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Barack's Dilemma: The potential consequence of an Indiana loss (Hypothetically speaking, of course).
Ok, this may be somewhat out there but here goes. In my opinion, and in the opinion of most posters here, Barack is the nominee. Most of us cannot really see the party snatching the nomination away after he fought off the Clinton Machine to win the most pledged delegates, the most popular votes, and the most states. Well, what if the loss of the nomination isn't really the consequence of losing Indiana. What if losing Indiana or NC means he no longer has the freedom to choose his own VP running mate. Basically, those in the smoke-filled backroom have told him that if he loses he may have to offer Hillary the VP slot.
If he wins NC and Indiana, he will have shown that he can capture his his already strong coalition and that he has made inroads with Hillary's formidable coalition. However, if he loses either or both, it may tend to show that Hillary has at least held her coalition, if not made inroads with his coalition, and could theoretically be strong vs McCain.
I belive that this is at least possible. It is possible that Hillary would not accept. I do think Barack is the nominee no matter what, but I fail to see why she would be running so hard if she knew that she is already out in the cold. I do not see her running for nothing at all. She is running for something and it is not the nomination. It could be the whole 2012 thing but I think she trampled that dream quite some time ago with her questionable tactics against a fellow dem. This is her last chance to get into the White house and I think she is running so that she cannot be denied the #2 slot.
Anyway, let me know what you think.
Comments (18)
Obama will lose in Indiana. He will not choose or be coerced to accept Clinton to be VP, however.
April 27, 2008 1:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Won't happen. Here in Chicago an army has already been amassed. Indiana is just a short drive folks and they've been our next door neighbors for quite a while now. He'll win by overwhelming margins. You can take it to the bank.
Clinton's dreams of the nomination end in Indiana. Mark the time and date, I called it.
April 27, 2008 2:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
That gives me hope. I was kind of thinking she would take Indiana as well.
April 27, 2008 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've always thought it was as simple as getting back Bill's $5 million loan. When they both privately realized they could not win (circa just two weeks or so before OH & TX), the campaign did not have the funds to pay it back. So they have to keep the campaign going in the hopes that enough donations can come in to make up the deficit. Hence, the ever changing goal post narrative- must win OH & TX, then PA, now IN in addition to other arguments about MI and FL delegates- and whatever talking points that can be feed to the media to make it seem that she still has a chance ("a tight race") and more donations as a result. The bonus in this plan is that something might actually turn up to get her the nomination.
April 27, 2008 2:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
The only way Obama can be pressured to take on HRC as running mate against his will is if the Clintons had some way to deny him the nomination. It's not like they have the leverage to get the SDs to vote for Obama only if he accepts her as running mate. We aren't hearing any murmurs from the Party or the undeclared SDs that the two candidates should really run together. To the contrary, Pelosi has been ruling it out for a while now.
All the signals are pointing to a clear Obama win and he has in no way shown a willingness to take her on as a VP. So I think it's just not a possibility, personally.
April 27, 2008 3:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't think anybody could force Obama to choose Hillary. He said that the most important consideration in his Veep choice is that they share the same philosophies about how to heal America. Insider Clintons do not and can not share the position that Big Money, Lobbyists, PAC's and other special interests are a huge part of the reason why our government doesn't help our people.
My own thought is that it would be a bad idea to be the one living thing that stood between Hill and the presidency. MSNBC comments link below lists 47 people who were close associates of the Clintons and who are now dead---including 12 young men who were their personal body guards, multiple suicides (how does a suicide shoot themselves in the back of the head or die of decapitation?) and more unexplained air plane crashes then seems reasonable for one couple to know. Here's the link: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/25/947650.aspx#comments
April 27, 2008 4:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
you think it is "possible" clinton could win in indiana? i would say its likely. please, the polls, spare me the polls, the polls and the exit polls for the last primary were all over the map, some of them were right, perhaps fortuitously.
if you do not think the national spectacle of hillary beating obama despite being outspent by tons is not resonating with the public, dream on dude, the tide is against obama, with clinton
i would worry about north carolina if i were you folks, it could be much closer than you think...but, do not let me disturb the revelry and pre-nomination celebratory party
April 27, 2008 5:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
What "tide"? Clinton won Pennsylvania by a relatively small margin despite it being the Rodham homestate and right next door to the state she represents. It should have been a blowout, and yet she netted a measly 10 delegates.
