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Another Obama upside from the PA debate = NC early voting
Someone asked in another thread "Why was Obama in North Carolina today (Thursday) when the PA primary is 5 days away?" I've pulled out part of my overly long answer to that original question below, because I think Obama has a smart long-term strategy in North Carolina. But in thinking long-term, I managed to miss the completely <i>obvious</i> short-term reason that he was in Raleigh on the day after the PA debate: early voting in NC opened yesterday, 4/17.
This year marks a new form of early voting for North Carolina, which they are calling "one stop." Voters can not only <i>vote</i> early absentee at any of the early polling places, but they can now <i>register or update registrations</i>, as well. So even though the official deadline for voter registration in NC was April 11, if you are willing to vote away from your home voting precinct (by, for example, going to the town hall instead of that middle school where you would normally vote) then you can still register between April 17 and May 3. Regardless of the registration question, though, early voting is becoming a bigger and bigger deal in NC, and it wouldn't be surprising to see 25% of the votes here cast before our May 6 election day.
So Obama made a very smart move to plan a campaign event here on the first day of "one stop voting," and if his campaign picked the 4/16 debate date, then I give them even bigger props. They may not have gotten an NC debate, but they got the next best thing. I know a lot of people in the traditional media think Obama fared poorly in that debate, but reactions down here seemed to say otherwise. And the post-debate "bump" could certainly galvanize a large early-voter turnout for Obama in NC. I would be shocked in Hillary's debate performance helped her here in anyway, but I definitely don't think it was the kind of inspiring, "let's go vote tomorrow" turn that would help her with NC early voting.
In the end, though, I think Obama's NC strategy is as much about the general election as it is about the primary. He could win this primary without ever setting foot in the state. But the time he's putting in now is also looking ahead toward the general, because he has a very real chance to turn North Carolina blue in the fall. Part of winning the state in the general comes from having contested it well in the primary - showing that it's worth his time to campaign here, that he's not just taking it for granted, that he's laying the groundwork for a longer term base of operations. And by fighting for a state he's already bound to win by a large margin, he's getting lots of local media exposure, lots of free press, lots of time for folks to get to know him. All the while, McCain hasn't seemed to realize that NC exists, because why would he have to worry about winning a "red state"?
So even though it seems like the primary season is interminable, it's important to remember that the Obama campaign is intelligently - if quietly - working toward the general already.
Comments (7)
this is my first blog post here. why are the tags all messed up? I mean, I knew that commenting here is screwy, but I didn't expect my post to look all like crap. any way I can fix it?
April 18, 2008 5:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Can't fix anything after the fact. When posting a blog you have to use their editing tools (next time you do it, you'll note a series of buttons above the box you enter it into), but when posting a comment, you can use HTML. Many people have already commented on how insane it is that these methods are so different. Just take comfort in the fact that you're definitely not alone.
April 18, 2008 6:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
thanks. I saw the wysiwyg buttons, but was foolish enough to believe the "you may use HTML tags" promise. You'd think I'd see through a line like that, but I guess I'm a hopeless oldschool tagging romantic.
April 18, 2008 10:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Early voting isn't new in North Carolina. We have had it for several years.
What IS new is that now you can register to vote during the early voting period.
The Obama campaign's advertisments on when, where and how to vote in North Carolina supercede any efforts by the NC State Board of Elections or any advocacy group in the state.
The ads you see on this website for example, which easily guide and encourage people to vote and help them know when and where to go - are out standing.
This type of smarts and efficiency is a theme of the Obama campaign.
For more on voting in NC, see www.ncvoter.net
April 18, 2008 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
yes, that's what I was trying to say. The "one stop" process is new, not the early voting in and of itself. But it does make a difference that people can continue to register throughout the early voting period. This basically means that the NC primary is open for new registrants until May 3. I don't know how much this might change dynamics, given that we've already seen huge numbers of new registrations, but it is a large window of opportunity for an organized campaign like Obama's.
One thing to note, though: while any qualified voter can file a new registration or amend an out-of-date one (i.e., update address, etc.) during the "one stop" period, you can't change party affiliation during this time. So there isn't any room for a late-brewing "Operation Chaos" type maneuver. I think the NC legislature did quite well in figuring out these changes to the early voting procedures.
April 18, 2008 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
Re: blog - I do wish there was a way to edit posts. Not to complain, but it would be nice.
"So even though it seems like the primary season is interminable, it's important to remember that the Obama campaign is intelligently - if quietly - working toward the general already"
Good point. I think Obama's success in the GE will hinge on the groudn game. And he's got a lot of time to work on it now. But I'm glad they are starting early. I think it will be a benefit of the long primary (defying CW) that they are doing a lot of events and commercials all over the country and most importantly registering a lot of new voters.
April 18, 2008 9:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
That's how I keep consoling myself, at any rate. :-) Obama's building his ground game. And there is good evidence that it will pay off. When you look as far back as Iowa, which seems like 2 lifetimes ago, the benefits are still there. Obama seems likely to win Iowa, whereas Clinton wouldn't. The number of unexpectedly close "red" states at this point is a testament to Obama's early ground game and primary work - and frankly, I can't wait to see some of the surprises that the general election is going to yield.
April 18, 2008 10:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
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