Reader Posts

April 27, 2008 - May 3, 2008

Operation Anti-Chaos: The Narrative on “White Voters” Is Fiction

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Yet another interesting piece, separating fiction from facts by By Al Giordano. 
I turn on the TV, read the political columnists (and a significant
number of analytically-challenged bloggers, too) and all I hear is a
bunch of white folk prattling on about their favorite narrative:
“Obama’s losing white voters!”

They’ve swallowed the Clinton racially-obsessed spin, hook, line and
sinker. Some, because they are gullible, haven’t an original idea in
their little pea brains, and follow the pack of what everybody else is
talking about. Others, because they like to toss around knowing
falsehoods. Nary a superdelegate can go on Fox News without being
berated by an anchorperson screeching (this is pretty close to an exact
quote): “But your duty as a superdelegate is to select the most electable and that’s Hillary Clinton!”
That these anchorpersons are Republican partisans openly cheering for
Senator Clinton is our first clue of the game afoot. One of the major
successes of Rush Limbaugh’s Operation Chaos is that it has got all the
right-wing pundits and reporters marching lockstep behind the effort to
give Clinton enough oxygen to keep slashing away at Senator Obama, who
remains the prohibitive likely Democratic nominee.

Read more here

It's Great to Talk About Giant Lasers...Here is what one does.

To be fair, mcc doesn't ever really talk about lasers (although he/she does talk decent science).  Here is what a laser really does...and it's consequences. 

http://www.chem.purdue.edu/Dian/research.htm

It's a little long but I'm a scientist, not an

auteur.  Enjoy.


Ballston, We have a Problem!

Obama captures the coveted Tom Hanks endorsement:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=68CKnirCxak

Hanks does a nice job with this. It looks like he produced it himself. It's been a good day for pro-Obama video clips.

I'm only sorry that my "Is Tim Russert the Reincarnation of Heat Miser?" video post died an early death. Will you ever look at Tim Russert the same way again? You decide:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oqMrKuTZtNg

Teddy Roosevelt Sayings

Everyone knows "speak softly and carry a bit stick", as people remind me on Hillary's Iran comment, but here are a few others worth noting. (There are more, Google them. Better yet, read his speeches and ideas).
------------------------------------------------------------
Teddy Roosevelt:

"The unforgivable crime is soft hitting. Do not hit at all if it can be avoided; but never hit softly."

"Wars are, of course, as a rule to be avoided; but they are far better than certain kinds of peace. "

"I took the Canal Zone and let Congress debate; and while the debate goes on, the canal does also."

"In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing."

"It behooves every man to remember that the work of the critic is of altogether secondary importance, and that, in the end, progress is accomplished by the man who does things."

"The most successful politician is he who says what everybody is thinking most often and in the loudest voice."

"The pacifist is as surely a traitor to his country and to humanity as is the most brutal wrongdoer."

"The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life. "

When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer "Present" or "Not guilty."

When you are asked if you can do a job, tell 'em, 'Certainly I can!' Then get busy and find out how to do it.

Finally, a realistic look at Clinton's odds

Every now and then I find myself discouraged with the state of the nominating process. The side issue distractions, the polls, the surrogates, the media coverage, etc..

I have to remind myself of the big picture. In reality the nomination has been settled for some time.

Super delegates are just trying to figure out how to address this fact without alienating voters, supporters and contributors. So many news sources have been portraying  this race as still a close contest, many are unwilling to admit even the possibility of defeat. It's understandable.

It can be easy to succumb to the petty and just plain wacky political coverage.  Just when I'm ready to throw up my hands in indignation I come across something honest. This has happened to me twice recently. Today it came in the form of this article:

http://www.slate.com/id/2190556/pagenum/all/#page_start

An honest assessment of the state of the race was just what I needed after a long and tiring week.



LOOKS LIKE DEMS PICK UP HOUSE SEAT IN LOUISIANA!!!!

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99% of the vote in and Cazayoux has a 3000+ vote lead!!!!!
Congratulations!!
Looks like the sleazy attempt to link him to Pelosi and Wright failed!!

Tom Hanks Wants Obama As President





       http://www.myspace.com/tomhanks

Liberalism is Good Business: 25% of American Children Live in Poverty

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Inspired by the awesome debate in Healthcare as Good
Business, linked here,

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/05/universal-health-care-is-good.php

I wanted to continue the discussion about liberal ideals as good business.  Moreover, I want not only to market liberal policies as common sense, and appealing to the right, but all liberal values as such.  I want to take “liberal” back, we are much stronger than the current perception.  The Left is stronger on almost all topics, and agrees with the vast majority of American people on important supposedly weak Liberal issues including security, foreign policy and religion, than the Right.  Despite what the media tries to tell us, Liberal values are the real reflection of the majority of Americans.  I will blog on these topics later if people like this post.


But lets talk the economy.  Im a converted republican leaner and CPA, so this is a topic that kept me in chains with the GOP until events called on me to educate myself on realities behind the hype.  Good business is a powerful marketing concept for any Dem platform, as Desidero saw with the well received post. 