April 27, 2008 6:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
oh the delegate count, this is what you busy yourself with. of course all the odds lined up for hillary, like being outspent in saturation ads 4-1...and all her negatives and stuff..
erosion has set in, obama seems to have disappeared, its hillary out there actually campaigning on the ground, treating these folks in middle america like oddities...but at least he can play hoops. like wow
April 27, 2008 6:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Since we're speculating, Obama will win Indiana. It's also ironic how he will win. Republican women. You have not seen vitriol until you mention the name Hillary Clinton within earshot of a Republican woman in Indiana. Indiana has a lot of Republicans. Indiana is an open primary. No operation chaos here. These women would sooner gnaw their arm off than vote for her, but would gladly line-up on a spring day to think they were somehow personally driving a stake through her candidacy. They don't want to take the chance of not being able to do it in November.
April 27, 2008 7:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's strange. Texas Republican women did just he opposite. Faced with the spectre of an Obama Presidency, they swarmed for Clinton. Maybe Indiana Republican women are different. Or maybe you're indulging in some wishful thinking.
April 27, 2008 7:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are correct on all counts. Indiana Republican women are different. And as I stated it was speculation, based on anecdotal experience...and my indugence of wishful thinking.
April 27, 2008 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
North Carolina Republican women are the same way, the difference being its a closed primary and most of them would rather gnaw off an arm than register Democrat, even for a day. Republican men, sure, if Rush told 'em to, but not the women.
That's the good news for Hillary in NC. The bad news is that Democratic
The good news for all of us is that, in the last three years, they've taken to saying "Bush" that way too.
April 27, 2008 9:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, WTF? This time I know for a fact it truncated a chunk of my text after the html tag. Here's what it was supposed to say (sans html):
North Carolina Republican women are the same way, the difference being its a closed primary and most of them would rather gnaw off an arm than register Democrat, even for a day. Republican men, sure, if Rush told 'em to, but not the women.
That's the good news for Hillary in NC. The bad news is that Democratic
The good news for all of us is that, in the last three years, they've taken to saying "Bush" that way too.
April 27, 2008 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's interesting that Obama's going on Fox (airing shortly), which I believe is his strategy to attract those GOP crossover votes in Indiana. While Hillary claims her "Big State" theory is the way to win the GE, Obama's "crossover" theory is his claim. She has NO crossover appeal.
So suddenly he's on Fox. And I hope he's right about this! I'd love to see the Indiana exit polls tell us he drew in lots of crossovers, as THAT would really help to put her candidacy to rest once and for all.
April 27, 2008 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
May 6 is a big day. I hope it the end of the close the deal diatribe.
April 27, 2008 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Indiana could go either way.
As for Clinton as VP, that would negate Obama's candidacy.
April 27, 2008 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
This has been the core question in this primary season.
I know Hillary must have acknowledged long ago that she probably lost the nomination absent a major fall from Obama. But, I can not help wondering why she has adopted a strategy that has little possibility of benefiting her in the span of the primary season. The strategy of recurring negatively loaded codes are intended to build Obama's negatives, but requires employing multiple memes to recur and reinforce each other over the long term.
What Hillary is doing is bizarre - on the one hand she is doing Obama a favor by putting these crazy issues out there before the general, but I can't help see her gaming this strategy to no positive end for the Democrats. Again BIZARRE.
It is a kind of very aggressive whisper campaign and it can be very damaging - Eluding again and again to a family of coded memes. In this campaign Hillary has chosen "Religious Intolerance" (whether it is about a Muslim Identity or Rev Wright), "Racial Intolerance", "Nationalism", and now cultural "Elitism".
Now, she has partnered with scaife, the very same opinion-maker, and billionaire, who hounded her and Bill in the 90's with scum, to scum Obama. To what positive end?
I can not help but wonder if she is intentionally setting this up for a Republican 527 campaign to continue the dirty work against Obama, while allowing McCain to build a positive image for himself in the general?
Is there a possibility that she will join McCain on the GOP ticket as some suggest?
McCain had a mix-ticket strategy in 2004 when he petitioned Kerry for the VP spot. I would like to hear what others think about whether McCain and Hillary would adopt the same strategy this season?
April 27, 2008 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
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