many who are and could still have some effect.
April 3, 2008 4:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Obama seems to me to be much more able to explain himself to us than Hillary is. And he seems able to use just this kind of thing as another good opportunity to do so. He is the winner!
Obama demonstrates his leadership abilities as he fends off such hopeless sorry attacks. And his attackers then only look that much more miserable and mean.
Maybe a few will be easily messed up in the garbage, but they probly still ardently follow BushCo into the big putrid pit.
April 3, 2008 5:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can see that his explanations have seemed to have done the trick among Democrats, but the concept of inevitability and closing ranks behind the most likely nominee has probably also been helpful.
And, it appears that there was mostly a temporary blip in the polls of all likely voters, but they're usually defined as having voted in the last election and it's not coming on the heels of an issue-based argument which will most likely cut into his numbers at the time.
In my response to DF and in my previous post, I made reference to Rove's trick of last minute targeting of some evangelical voters. According to the media, a lot of the focus was on those in the Florida panhandle and they contributed to Kerry losing the Florida vote. Kerry was well ahead in the polls prior to the election and the exit polls made it look like his victory was going to be a walk, but there was no way that targeted pockets could've been factored into equation and though he should've won, Kerry lost.
April 3, 2008 7:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
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