So to begin, we all know the economy has done better under Democratic presidents in recent memory, deficits have grown less fast and stock markets done better.  But even on traditional issues of Liberal concern, Dems have very persuasive arguments for fiscally conservative counterparts that they in fact have the stronger position, one that is more economically beneficial.  Consider:

 
Universal Welfare.  Healthcare makes us more able to work, helping the economy.  Child welfare is important to our economy, up to 25% of our country’s children live in poverty.  
 

http://www.heartsandminds.org/articles/childpov.htm

Your income and neighborhood are some of the biggest determinants of how well you will do in life, so more money invested means more productive future workers.  Yet we invest in children’s financial well being shamefully poorly.  Our poverty rates are among the world’s best for seniors, terrible for children.  Why?  After welfare reform, people got left out, whereas social security is universal coverage and beyond “Liberal” labels.  People feel less angry about senior free rides, after all we will all be less able older citizens someday and will hope to depend on the good nature of younger citizens to care for us, even though we can’t pull our weight as much as before.  But this justification is just marketing.  Considering the amount of a welfare check is hardly enough to live on, much yet to incent people not to get a job, there is much less free riding than there is resentment of the possibility.  But Liberalism has solutions good for business there too- make them work, like in Holland.  They create jobs just to employ people.  Such a program would add another $2 billion to our tax burden, but hey, get out of Iraq and we can fund that in one week.  Plus, don’t forget workers actually contribute stuff…
 

Deregulation.  Oh the burdens of laws.  Sure, they can go overboard and restrict progress, but much of the deregulation we have seen in the past few decades has its most major societal impact not on heightening progress, but restricting it.  Consider the relaxation of ANTITRUST laws.  These laws don’t help foment competition- we can all agree competition helps the economy right?- it helps crush competition, innovation and progress.  Further, relaxing pollution laws doesn’t help the economy overall, it helps owners of corporations make money, and passes on a bigger bill to the public to clean up.  Yes, Big Pharma may benefit from medicine sales to treat those poisoned by pollution and additives (all of us), but the cost we bear has increased as a result, overall bad for business, but good for owners of polluting corporations and other entrenched interests.  And we haven’t even begun to talk about the last three recessions are directly correlated to the Right’s deregulations in housing (2008), financial sector (late 1990s Asian monetary collapse) and the S&L crisis (early 80s).  Of course, if you ask Joe Scarborough, or McCain, it was due to greedy speculators flipping houses.  
 

Environmentalism.  The Right has been blocking solutions to global warming since the day it began.  They claim its bad for business.  No.  Innovative solutions are good for business and help fuel the economy and our economic leadership in the world.  It is bad for Big Oil and The Big 3 automakers though, for example.  Not because they cant make money selling things like the electric car (someday), but because its RISKY.  They have a good thing going with the whole oil thing, they have the market controlled, game theory says milk that until its gone.  Sure, they could jump to making innovative cars running on saltwater (yes someday this could be possible!), but your company isn’t made up of creative Silicon Valley types.  And if they do develop the market and the right technology, the new market will attract competition and making additional profit from the risk over the long haul.  Environmentalism is better business overall, just not for the companies making money killing the planet.  We don’t need to kill whales to have a thriving economy, sorry Dick.

Taxes.  Thanks to the Iraq War, Dems don’t have to defend an increase in taxes to fund many programs, such as infrastructure relief, education et all.  Whether it’s a reduction in the deficit or increase in current taxes, the overall burden on the average American would be lower post war.  Most of the tax controversy has been and will be, war or not, that the richest Americans basically lie about the middle class impact to get the support needed.  See the Death Tax discussion of 2003.  Notice today how the talk about taxes centers on capital gains, yet McCain’s more regressive tax plan is left unfettered.  The truth is the Left’s tax plan has been more fiscally responsible, the Right’s propaganda about tax and spend Liberals more effective.  But we are factually better on this issue that the GOP.  Yes, higher taxes haven’t stimulated the economy since the days of FDR, but Liberals championing rollbacks of tax cuts for the richest Americans is good business, lest we overburden future generations with more irresponsible debt.  Unpopular for Rupert Murdoch, but better overall.  Thank God we can prove that trickle down isn’t good for the economy, but, as George Senior said, it is voodoo economics after all.  

If you liked this discussion please recommend!

I Maybe Think We're Going to Be Okay

 Today, I worked as a monitor for Obama at an early voting site here in the ol North State.  Last day of early voting, last day to register and business was expected to be good, which it was.   

They state campaign is focusing its efforts on getting its volunteer lawyers properly credentialed (i.e. inside the polling place) on Tuesday, so those of us who also volunteered for extra duty this weekend were told to charge up our cell phones, slather on the sun screen, grab a handful of fliers and, unless something untoward happened, plan on spending most of the day  the legally required distance from the door outside the polling places. 

Nothing like getting off the net and out among some real people--both in the corporeal sense and in the not politcal junkies getting upset over every poll--to restore your perspective. 

Last night, I zinged a few barbs around here, did my post about Hillary's gas tax thing and watched the NC Jefferson Jackson "dinner" (Dinner indeed.  I didn't see no food.) on CSPN.  I had to mute Hillary because I couldn't stop imitating her speaking style every other minute and it scares the bejesus out of the cats when I do that.  Because of that, I also missed the booing at the mention of Easley's name, Hillary being taken aback by chanting for Obama and Hillary's supporters walking out before Obama spoke (and, hell, maybe they were just lining up for the bathrooms--it did drag on a bit).  Obama seemed to have caught Hillary's laryngitis, a common campaign trail malady but he got em wound up by the end. 

So basically, I had a good wallow in the acrimony last night, read my monitor manual and some memos from the state board of elections sent by the campaign and hit the sheets. 

And worried about the acrimony. 

That acrimony's like "sword fighting" with sticks when you were a kid.  All good fun until somebody gets hurt, as someone inevitably does.  And lately, as much fun as I've been having with the acrimony, I have been increasingly worried that the party and, more importantly, that realignment election I'd been hopefully predicting, were going up in smoke.

