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African American Backlash?
Here's an interesting proposition: what if the SD's give the nomination to Clinton even though Obama leads in all metrics. In November, will African Americans sit on their hands and stay home....
....or will they turn out in record numbers to vote <B>against</b> the Democrat party 1) for disenfranchising them in massive numbers; 2) for taking them for granted; and 3) to stick it to Clinton for spite? Consider, not only would they vote against Clinton but also against every downticket Democrat as a message that betrayal is not something that goes down easy for people who've been jerked around for hundreds of years.
Think it couldn't / wouldn't happen? Why or why not?













Comments (34)
What shade of black paint you requested?
But, different flavors have long been available!
Give it a break, the larger danger is the broad based support of new participants and independents that have been attracted largely by Obama. They are not party specific folks nor have the history of long term Democratic folks. The Clintons are toast to much of the electorate, and yes, black folks are a part of the electorate.
Current narrative driven stuff, real(Clyburn) or created by the MSM or Clinton will pass; the question is how best to stop the madness ASAP.
April 29, 2008 11:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I beg to differ: if African American ("black" is a color, not an ethnicity) support for Obama took on massive proportions after the perceived race card play by the Clintons after SC, there is a possibility of an equally massive reaction to a perceived play of the race card by the SD's. Why would African Americans "let it pass" when the excuses from the SD's amount to "well, he was just to 'black' to be electible"? (what else does "not able to win over white middle class voters" mean?)
As for new participants and independents: a lot of the are African Americans who never saw much point in playing because the Dems always take them for granted and the Republicans had nothing to promise in the first place.
If coalescing behind Obama was a statement in ethnicity, these same people may have something else to say if you take away their candidate.
April 29, 2008 12:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
BIGGER STRETCH THAN JAY-Z'S LIMO
The surge of AA voters is race based. When Barry is on the sidelines they will retreat to the exact numbers as before his laugh off.
Hide and See
HOPE CHANGE does not mean Tee Ball with Farrakhan on the White House lawn.
April 29, 2008 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
On "a statement in ethnicity".....
The above is the problem with your line of thought as in what does "a statement of ethnicity" means; more specifically how would you apply this construct to Jindal in Louisiana. Race, color, ethnicity or the Republican best hope in Louisiana.
With respect to black folks, boradly it is as simple as Obama is believed to be the superior candidate and in large part generational as in it is time to move on(not chronological age)! To the extent that unfairness is in the process, the question is then one of double standards, and ,yes, black folks have a keen awareness of double standards in the American Experience.
I do not dispute that some merit in within your argument, but after listening to this for a half a century it is a bit stale; to the extent that black folks have commonalities it is much more textured, and interwoven in the larger society that your remarks suggest.
April 29, 2008 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I don't disagree with your statement about textures within the African American community, I suggest that an ethnic reaction against the Dems (however improbable) is nonetheless possible.
By "statement of ethnicity," I mean something along these lines. It takes into account the 80 - 90% support that Obama is receiving from African Americans and it is based on the premise that African Americans are voting as an ethnic group now and may do so again in November if the SD's overide them and everyone else who voted for Obama in the primaries.
April 29, 2008 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Newsweek says that 40% of African Americans don't plan on voting for Hillary if she pulls off the nomination through super delegates rather than by winning fairly. I know that for me personally, I plan on voting downticket and hope for a democratic majority to contain John McCain. At this point, I don't really see the difference between her and certain Republicans.
April 29, 2008 12:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
If this nomination is stolen from Obama then I will never vote for the Democratic Party again. The truth is, economically my interests are probably better suited by the Republican Party and both parties have shown themselves to be remarkably incompetent in getting ANYTHING accomplished in the past 8 years. But what I refuse to do is support a bunch of racist pigs. From now on, every individual has to earn my vote regardless of party, but Clinton will NEVER get my vote.
April 29, 2008 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
From what I've been hearing, you're not alone in that decision.
April 29, 2008 12:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt they would vote for McCain. More likely they would just not turn out, which would spell doom for Hillary Clinton. No way she can win OH, PA and MI without large turnouts from the African American community.
April 29, 2008 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd go beyond the African American community with that.
A lot of people would just not turn out. It's not a question of protest votes for McCain it's about the lack of enthusiasm from our side.
Our voters would simply lose interest.
April 29, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
From what I'm hearing from friends and family, thanks largely to me and my emails in January, no one will vote for Hillary if she gets the nomination. I've told them all to vote downticket races, but to leave her spot empty. I think that will be a powerful message. If Clinton got 12% of the black vote, McCain got 2%, but downticket races newly elected Democratic candidates received +30% of the black vote.
But don't worry about black voters voting for McCain. We're not part of the that bloc who'd vote for McCain to spite the Clinton's. From what I see, the supposed Democrats who'd vote for McCain instead of Obama are just being bigots. They say, "Obama scares me." but when you push, considering that on paper, the candidates are almost mirror images and he's just not as hawkish, it's clear that what they're saying is, "Obama scares me because he's black." I firmly believe those people are stuck in the 20th century and are in the Pat "Black people should thank us for slavery" Buchanan camp.
