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A Loaf of Bread Could Beat John McCain in November
It seems obvious to me that John McCain will defeat himself. His advocacy of maintaining a large force of U.S. troops in Iraq for years to come flies in the face of strong public opinion to the contrary. That, in combination with his rather apparent (to me, at least) psychological instability and his relative "stay the course" economic positions (despite unprecedented dissatisfaction with the direction of the country) will doom his candidacy. A loaf of bread could beat John McCain in November.
But his opponent will not be a loaf of bread, it will be Barack Obama; A natural leader with positions based in reality, far more than they're based in politics and corporate interests. (Notice that I didn't say "entirely". The man is not perfect.)
But it's all become much more than just the one man. He's attracted a massive, highly motivated constituency of voters; voters who've become extremely frustrated with the unreality that's gripped our federal government. His real pressure will be to live up to their expectations, because they will be watching.
(And yes, I've assumed Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination. As the old saying goes, unless he's caught with a dead hooker or a live boy, he is the Democratic nominee. I see any debate in that regard as nothing more than a hypothetical exercise. )
Comments (10)
Yes! The perfect metaphor. My fear, expressed on other threads, is that the Republican Party will realize this before the election and pull him back - that he's just a placeholder for the actual nominee. His age, his memory lapses, his Shiite/Sunni confusion, his ties to lobbyists, his rages (which have been captured on video), his changing positions ("Does anyone know what my position on contraception is - I'm sure I have one -I think it's the same as Bush's").
April 9, 2008 10:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks, ergoquid. :)
Not to feed into your fear (and perhaps this was already brought up), but in thinking about it, the GOP could use a health excuse (or reality) to cover John McCain's exit from the race. But I think it's pretty unlikely for a number of reasons, the Republican tendency to be set in their ways not the least of them.
Interesting idea to ponder (and dread:), though...
April 9, 2008 11:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Although I've at times bought into the fear that you are wrong, I think that you are right.
Let's consider the polls for a moment: the polls consistently show McCain about even with either Barack or Clinton. But also, the polls consistently show that roughly 20% of the supporters of either democratic candidate would vote for McCain if their preferred candidate is not the nominee. That's roughly 10% of the total electorate for the general election.
Now, many people have speculated that this "democratic defection" will not occur, or at least not in these numbers. The thinking goes that these die hard supporters say they will defect now, in the throes of the primary, but will come to their senses and vote their own interests come November. Let's assume that this is true for, at least, half of the defectors (or, 5% of the total electorate).
So, five percent of those polled say they will vote for McCain when they will actually vote for the Democratic nominee, regardless of who that is.
Let's take the most recent Gallup poll, with the democratic candidates essentially tied with McCain with 45% of the vote. Now lop 5% off McCain's total and add it to the democratic: either democrat would lead McCain by a sizable 50% to 40%. If the Democratic Defection threat is largely illusory, then the dead heat between McCain and the democratic candidate is an illusion as well. McCain is pulverized by Obama, Clinton, or a nice marbled rye.
April 9, 2008 11:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I've also wondered a lot about where the Hillary Clinton vote will go and we're on the same page.
And I think a couple of things can (in one case) and will (in the other) make a major difference. One is Hillary. If she comes out strongly in support of Barack and gives a wonderful speech about healing, I believe many of her supporters will get past their disappointment and stay with the party. And two, two words - Supreme Court. I would fully expect the ramifications of John McCain appointments to be a broken record message from the Democrats in the general election campaign.
And my final point is - Mmmm... a nice marbled rye... And imagine how a fresh loaf of sourdough would bring them out...
April 10, 2008 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I choose not to look too closely at the general election polls this far out. Because, first off, Hillary Clinton is still a candidate on the Dem side, so her numbers are throwing off Obama's. And because, secondly, it's nowhere near November yet.
That said, I also choose not to look too closely at the general election polls because I'm too busy looking at the ISSUES polls, and the ISSUES polls tell me that roughly 60% of Americans want a resolution in Iraq. Approximately 60% of us don't want to stay there for another six years, let alone another four.
Add the economy factor in, and add to that McCain's heartless "let 'em eat cake" attitude towards those who are losing their homes in today's economy, and....well....
McCain ain't got a chance.
Nice post, and recommended.
April 9, 2008 11:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Indeed, Lis. It's all about issues, issues, issues. And they're pretty clear-cut this time.
Thanks. :) Hopefully more will recommend, as I see this post is about to fall into the TPM abyss...
April 10, 2008 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
If it were about the issues, a loaf of bread could have won in 2004. I am optimistic that a Democratic loaf of bread would win, but this year's candidate will face serious competition from a Republican ... bag of hammers.
April 10, 2008 12:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
I believe Mr. Obama is showin' pretty well that he regains his shape quite nicely after being hit with a bag of hammers.
(I think we have jointly created what is perhaps the stupidest metaphor ever.;)
April 10, 2008 12:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heh heh, yeah, though I can't claim that the expression "dumber than a bag of hammers" is my own invention.
Is this a Canadianism that no one here has ever heard before? Darn, that Canadian upbringing always comes back to bite me when I least expect it ...
April 11, 2008 3:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Other things that could beat McCain in Nov include:
An old sock
A blown spare tire
A can of lard
A wood tick
A worn out shoe
A marshmallow peep
A piece of navel lint
Some old wierd fuzzy stuff at the bottom of a closet
A dead trout
A moldy tomato
A half eaten fig newton
A wicker basket filled with notions
An old cow
A young cow
A middle aged cow
A piece of dirt
April 10, 2008 10:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
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