So today, I got to see some real voters, lots of them, actually, and I think maybe we're still going to be okay. 

My early voting location was a county library extension in one of those communities that likes to think of itself as still being rural and Mayberryish, but has really been a bedroom community for the city for about thirty years. For an Obama supporter, there were lots of things you could see as encouraging.  A long, yet cheerful, line.  A good, strong, enthusiastic turnout by African Americans and a lot more young people than I'm used to seeing. There were also a surprising number of those famous working class white women  who were firmly in the tank for Obama.  Surprising, that is, if you didn't know North Carolina and the endemic antipathy for Hillary among its women.  And, by the by, as a point of interest, if Hillary's got any ground came in North Carolina, I saw no evidence of it in my little microscopic slice of the election today.  

While I was passing out my pamphlets  and answering (often correctly) questions about registration, I had a nice chat with a lady from the teacher's union who was handing out their endorsements in the down-ticket races.  She was a middle aged Republican mom who's switched so she can vote Democratic but is torn between Obama and Hillary.  She asked me to talk about why I was for him and I did.  She's not crazy about Obama's preacher, but she just doesn't feel like Hillary can be trusted.  But on the other hand, she doesn't care a lot about the preacher, she says she disagrees with her own pastor all the time. Later, her relief, an older lady with whom I shared my cooler of drinks--of course I brought one, it's May in North Carolina--allowed as how that she'd voted for Hillary but her husband's vote for Obama had canceled it out. 

I also met several actual Obamaicans today.  Flinty-eyed mustachioed Dale Earnhardt worshiping Republican white guys who like Obama a lot. They weren't changing their registarations, and were there to vote down ticket races in the primary, but thery're in the bag for Obama in the fall..  This is a real phenomenon, not just a PR thing.  Their disgust for Bush was palpable and it has rubbed off on McCain.  The Republicans truly have absolutely no clue regarding the extent to which the ground has shifted beneath their feet.  (Heh heh heh.)  I was worried that they would be the first people we lost, but they're holding fast.  They're not going to get fooled again. 

Above all, though, I was reminded that most people don't have time in their lives for the acrimony between Obama and Clinton supporters online.  If Obama is nominated, the Hillary supporters in the real world will get over it and vote for him. I only met one women who gave the impression of someone who'd be too angry to do so. 

My two best moments were these: 

First, a tough, tough looking short haired lady in a rodeo buckle and cowboy boots wearing a shirt that said "Are you going to COWBOY UP or just lay there and bleed?" took my literature despite looking to be squarely in Hillary's prime demographic.  I told her I want to buy one of those shirts for every damn person in the Democratic Party this year and she understood what I mean. 

Are you going to cowboy up or just lay there and bleed?  Damn right.  

Second, the best moment of all came as closing time approached.  A thirty something African American woman who had just voted came up to me and sincerely thanked me for what I was doing.  I confess I got a little verklempt.  It made me feel like the simple fact that a lot of whites believe, and are capable of believing, that Barack Obama is the best person for the job of president meant a lot to her, and, by extention to a lot of black folk.  It was a reminder to me that come January 20, 2009, we will all look at each other differently if we elect him.  It was a reminder that, if we elect him, a  slender, desparately needed, bridge of trust will be thrown over the abyss of hurt and mutual suspicion that has separated black from white for decades.

It's not the main reason I'm for Barack, but it's no small thing.  Not a small thing at all. 

And, hey, in closing, I just wanted to give a shout out to Billy Glad for his  "Canvassing For Anybody But McCain" blog today.  He may be one of those People's Front for the Liberation of Judea bastards rather than a Judean Popular Liberaton Front hero, but, somehow, reading his blog just added to my feeling that maybe we're going to be okay after all. 

Because when all is said and done, and the pledged delgates are pledged and the supers have supered, the real question, the important question is, after all, whether we're  going to cowboy up, or whether we're just going to lay there and bleed. 

politics is local & give yourselves a lift

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a diary from someone at Daily Kos who was in Indiana for a new speech by Obama  which, if you're really down from watching MSM, will give you a lift
Obama's Indianapolis Speech: "Where is that America today?"http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/3/14811/66660
and
Check out this really good piece from Indiana  `Observations from the Center of the Political Universe`

http://www.howeypolitics.com/


You Can't Make This Up ...



"Hillary Clinton enthusiastically picked a filly named Eight Belles
to win the Kentucky Derby and compared herself to the horse. Eight
Belles finished second. The winner was the favorite, Big Brown. Eight
Belles collapsed immediately after crossing the finish line, and was
euthanized shortly thereafter."

Source: Halpern, The Page





Saturday's Superdelegate Activity: Obama +3, Clinton +1

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From DemConWatch:

  • Former state Education Superintendent Inez Tenenbaum, an Obama supporter, has been selected as the add-on from South Carolina.
  • Maryland
    has chosen former Gov. Parris N. Glendening and former Lt. Gov.
    Kathleen Kennedy Townsend as its add-ons. Townsend is a Clinton
    supporter, and Glendening is backing Obama.
  • New Mexico State Party Chair Brian S. Colón endorses Obama.
  • Louisiana has chosen New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin as its add-on superdelegate. Nagin is uncommitted.
In other news, Guam's pledged delegates split 2-2. There are two special Congressional elections in Louisiana today; if the Democrats pick up either seat (one pickup seems quite possible), that would mean an additional LA superdelegate.