April 29, 2008 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
A DNC superdelegate over-rule nomination for Hillary is a general election win for McCain.
April 29, 2008 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, an interesting proposition, Schmedley. I think AA's would desert the Dem Party en masse. And I'd support such a move. Nothing for nothing.
April 29, 2008 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
So do I. The question is whether or not the Republicans are preparing to welcome them with open arms. Given their past history, I'd say "no." But if the Dems are too intent on winning to not see that they'd be losing a huge chunk of their base, I wonder if the Repubs or any other party might try to capitalize on such a historic defection.
April 29, 2008 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
INFANTS TEND TO HUDDLE
Maturity is now defined as to the threshold of candidate rejection pain.
In other words: WAAAAAAAAAAA!
VOTE YOUR CONSCIENCE
NOT YOUR WHITE GUILTY CONSCIENCE
April 29, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I first read your post, my first thought was that a mass defection could be a healthy development for an eventual, viable, third party.
April 29, 2008 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
It wouldn't surprise me at all to see many African-Americans jump ship. And it wouldn't surprise me to see many, if not most, young voters move to the Green Party or other third-party candidates. The superdelegates have GOT to realize that the voters Obama has brought into this race are in this race for Obama--not for the Democratic nominee.
If Hillary gets the nomination, McCain is president. It's that simple.
April 29, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
That, I can see. Many young voters don't feel they owe the parties any loyalty, unlike their parents (And after watching this year play out, I can't say I blame them. I'd register Independent if it weren't for the fact that it would disqualify me from voting in the PA primaries). Me, I'm on the fence about whether I'll leave her spot blank or not.
April 29, 2008 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why shouldn't it happen?
April 29, 2008 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Only because it would leave the Republicans virtually unchecked. Then we would be a true Banana Republic.
April 29, 2008 12:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Two points.
One, sometimes things need to get worse before they can get better.
Two, it is possible to not vote for Hillary and still vote for downticket Dems. A POTUS can only inflict significant damage when unchecked by Congress (see Bush, early 21st century).
April 29, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, I agree that they can (and probably will) vote for downticket Dems. However when you asked, "Why shouldn't it happen?", I presumed that the "it" referred to my initial premise of African Americans voting against Democrats to send a punitive message. Does your question still stand?
April 29, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Third point - sometimes you just gotta say, I'm not going to take this shit anymore, and screw the consequences. Or else you lose all respect, including self-respect.
April 29, 2008 12:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree here too.
April 29, 2008 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
One other vital point: as Rahm Emmanuel pointed out the other day, the winner needs to win right, or the damage will be done. The ONLY way either of these candidates can get the nomination and win is if his/her opponent willingly concedes. There's GOT to be a gracious concession. If it looks like someone was forced out or cheated out, the Democrats are doomed.
April 29, 2008 12:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
To which I would add that at this point, any kind of concession from Obama would seem forced and insincere.
April 29, 2008 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard Dean said something similar on MTP. He said that whoever loses has the more difficult job of trying to get his/her supporters to go with the party choice.
April 29, 2008 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Clinton gets the nomination, my vote for president ceases to matter. She doesn't stand a chance in my state no matter what, so I will simply write in Obama as a protest.
Once the election is over, I will join up with African Americans and activists and every other group Hillary Clinton has trashed in this campaign, and we will start actively working for a new political party in this country.
This is the Democrats' last chance as far as I'm concerned.
April 29, 2008 12:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a better idea than to not vote, or vote for McCain: Write in Barack's name! Guilt-free voting!
April 29, 2008 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
I spoke with my mother in Ohio and before I could ask her the question, she told me that she would not vote for Sen. Clinton.
April 29, 2008 1:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Among the major reasons AAs don't vote Republican is because the Nixon's Southern strategy drew the white racist into the Republican party. AAs know this. You're not going to vote for a party that tacitly welcomes others who hate you.
Significant numbers of AAs actually agree with Republican social policies, same as the general American population, imagine that.
If the Republican ever decide that they are better off appealing to ethnic minorities (not just AAs) than appealing to the racist element, the Dems. might be in real trouble.
April 29, 2008 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Please excuse my ignorance on this, but what happens to the donations made to Barack's campaign, after expenses of course, should Hillary steal the nomination? I would be beyond livid if my contributions enabled her campaign in any way. I've specifically resisted contributing to the DNC any further until this thing plays out just for this reason.
Does any know how this works?
April 29, 2008 1:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that Obama can do whatever he wants with the money after he retires any outstanding debt. He could donate some or all of it to the Dem. nominee and/or other candidates. However, don't take my word for it -- I know next to nothing about campaign finance.
April 29, 2008 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. I appreciate the input.
April 29, 2008 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
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