LA-01 Early Results

Results from Sec. of State here

It's not looking good for dear Gilda.  With 18 of 505 precincts reporting, Scalise is winning 71-26.  Analyst Greg Rigamer on WWL is declaring that Steve Scalise is the winner of the 1st Congressional District race. But hey, they've been declaring that since the race began.  Self-fulfilling prophecy, much?

From the ground in IN

I am now officially an Obama supporter.  I voted early for him yesterday (So did the woman next to me who let that admission slip in a conversation with her friend.  Older, white woman by the way).

Anyway, I'm in the college town of Lafayette, and as you can expect there is a lot of support for Obama on campus.  I'm a professor at Purdue University (Chemistry, just so you know I'm not trying to be some policy wonk, just what I see), and while I try very hard not to influence my students with my personal politics, it's also very hard to ignore the student organization for Obama.  This is a fairly conservative campus, but the organization for Obama is fierce.  I haven't personally seen a single flyer, rally, meeting call for Clinton on campus (or McCain for that matter, but that could be justified in that he is garunteed the nomination).  Many for Obama.  I will let you interpret that as you will.

The television ads in this market are just starting to go 2:1 for Obama.  Clinton was following most Obama ads (leading a few) early in the week.  Friday and Saturday I personally haven't seen any.  Please take this with a grain of salt, I'm only trying to report 'what I've seen' as a viewer in IN.

Instead, something more intersting has been cropping up.  Almost half of Obama ads that I've seen have been followed imediately by American Leadership Project Ads.  Most of the early (Thursday and Friday) Obama ads have been hitting Clinton on the gas-tax-holiday.  About half of these have been immediately followed by the American Leadership Project sponsered ads that say that Obama doesn't offer specifics, and they give a number to call to 'force' Obama to give specifics on his policy issues.  The intersting thing is that they give a Washington DC number (202 area code) to call rather than the free number from his campaign web site.  I'll call the number at some point when I can catch the ad (if even can anymore) and see where it leads.

Furthermore, you can see Obama ads pretty much everywhere.  Network channels and cable channels (much of my viewing is on cable channels, take that for what you will)

Now, the above was Thursday/Friday.  Today, things have begun to shift a bit.  The ads are closer (I believe snipits of) to the 'closer ads' Obama has for IN and NC.  So not any immediate ALP follow-ups.  But he has a great line in those ads: "Politics didn't lead me to working people, working people lead me to politics".  That's a great line and it's going to resonant here in IN.

Obama had a big speech today in Indianapolis.  I've read the text, it's a humdinger and getting almost no coverage nationally, or locally (I'm not in the Indy market).  You can read the full speech here:

http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/amandascott/gGCSJF

It's clear from the Jefferson-Davis speech of last night and the speech in Indy he's going back to the inspirational tone, but with more policy/personal details.  I think this spells trouble for Clinton.

Finally, don't forget that Indiana is an open primary where Democrats, Rebulicans, and Independents can vote for whomever they want.  This is going to favor Obama despite 'Operation Chaos'

As far as the 'Magnequench Plant' goes: Haven't seen anything yet from the local news (help here if I'm wrong).  I refuse to buy the local paper, not because they're crap, but because we have our own 'Scaife' here in IN and he owns not just the newspapers, but TV channels as well.  I won't go into that now.

In summary, I feel really good.  I think the polls are crap and I think it's because they undersample Republicans and Independents (like myself).  From where I sit there is a really good vibe for Obama in this state, and I personally think it will be His New Hampshire.

Thanks All.
cb

Frankly My Dear, I Don't Give a Guam

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It seems that the good people of Guam had better things to do today than vote in the Democratic Party primary/caucus.


Out of approximately 55,000 registered voters, only 4,521 people voted. The winner? Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton by a grand total of seven votes.


Voting is a very touchy issue in Guam. In yet another bizarre footnote to our election process, the citizens of Guam can vote in the Democratic Primary, but they are not allowed to vote in the general election.


Even stranger, Guam gets to send 13 people to Denver for the convention. Five of them are Superdelegates (Guam gets five Superdelegates???). The other eight get a total of four votes. So you have a combination of Superdelegates and Semi-delegates.


To get these 4,500 people to vote Obama and Clinton spent a small fortune in television ads. Flooding the airwaves, they covered pretty much the same territory, making the exact same promises. The biggest promise? Making sure that Guamanians can vote in the next presidential election.


Apparently, it wasn’t just apathy that kept all but 4,500 residents from voting.


It seems that yesterday’s voting coincided with one of the island’s biggest annual events, the Kantan Minagof Song Festival. According to the Guam Visitors Bureau, “the public is encouraged to participate for prizes in Talaya fishnet throwing, Coconut Husking and Grating, and Tuba Drinking.”


While Tuba Drinking evoked images of inebriated brass bands, it turns out that tuba is a potent alcoholic drink made from the sap of coconut trees. Bombed on tuba, the Guamanians weren’t thinking about Reverend Wright, universal health-care or the state of affairs in Iraq. They were too busy tossing fishing nets, husking coconuts and getting blasted to worry about such mundane matters.


But the Guamanians could raise their glasses and drink to democracy. They might not have too many voters, but at least their votes counted. They’ll have more votes in Denver than Florida or Michigan.  


Guam… this Tuba’s for you!

On Tibet, Xinjiang, and anti-Islamic bias

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Could anybody explain why it's a huge controversy when the Chinese government puts down violent riots (there's a video of a little Han girl being tortured, so don't question the presence of violence) in Buddhist Tibet and it's a huge controversy, but it can put down a peaceful protest in Muslim Xinjiang without any complaint outside of the rare protester in a middle eastern country (hell, the Times even buried the news on the last page of the international section when it reported the event).

Now, you might say that the "splittists" in Xinjiang are terrorists, but that would be based upon information coming from the same people saying the Dalai Lama was planning to suicide bomb China himself.

Now, the only thing I can see that really differentiates the two is the fact that the Tibetans are Buddhists and the Uyghurs are Muslims, which definitely hurts our image among Muslims, who are probably thinking "what the hell?".

Think Maybe CNN, FOX - support Hillary Clinton or McCain for Pres?

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Ya think maybe cable news stations and magazines favor Hillary Clinton or John McCain for President? 

If you had any doubt as to whom they support, all you need do is watch what they've been covering or talking about this weekend - before the Tuesday 'game changer' as Hillary calls it.


CNN has been showing the following stories:

Kentucky Derby filly euthanized after jockey can't get her to stop

Is it too much to think there was a message for Hillary in the Kentucky Derby outcome today?  That message being that now that the race is over, which it is, she really should probably get out.

You probably recall she was telling voters they should bet on the one filly in the race, Eight Belles, despite the odds.  Well, Eight Belles finished a respectible second, but was euthanized seven minutes after the race was over because she broke both ankles after her jockey was unable to get her to stop after the race.  As the jockey told the courier journal, “I tried to get her to stop,” he said. “I tried to get her to stop, but she wouldn’t stop.”
http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/SPORTS08/80503027/1002/SPORTSSeriously. 
The winner of the race, a horse named Big Brown.

Electability Snapshot

Last week I posted results of a Monte Carlo simulation I'd done of the general election using data from Votemaster Andrew Tanenbaum's electoral-vote.com.

A week has gone by, and there are new state polls of the general election matchups, so I've rerun the numbers again, running another 10,000 trials of each of a McCain/Obama and McCain/Clinton matchup. The results:
Obama wins 80.2%, averages 292.8 EV
McCain wins 17.0%, averages 245.2 EV
Electoral tie  2.8%

Clinton wins 97.3%, averages 289.5 EV
McCain wins  2.3%, averages 248.5 EV
Electoral tie  0.4%

It's interesting that despite the continuing worry that the continued primary fight is damaging, both Obama and Clinton run much stronger this week than they did last week. new polls in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania both showed large gains for
both Democratic candidates, which explains the differences.

I also note that while Clinton wins a higher percentage of the simulations than Obama does, Obama actually averages more electoral votes. This is because Obama is just one point behind McCain in three big states: Ohio, Florida, and Texas. If any of those swing his way, he not only likely wins the election, he wins it bigger than Clinton likely would.


These are simulations using the most recent poll(s) in each state, and
assuming a 4% margin of error for the polls, which is standard. It isn't a direct
prediction of the race, but it
does reflect what current polling data say. Six months is obviously a
long time, and much will change between now and November. One way to estimate the possiblity for change would be to widen the margin of error, but that raises the question of how big a margin of error to use - to a point a wider margin of error makes Obama appear more competitive relative to Clinton based on current polls.

This week's data show that both candidates are certainly electable, although based on current polling data, Hillary would be a little more likely to win in November. But a lot has changed in the past week, so I plan to rerun this analysis again as new general election polls are released.


The Weekly Standard's Big, Wet Clinton Kiss

The Weekly Standard's Noemie Emery tells why Senator Clinton has been embraced by the right.

It's because she's "tough".  I guess threatening to Obliterate Iran endears one to  the neo-fascists at the Weekly Standard.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/063kvafy.asp

Obama almost lost a delegate today.

My wife and I just returned from voting in our Congressional District Convention/Assembly (CD6) in Colorado a few minutes go. Many Obama delegates and alternates didn't show up. We were unable to fill all the Obama seats from Arapahoe county. Campaign organizers were frantically calling missing delegates and begging them to come down to the convention. It was a close thing and the Hillary supporters were out in force.
The Assembly was in the morning and Hank Eng won the CD6 nomination. He will be running against Tom Tancredo in the fall. The Convention for CD6's national delegates, 5 plus 1 alternate, was in the afternoon and that's where we were short. Luckily, many people responded to the calls and jumped in their cars to drive down and fill vacant seats for the afternoon. We did finally get enough for Jefferson county. If they hadn't come, one of the national delegates might have gone to Hillary instead of Obama. 
Many Obama delegates are new to the process and some are missing some of the arcane steps required to actually complete the process of carrying the voter's voices forward. It seems the Hillary folk are more likely to be longtime party participants who know the ropes. In another year, this might have made no difference. This year, we need to keep our eye on the ball and follow through. 
If you are a state or congressional level delegate or know someone who is, be sure to keep in mind that the results from months ago are not always chiseled in stone just yet. It's vitally important to keep in touch and keep doing everything you can to see this through.
A last note, this is not because the Obama campaign isn't following through because they are. We got multiple phone calls and we both got letters reminding us of the upcoming conventions, both congressional and state. It's just that not enough of the delegates are following through.

BREAKING: Obama wins Guam

According to CNN.  Don't know the break up.

Readers Contributions to TPM Process

I just want to compliment the ongoing process by so many TPM regulars (especially Ghengis) for starting a discussion about how the site can be less insular.  I hope that other readers will keep posting.
Also, I think Ghengis might provide some update posts on the process. 

Boot Camp for Chicken Littles (from The Field)

Al Giordano has done it again.

For anyone who cares about the primary season.  If you can't click the link, here are Al's five maxims for all of us who indulge our despair.  The last two are pleas for donations to the Field, but I strongly urge everyone to send even a few dollars to each and every site you rely on in this mad season.  

The Field leans Obama-ward, but I think that this particular blog could be useful  for all of us.

<blockquote>1. Any time you cite a “national tracking poll” as supposed evidence of your candidate’s chances of victory disappearing, you must make 25 get-out-the-vote phone calls on that candidate’s behalf. (Don’t ask me how to do that: consult the web page of your candidate for instructions!)

2. Any time you fret aloud about your candidate losing an upcoming primary or caucus, and worry about alleged grave consequences (in the face of the facts that all remaining candidates have lost some contests and yet they march on), you must make 50 calls to voters in every state you mention.

3. Any time you complain aloud about what your candidate’s campaign or staff is not doing you must give at least $10 to that candidate, to make it possible for them to do more.

4. Any time you ask me what you ought to be doing you must give $10 to support the work of The Field.

5. If I take the time to provide you with an answer, you must raise $100 from your friends and neighbors to support this blog!</blockquote>

A bad omen for Hillary

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Everyone will recall that Hillary Clinton said everyone should root for the filly in the Kentucky Derby.  The race is now over.  Unfortunately, the filly, Eight Belles, placed second in the race, broke her front ankles, and was euthanised on the track.  The winner?  Big Brown . . . .

Bill Moyers NAILS IT!!! Thank you, Bill!

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May 2, 2008 
BILL MOYERS:Welcome to the Journal.

Many of you have asked for some rational explanation for Wright's transition from reasonable conversation to shocking anger at the National Press Club. A psychologist might pull back some of the layers and see this complicated man more clearly, but I'm not a psychologist. Many black preachers I've known - scholarly, smart, and gentle in person -- uncorked fire and brimstone in the pulpit. Of course I've known many white preachers like that, too.

But in this multimedia age the pulpit isn't only available on Sunday mornings. There's round the clock media — the beast whose hunger is never satisfied, especially for the fast food with emotional content. So the preacher starts with rational discussion and after much prodding throws more and more gasoline on the fire that will eventually consume everything it touches. He had help — people who for their own reasons set out to conflate the man in the pulpit who wasn't running for president with the man in the pew who was.

Behold the double standard: John McCain sought out the endorsement of John Hagee, the war-mongering Catholic-bashing Texas preacher, who said the people of New Orleans got what they deserved for their sins. But no one suggests McCain shares Hagee's delusions, or thinks AIDS is God's punishment for homosexuality. Pat Robertson called for the assassination of a foreign head of state and asked God to remove Supreme Court justices, yet he remains a force in the Republican religious right. After 9/11 Jerry Falwell said the attack was God's judgment on America for having been driven out of our schools and the public square, but when McCain goes after the endorsement of a preacher he once condemned as an agent of intolerance, the press gives him a pass.

Which means it is all about race, isn't it?

Wright's offensive opinions and inflammatory appearances are judged differently. He doesn't fire a shot in anger, put a noose around anyone's neck, call for insurrection, or plant a bomb in a church with children in Sunday school. What he does is to speak his mind in a language and style that unsettles some people, and says some things so outlandish and ill-advised that he finally leaves Obama no choice but to end their friendship. Politics often exposes us to the corroding acid of the politics of personal destruction, but I've never seen anything like this — this wrenching break between pastor and parishioner. Both men no doubt will carry the grief to their graves. All the rest of us should hang our heads in shame for letting it come to this in America, where the gluttony of the non-stop media grinder consumes us all and prevents an honest conversation on race. It is the price we are paying for failing to heed the great historian Jacob Burckhardt, who said "beware the terrible simplifiers".


For All You Alice Walker Fans...

Alice Walker,. who is supporting Obama, will be the guest on  "In Depth" on Sunday on C-Span2 from 12 noon -3pm EST.

So again, Obama appears on Meet the Press, on NBC from 10:30Am- 11:30 AM, EST

Then
And Alice Walker on C-Span 2 from 12 noon - 3pm

Every Person In America Should See This Explaination of Jeremiah Wright by Bill Moyers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvnMK1d9xE0.

I think this speaks for itself and is representative of responsible journalism.

Obama Solid With White Voters, Clinton Not So Much With Black Voters

From the NY Times:

Obama Solid With White Voters, Clinton Not So Much With Black Voters

The question is this: Have white Democrats soured on Obama? Apparently not. Although his unfavorable rating from the group is up five percentage points since last summer in polls conducted by The New York Times and CBS News, his favorable rating is up just as much.

On the other hand, black Democrats’ opinion of Hillary Clinton has deteriorated substantially (her favorable rating among them is down 36  percentage points over the same period).

While a favorable opinion doesn’t necessarily translate into a vote, this  should still give the Clintons (and the superdelegates) pause. Electability cuts both ways.

DemFromCT over at DK has a lot more:

An Important Reminder: Obama Will Be the Sole Guest On "Meet The Press" W/ Tim Russett Tommorw: Sunday

Meet the Press Airs on NBC, from 10:30-11:30 EST.


Why is nobody reporting Obama's victory in Guam on TPM?

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Does Eric go home early on Saturdays or something?

Electability: Obama up 5 against McCain in Rasmussen national tracking poll, Clinton down 1

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Her trends are down and his are up. I think these new national polls lend credence to the electability argument. For Democrats for whom victory in the fall is of preeminent importance, the evidence speaks for itself.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history

He's also moving well ahead in the head to head poll against Clinton

http://www.gallup.com/poll/106945/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-49-Obama-45.aspx?loc=interstitialskip

Canvassing For Anybody But McCain

Everybody is sleeping in except you.  You get up early because you're not sure where the Clinton campaign headquarters in South Bend is.  And that's a good decision.  Google maps wants you to use a cross street that's not there, and you get lost for 10 or 15 minutes trying to find the storefront that houses the Clinton campaign.

The phone bank is working already,  All women.  All over 50.  The volunteer coordinators, a couple of guys and a woman are in their 20s.  You ask them how it's going.  They tell you it's tied for the state and we're losing by a point or two in South Bend.

You pick up a folder of addresses, go over the driving directions with your coordinator, and get out of the office before you get stuck with two people from Ohio who don't want to go out by themselves. 

It's a 15 minute drive out to the suburbs. 

What you're looking for is 79 voters, hidden somewhere among a couple of hundred houses in two subdivisions.  These are voters who call themselves Democrats or Independents and  haven't declared for Obama or McCain.  For all you know, some of them may actually be committed to Hillary Clinton.  With two days to go until the Primary, you're trying to figure out if any of them are going to vote for Clinton.  They'll get a call on Tuesday.  If the rest of them are going to get a call, it will have to come from Obama or McCain.

These subdivisions are not near filling stations, restaurants, fast food or any other kind of place that has a restroom.  When you pass a soccer field, you note the location of the portable toilets for future reference.

As soon as you turn into the first subdivision, you notice two things.  The houses are big and expensive, and there are no kids.  Studying the names and addresses on your list, you see that the average age out here is about 70.  McCain country.

You slap a Hillary for President sticker over the Oracle logo on your cap and slap another one under the Interstate Batteries racing logo on your windbreaker, grab your clipboard, and canvass the subdivision.  This is not an inner city neighborhood that lets you park, then walk down one side of the street and back up the other.  This is a neighborhood of culdesacs.   Long distances between the houses on your list.

Most people aren't home.  Dogs barking behind locked doors.  Flyers wedged in the screen doors.  Neighbors watching from across the street.  And none of the neighbors is on your list.

Four hours later, you've found four people firmly committed to Clinton.  Two firmly committed to Obama.  Four who aren't going to vote, five or six who can't decide if they hate Bill Clinton or Jeremiah Wright the most.  The rest of the people you talk to are undecided.  What's important to them?  Nothing much.  Just undecided.  Going to wait to make up their minds.  You pitch the economy and they agree.  You pitch the healthcare and they agree.  You pitch the supreme court and they agree.  And you suddenly realize you're pitching anything and anybody but McCain.  Hell, you even pitch John Edwards when you run out of things to pitch.  But these people are undecided.
 
The last house is the home of a middle-aged woman. When you ask her for her vote she says:  You've got it.  It's a positive note to end the day on. 

When you get back to the campaign, the phone bank is still working hard.  There are two men making calls with the women now.  The coordinator says:  How did it go?  And two of the women stop talking and look at you like they really want to know what you think about how it's going.  And you know what they want to hear.

NC: Half of Clinton Audience Walks Out on Obama

If you watched the complete speeches by both Clinton and Obama yesterday on C-Span, you may have noticed that the audience in the bleachers were divided into two sections, Obama supporters on the left, Clinton supporters on the right.
Clinton spoke first. After she spoke, more than half of that section left.
This was a major event for the party in NC. 
I think that the Obama people would have stayed had Obama spoken first.

American Geneva Violations Against Al-Janeera's Al-Haj Exposes American Civilians To Abuse

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Al-Janeera cameraman Al-Haj was detained in 2002 along the Pakistani-Afghan border. Absurdly, the American changed the reason for detaining him at Guantanamo, later saying the camerman was smuggling cash for Chechen rebels.
When Americans call journalists "unlawful combatants," all American civilians might be similarly labeled to justify their abuse. The Americans have no legal basis to use retaliatory acts against "unlawful American combatants," to engage in other Geneva violations.

American civilians, legal counsel, policy makers, and contractors could be charged, on accusation alone, without any evidence, of supporting illegal rendition and other war crimes.
American Inaction in re Chechnya Destroys Pretext For Detaining Al-Haj As An "Unlawful Combatant"
Last time we checked, Chechnya is in Europe, but Pakistan is in Southwest Asia. Based on the evidence the Americans supposedly gleaned about Europe, DOJ OLC has no explanation why the American President did not invadie Chechnya. Seeing no invasion of Chechnya, the American's excuse self-evidently fails; seeing no trial or conviction, the American's pretext for Geneva violations evaporates.

Dubious American Detentions Opens Door To Reciprocal Violations Against American Civilians
However, this isn't the end. The pretext for detaining the cameraman for six [6] years was dubious. The problem for DOJ OLC staff is one of reciprocity and retaliation under the Geneva Conventions. Once one power -- the United States -- violates Geneva and detains civilians without charges, relabels then "unlawful combatants," other nations may commit like violations.
DoJ OLC Exposes American Civilians To Like Abuses
DoJ OLC's express policy is to permit -- on accusation alone, without charges -- the detention of civilians as unlawful combatants. The DoJ OLC legal counsel, on accusation alone, could also be charged under the laws of war as being unlawful combatants. This does not advocate violence against the DOJ OLC staff. Rather, it reminds the American public the problem DoJ OLC has created for all American civilians: On accusation alone, without evidence, you may be lawfully detained worldwide as an "unlawful combatant," held without charges, never given access to a lawyer, and abused in violation of the Geneva Conventions.
The American military does not have enough resources to provide front-line combat troops in Iraq the required equipment to conduct combat operations. There is no prospect that the American military can defend all civilians outside combat zones.
Americans Civilians, On Accusation Alone, Stripped Of Geneva Protections
DoJ OLC's error was to open the barn door to reciprocal, retaliatory acts against American civilians. The error was for DOJ OLC staff to "legalize" Geneva violations against unarmed civilians. The error was compounded when DOJ OLC "legalized" the detention without trial civilians who were not engaged in any illegal activity, but on accusation alone were classified as unlawful combatants.
As a retaliatory act, any American civilian, on accusation alone, may, under the laws of war, be called an unlawful combatant, held without trial, and detained indefinitely. If this happens, you can thank the DOJ OLC legal staff for authorizing the original Geneva violations against "unlawful combatants". Because of the reckless legal advice from DOJ OLC, all Americans civilians may be charged with being unlawful combatants, detained without trial, never given any access to lawyers, and denied access to evidence to expedite their release.
Reckless Department of Justice Exposes Americans To Abuse
The correct approach would have been for DOJ OLC strictly enforce Geneva. However, because of reckless DOJ OLC legal advice, and the decision of the DOJ AG not to enforce Geneva, the world without notice is authorized under Geneva to continue reciprocal and retaliatory acts against similarly designed "unlawful combatants". 

Advance Clip of Tomorrow's Russert MTP Obama Interview

TWO 2 minute closing ads from Obama of Indiana & N. Carolina

TWO new closing ads from Barack Obama for Indiana & N. Carolina.  They're both TWO MINUTE ads and extremely powerful.

Indiana "Minute" Closing Arguement Ad

North Carolina "Minute" Ad

I'm sure the pro-Clinton propaganda lobbying firm of Kleefeld & Sargent will find something wrong with it.


It Won't Be the Economy Stupid -- It will be National Security

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The 2008 Election this fall will be about National Security -- Not the economy as many are predicting.

I say that because of the news we got this week that the economy actually grew by 0.6 percent in the first quarter of this year, the same as it was during the last quarter of 2007.

I also say that because President George W. Bush is out there in the public pushing that the economy is not in a recession and that we’ve always survived these slumps.

I said back in March that we had a recession; but that the two quarters were the end of 2007 and the first of this year.  We are pulling out of it now.
 
I realize that the Commerce Department says that statistic did not meet what economists consider a definition of a recession, which is a contraction of the economy. This means that although the economy is stuck in a rut, it is still managing to grow, even if slightly.

I can’t count the number of times however, that we’ve only later found out that those statistics have been revised and now show something different.  Sometime in 2009 we will be told that we, did indeed, have a recession.

Meanwhile, while the Democrats are talking about the economy today and planning on it being the number one issue in the fall; the GOP are preparing instead, for a fight about our national security -- again.

By the time October comes around gas prices will have dropped once again to something more ‘acceptable’ to Americans (probably around $3.00 mark – even though that’s almost triple what it was in 2000 when Bush took office).  Heating and air condition bills will also drop because of it being fall.  Food prices will drop because of the lowered gas prices.

General Petraeus (not sure if this will be his replacement instead or not) is supposed to return to Congress to make an Iraq ‘surge’ report in September or October.  He will most likely report a plan to withdraw some more troops. 

President Bush of course, will give a press conference saying the ‘surge worked’.  "We are bringing 20,000 troops home to their families by Christmas time."

Take note however, bringing home 20-30,000 troops will put us back to the level we were at in January of 2007.

The President, the GOP and Senator John McCain will benefit from all of it.  They will be able to claim the economy is getting stronger, tax cuts worked, rebates worked.  They’ll claim the ‘surge’ worked, troops are coming home.  We are winning in Iraq.

If the Democratic nominee (most likely Barack Obama) is able to pull out a win in November, it will have to be a discussion on the failed policies of the Republican Party, national security failures, foreign policy and universal health care and 'change' in Washington; Somewhat like it’s been over the past 8 years of elections.

In the end, if Barack Obama wins in November, which I think he will, he will need to tread softly with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The Bush administration will be purposely pushing a ‘We are Winning’ message over the Summer and Fall. 

If President Obama should make a few mistakes and things temporally get worse or things don’t improve over the next 4 years – it will be the Democratic Party’s ‘failure’ to ‘win these wars’.  History will say that we were ‘winning in Iraq’ when Bush left office.  Things got worse when Democrats took over.

I personally think we will be forced to stay in the Middle East for years to come. 

The Bush administration put us there for that exact reason.  As John McCain said yesterday – it’s about Oil.

So my fellow Democrats or Independents -- wake up.  It won't be a fight about the economy -- it will be national security.

Obama: you can do it tomorrow on Russert

But you have to fight. Not with pig pen Clinton hooves but you need to declare a sense of urgency and light a fire on national TV tomorrow on Russert. WE need this ended. You are using a collegiate style which is respectful but too often now - ineffective and TONE DEAF against a flamethrowing opponent.

I respect your style and your cool factor but Obama this is the time to show us you can hit back hard. You've tried to land some punches, sure. But they have been jabs and parries. Ridicule works well for you. But you need to land a punch. Not below the belt but a bonecruncher. A punch with some THWACK to get heard around the country.

This is the time. Indiana. Bayh. Magnaquench. You have the facts with you. The timing is with you. Get vocal, get urgent and light a bonfire that the media cannot ignore. Crank up the  noise machine. Get it working for you again.

She made this an issue of fact in a :30. It's on the table. Carve it up.